kwt Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yeah it does look a little further west on the radar then some of the models were progging. Some snowfall already for the New York City region though the real fun and games is starting to develop further south. Gotta love these sorts of set-ups! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 When dynamics "advect to ignite", there is NO pushing....I agree. If anything, weak waves that intensify rapidly under improving divergence take an inevitable left hand wobble, before vertical alignment takes place. In this case, the "wobble" will happen quite quickly as the wave and the UL dynamics are essentially on a collision course, as opposed to the traditional vertical tilt -> stacking process, where there is more of a dance to alignment....This thing is going to explode!! I know, folks are getting excited, but this is nothing. There will be a literal explosion in cyclogenesis around 04-06z once that DT gets in play. I can't wait to see that fireworks show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Also..to add to the point about the RUC...it has over an inch of liquid by it's 12 hour forecast for coastal/ne NJ..and NYC/LI. It's still snowing over many areas that that time. You could see this developing within hour 1 and 2 of the RUC at 23z..it was more amplified with the height field by around 20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ej257 snow lover Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 since this inland low evolved to be more explosive will this change the whole characteristics of the whole storm and the low that will track up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Hello to mega band on the RUC No surprises here as the upper levels showed this from a mile away WCT and WLI jackpot here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The RUC might not have the best track record, but I can assure you that as long as it's not completely dead wrong with it's analysis...it's solution is not as wild as it may seem. The changes occurred by the 2-3 hr panels at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 That is an encouraging radar loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This WAA in southern NJ is killing us...damn that primary lol...I'm losing out on precious QPF being wasted to graupel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This brings some crazy banding into my backyard, and almost into your backyard.... Betting that best time to sit outside is going to be from about 2am-5am. Sound reasonable? The RUC might not have the best track record, but I can assure you that as long as it's not completely dead wrong with it's analysis...it's solution is not as wild as it may seem. The changes occurred by the 2-3 hr panels at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Did that first band that just rolled through NYC give much snow? Also does anyone have good webcams for this region so us people further afield can have a little glance at the action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 will that latest RUC model change the forecasts for much of costal NJ? will projected snowfalls go up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Did that first band that just rolled through NYC give much snow? Also does anyone have good webcams for this region so us people further afield can have a little glance at the action? If you want to see the fireworks in action in NYC, there is always the beloved times square webcam. http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The snow looks so scattered and convective, but it already looks to consolidate, centralize its power, and reign terror at whoever is in the path of this deepening low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 If you read the updates Albany and NYC both noted that they are watching trends of a cloaser (tucked in low) and will adjust amounts accordingly. Watch the radar, RUC is encouraging, radar is more encouraging. 6 - 12 in CNH-NENJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Wow. Pressure is already down to around 1010mb for the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Light snow here in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Serious reflectivities making their way across the DE river into Central NJ..also strengthening from the south and moving north rapidly. Very convective in nature on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Light snow here as well. My brother in kutztown had some moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Not sure why some people on here are suprised. The surface obs have been west of what the models were depicting all day and now it seems as if its becoming more and more clear that the heavy totals will stretch pretty far back into NJ, with good totals in PA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 will be spending my evening and overnight with you guys in here to geek out over this storm, should be amazing to watch later tonight. but first have to go shovel a wimpy 2.1" of snow from what we got out here today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The 00z 500mb analysis shows that the NAM was a hair too de-amplified with it's height field across the east coast...by maybe 30-40 miles. This normally wouldn't be such a big deal, but the guidance has been very consistent with one thing: the height fields amplification is one of the main factors as to where this coastal low tracks as it rapidly undergoes cyclogenesis. We will see what type of impact this has on things..but it certainly adds some teeth to the RUC bumping west a bit. Judging by the height field on the latest analysis..it's going to be very hard to get this thing tugged due north. But it's certainly possible that things move a hair west of where the 18z guidance was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 SLP placement is right near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Earthlight, do you think there could be a favorable western wobble with the beginning of bombogenesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 If you want to see the fireworks in action in NYC, there is always the beloved times square webcam. http://www.earthcam....rk/timessquare/ Thats grand, snow really is like a drug, your never going to be totally satisfied, probably had 25-30 inches this winter where I live in England but always want to see more, even if its virtual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Serious reflectivities making their way across the DE river into Central NJ..also strengthening from the south and moving north rapidly. Very convective in nature on radar. you could say that again ,very convective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Girlfriend just hit some icing on the throgs neck. Interesting. Said it was short lived, but it wasn't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Mt. Holly needs to get out of clear-air mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 SLP placement is right near the coast Looks to be maybe a hair north and west with the 1014 contour compared to the 18z NAM. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_18z/f06.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I don't know if these are convective cells, I believe it is sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The pressure falls are directly along the coast NW of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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