buckeye Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 watched the big dog vid and he basically threw up his hands and admitted this winter has kicked his arse. Said he needs to take a couple of days, has a lot of work to do this weekend, and will put out a re-vamped forecast around tuesday...lol. i would imagine it will be back to the old-style jb forecast.... big time winter in the east. Now watch us torch by the end of next week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 He also looked speechless in his long ranger, glad to see him finally admit defeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 watched the big dog vid and he basically threw up his hands and admitted this winter has kicked his arse. Said he needs to take a couple of days, has a lot of work to do this weekend, and will put out a re-vamped forecast around tuesday...lol. i would imagine it will be back to the old-style jb forecast.... big time winter in the east. Now watch us torch by the end of next week.... FEB will be warm now...i guarantee you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 FEB will be warm now...i guarantee you im sure we'll hear how he still nailed it... ...at 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 did we even get a warmth delayed not denied stage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 FEB will be warm now...i guarantee you it will if we don't get the January thaw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 FEB will be warm now...i guarantee you Henry also said that February will feature a lot of snow and cold in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This winter has been colder and snowier for some than last winter at this time in the east. JB actually predicted there to be a thaw, at the time where we now have a pretty serious cold wave. I woke up to three degrees F in Central NJ this morning. Pretty ironic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If some of us here in northern Virginia could get in on the snow, it would be wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This winter has been colder and snowier for some than last winter at this time in the east. JB actually predicted there to be a thaw, at the time where we now have a pretty serious cold wave. I woke up to three degrees F in Central NJ this morning. Pretty ironic... i try not to follow all the JB said this or that threads here...but I believe he was calling for a thaw for the last week of January...not now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If I had a quarter for every time he said that winter was done in the east (south of N.E) after Christmas then I could afford to renew for a year. He was steadfast back in early November that most of our winter would occur in December. He was wrong and he admits it and that is good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm not trying to defend JB here but this winter has kicked most of the METS asses to put it lightly. I don't think anyone could of seen the sustained severe -NAO/AO in a moderate to strong Nina. Had this been a normal Nina, we would have probably been torching in the 40s and 50s right now, we likely would not have any snow cover. December could have still been cold in a normal Nina but not like it turned out for a huge chunk of the country, especially down south, and the boxing day storm would not have existed. I'm still going to argue that we will see a mild period (7-10 days) either the last week of January or in the 1st half of February. Given the consistency of blocking returning, the latter half of February and March could see the block in full force like Don S described and our winter could be very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm not trying to defend JB here but this winter has kicked most of the METS asses to put it lightly. I don't think anyone could of seen the sustained severe -NAO/AO in a moderate to strong Nina. Had this been a normal Nina, we would have probably been torching in the 40s and 50s right now, we likely would not have any snow cover. December could have still been cold in a normal Nina but not like it turned out for a huge chunk of the country, especially down south, and the boxing day storm would not have existed. I'm still going to argue that we will see a mild period (7-10 days) either the last week of January or in the 1st half of February. Given the consistency of blocking returning, the latter half of February and March could see the block in full force like Don S described and our winter could be very long. I'll give you the possibility of the first part of feb but at this point the GFS and EURO basically agree that the cold pattern stays entrenched at least for the next 10 days. The euro at 240 (the beginning of the last wk of Jan) has a west based -NAO a -AO and +PNA. The 12z GFS also paints a similar picture for this time period so while things could change, the warm up that may or may not happen is probably delayed at least until the beginning of FEB, that is if you believe the models are painting an accurate picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whacker77 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Do any of JB's pay videos ever make it to the free side? I would like to watch what he has to say in today's Long Ranger and Big Dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Do any of JB's pay videos ever make it to the free side? I would like to watch what he has to say in today's Long Ranger and Big Dog. Sometimes he has a free preview. Get a password from a buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 February = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 February = I hope this is sarcasm...( and I'm not saying it in a weenie way either) all teleconnectors, strAt warming leads the way for the cold, stormy pattern. Especially with a +Pna becoming more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'm not trying to defend JB here but this winter has kicked most of the METS asses to put it lightly. I don't think anyone could of seen the sustained severe -NAO/AO in a moderate to strong Nina. Had this been a normal Nina, we would have probably been torching in the 40s and 50s right now, we likely would not have any snow cover.I suspect that the La Niña sample size is very small and we may have to rethink our views of the possible La Niña scenarios. I wouldn't even be surprised if this summer (though not spring) delivers a second torch in a row, unlike such second Niña summers like 1971, 1974, 1989, 2000 (which was actually a third Niña summer) and 2008. Many of those were in warm long term phases or transitional phases (I'm thinking 1971, 1974 for being transitional). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If I had a quarter for every time he said that winter was done in the east (south of N.E) after Christmas then I could afford to renew for a year. He was steadfast back in early November that most of our winter would occur in December. He was wrong and he admits it and that is good enough for me. I second that, admitting error is good for some respect. Confidence goes down with a forecast but facing the lime light and saying 'I am wrong' is professional. Not to say I am better but I had a 10 day stretch in January being warm but I burned on that one. Looking at all factors I had Jan 20th on being cold so either that is the kiss of death for me since JB and Henry said it or I can take credit for beating them to knowing it would be a colder last 6 weeks of winter. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 watched the big dog vid and he basically threw up his hands and admitted this winter has kicked his arse. Said he needs to take a couple of days, has a lot of work to do this weekend, and will put out a re-vamped forecast around tuesday...lol. i would imagine it will be back to the old-style jb forecast.... big time winter in the east. Now watch us torch by the end of next week.... I'm thinking he'll say that we may be in for the coldest February since 1979, with 1934 even being a possibility. Seriously though, at least he's admitting that his forecast needs to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I think that given the state of the AO/NAO and the recent forecasts of the MJO, we have a cold and stormy pattern ahead for us in the mid-atlantic and northeast. February could bring my seasonal snowfall totals to a level which rival last season. I also believe that not all mets called for a torch this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r6inct Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i try not to follow all the JB said this or that threads here...but I believe he was calling for a thaw for the last week of January...not now Kinda funny, a group of us were planning a night out up in Boston or down in NYC for 1/28, I told my wife "no worries, it's supposed to warm up by then" after reading the thread on JB's thaw prediction. It will likely be cold in the hotel room that night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The irony of this is that JB himself kept talking about the winter of 1916-17 last Fall and how unusual it was, beng cold despite a raging La Nina. It looks like that winter may be coming back to haunt him. That winter saw the cold gradually deepen, with February actually being the coldest month. This past summer in Ottawa was almost identical to that of 1916. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wizard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 FEB will be warm now...i guarantee you For the sake of the West I sure hope so. We can't buy a frikken break this winter out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 For the sake of the West I sure hope so. We can't buy a frikken break this winter out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 whatever to that SE ridge that was being hyped all summer long.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'm thinking he'll say that we may be in for the coldest February since 1979, with 1934 even being a possibility. Seriously though, at least he's admitting that his forecast needs to change. we already had an infamous "ghosts of 1934" call for Feb 2008 & that turned into a complete trainwreck so hopefully he doesn't dust off that gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 whatever to that SE ridge that was being hyped all summer long.. Ummm, you must not have been around here during the summer. The southeast ridge ****ing lived above my head from March through October. I hit 97 on September 23rd. I hit 88 on October 11th and 85 on October 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I suspect that the La Niña sample size is very small and we may have to rethink our views of the possible La Niña scenarios. I wouldn't even be surprised if this summer (though not spring) delivers a second torch in a row, unlike such second Niña summers like 1971, 1974, 1989, 2000 (which was actually a third Niña summer) and 2008. Many of those were in warm long term phases or transitional phases (I'm thinking 1971, 1974 for being transitional). Ummm, you must not have been around here during the summer. The southeast ridge ****ing lived above my head from March through October. I hit 97 on September 23rd. I hit 88 on October 11th and 85 on October 27th. lol yea it was a fun summer-- actually the last year, from an extremely snowy winter, to a blowtorch summer with lots of severe weather and back to a snowy and even colder winter has been pretty awesome here. I havent seen these kinds of extremes in a long time. And JBG, I wouldnt mind a 1999 type summer again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 He also looked speechless in his long ranger, glad to see him finally admit defeat did we even get a warmth delayed not denied stage? He seems to be much quicker in admitting defeat when he busts too warm. If the situation was in the reverse, we'd probably still be in the cold delayed not denied stage like 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.