Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Traffic cams in Jersey are most impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I not that worried about the 12z RGEM. I like the NAM over it anyways, has a west/warm bias most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Traffic cams in Jersey are most impressive what a shock haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I not that worried about the 12z RGEM. I like the NAM over it anyways, has a west/warm bias most of the time. whish is why its worrisome it went east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 So these models still cant get a firm grip of whats going on? Who knows but the NAM got the first storm of the year right and has been bad since. NAM has the last 2 runs of the RGEM. RGEM is intense, it just misses, not really like the GFS from 6z at all. Mess. NCEP throwing their hands up ,cant blame them. I think overall the average would work best in this situation. What stinks for them is by the time they are able to publish the new versions of models (CMC) have changed. RGEM just jumped fast. They did not note significant errors. DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND...PREFERENCE FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST/WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF IS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...AND HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONGST THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z NAM ON THE EAST SIDE AND THE 00Z CANADIAN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DISTRIBUTION WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. SINCE THERE IS NO OVERARCHING MODEL TREND HERE...WILL PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH THE LOWS TRACK AND DEPTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The hills to my west are partially obscured through the snow at this point. very cool. Can't see anything here off the coast a bit. Gotta say, this looks to be AWT for a few days for most of us. Great job Upton of beating that advisory drum for a while now. Even though it's so unpredictable and still not all spelled out and has driven some to further insanity they handled it nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Who knows but the NAM got the first storm of the year right and has been bad since. NAM has the last 2 runs of the RGEM. RGEM is intense, it just misses, not really like the GFS from 6z at all. Mess. NCEP throwing their hands up ,cant blame them. I think overall the average would work best in this situation. What stinks for them is by the time they are able to publish the new versions of models (CMC) have changed. RGEM just jumped fast. They did not note significant errors. DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND...PREFERENCE FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST/WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF IS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...AND HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONGST THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z NAM ON THE EAST SIDE AND THE 00Z CANADIAN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DISTRIBUTION WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. SINCE THERE IS NO OVERARCHING MODEL TREND HERE...WILL PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH THE LOWS TRACK AND DEPTH. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Everyone is just worried about getting sued if there happens to be an accident due to slick roads and kids getting hurt. Yup. It's become a rather pathetic state of affairs. On one side the lawyers are waiting for the accident to occur so they can show up on the scene, even if it means getting there by snowmobile to take the case. On the other side, we have become so letigious, that it all may backfire on the same lawers, and sue happy folks who put us there. Pretty soon, we will become such a nation of whimps that we won't even venture outside without the aid futuristic safety bubbles to keep us warm and safe. Then there will be no one left to sue. [/thread tangent off] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Indeed. It probably won't snow for a while but I do hope that is the end of the sun here until tomorrow. To me it's not a fun sight on a day where you're expecting snowfall. LOL patience grasshopper, you guys should get the goods, this is a slow moving band hats all. Look at RUC timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 very cool. Can't see anything here off the coast a bit. Gotta say, this looks to be AWT for a few days for most of us. Great job Upton of beating that advisory drum for a while now. Even though it's so unpredictable and still not all spelled out and has driven some to further insanity they handled it nicely. Hang in there, ripping pretty good in Norwalk now, visibilities finally coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 LOL patience grasshopper, you guys should get the goods, this is a slow moving band, tansy all. Look at RUC timing LOL I know, that's why I said the timing part, but who doesn't hate to have to see the sun? Ugh. I can see patches of blue sky right now. I'll wait till 2-4 PM to crank or even later but please, no blue or sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hang in there, ripping pretty good in Norwalk now, visibilities finally coming down. Great! Looks to be up to about Fairfield or so now, eh? The slower it comes the longer it'll last, I'm good with waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Great! Looks to be up to about Fairfield or so now, eh? The slower it comes the longer it'll last, I'm good with waiting. looks like its going to be a while before it gets over to the new haven area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM shows that SE MA and coastal MA get a couple/few inches from the storm on sunday southern jersey does the best though on saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Great! Looks to be up to about Fairfield or so now, eh? The slower it comes the longer it'll last, I'm good with waiting. cloudy here. edit just saw a couple flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Srefs and Nam are in agreement... heavy snow For se NH and s Maine and ne mass sat night into Sunday.. 4-8 inches lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsh Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Moderate snow in Greenwich now, 1/4 inch downtown, 1"+ mid country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 LOL patience grasshopper, you guys should get the goods, this is a slow moving band hats all. Look at RUC timing Not sure I'd trust the RUC. It's less and less robust as time goes by. 14z 6h-8h at 700 vs 11z.... I don't trust it but it's ugly. Speaking of ugly GFS is rolling. Continues to hold back the vorticity max along the lines of the 6z. On the same token more robust with the trough coming through here dropping 1-3" overnight over most of EMA. EDIT: It's well west of the 6z through 30, slower than the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hang in there, ripping pretty good in Norwalk now, visibilities finally coming down. We're moderate in Stamford.....band looks nice and should setup favorably.... 1/2" down so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hey guys... game on for 2-4 tonight.. probably 4-7 in the western hills. Interesting that we could get some snow from that separate system on Saturday night. Not an easy forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM shows that SE MA and coastal MA get a couple/few inches from the storm on sunday southern jersey does the best though on saturday. Of course it does. 2011 might as well be 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just got home from the office..Snow has started back up here on the hill 25.3/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 33 doesnt look half bad for sections of SE SNE in future panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z GFS is holding back more energy, probably a good sign for sat night/sunday purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 More realistic than the three amigo depiction of the NAM. Close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just got home from the office..Snow has started back up here on the hill 25.3/16 Nothing here in Woodstock. Clouds with sun poking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 looks like the GFS is back ...should be good snows for eastern sections after 42, with the low a good 100+ miles west from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is becoming the definition of insanity. Not one run is the same or even close...every six hours every model is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nice hit for cape and se mass by hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z RGEM is not that bad Scott. Clips SE MA / CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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