Rtd208 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Assuming 12:1 ratios, that .70-.75" in Philly would probably be a 6-10" snowfall, the .75-.85" in NYC would be around an 8-12" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i really like the track of the vortmax in terms of getting significant banded precip into the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol let me do this take a line from dc to balt to lancaster to abe to stroudsburg to just south of alb is the .5 line .75 runs from lewes to dover to salem co nj to just east of trenton to nyc to then to As always, great job with the detailed play by play...thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol let me do this take a line from dc to balt to lancaster to abe to stroudsburg to just south of alb is the .5 line .75 runs from lewes to dover to salem co nj to just east of trenton to nyc to then to i feel bad for you...it gets annoying with the imby next to the shade tree post......guys if nyc is getting .75+, good chance ewr is similiar.......lets relax and use ur heads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i feel bad for you...it gets annoying with the imby next to the shade tree post......guys if nyc is getting .75+, good chance ewr is similiar.......lets relax and use ur heads... You are correct and it is why when I saw your east-west of the GSP post, I deleted my request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i really like the track of the vortmax in terms of getting significant banded precip into the region You're right...some folks may look to get a nice localized thump thrown in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 possibly an 8-12 inch storm...a big ****ing deal as Mr biden informs on occassion I'm not sure 4-8 inch storms happen anymore...its either 1-3 or 12-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ewall map so everyone can see the classic H5 signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ok, try to cut down on the IMBY posts as well as the attacks on people asking for IMBY forecasts. Try using the report button instead. No need to create any acrimony here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 tombo...any more goodies down the road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 so whatever you wanna call it, miller b, miller a, hybrid....at any rate, its two lows. and when the energy xfer takes place, obv we need it to explode. any capturing would make this hook left again, dec 26th anyone? obv not at that strength but get in the bands and u top out. not in the bands, you crap out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ok, try to cut down on the IMBY posts as well as the attacks on people asking for IMBY forecasts. Try using the report button instead. No need to create any acrimony here. my bad i forgot about the report button. my fault mod. please excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 tombo...any more goodies down the road? yea, the euro isn't bottling up the cold air like holding it back like the 0z run. It sends a piece i down at hr 174 accompanied by a cold front that gives everyone another lgt to mod snow event. A big piece of the pv is still sitting up in western canada, so we may see a cutter towards the end of the run not sure yet. The cold front forms a miller b and tracks over bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ratios are going to enhance per this run. The track is perfect too -- gets rid of any mixing worries. Not everywhere. You can changeover to sleet easy along NJ coast with temps in the low-mid 20's...it has everything to do with the track and the lower level jet dynamics here...I've personally wittnessed it time and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z JMA shows .75-1.00 QPF for the NYC area http://grib2.com/jma...PRECIP_96HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is it correct if I say that we still don't know whether it will be a straight Miller A(like the EURO) or whether there will be coastal redevelopment(like the NAM)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 C'mon Tom, you only gave the I-95 cities. I know you know there are folks here in this thread that are inland. What about ABE, AVP, RDG, etc? He did right here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/7460-nycphl-potential-jan-11-14-event-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__246087 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z JMA shows .75-1.00 QPF for the NYC area http://grib2.com/jma...PRECIP_96HR.gif you gotta take off the .1-.25 qpf it has for today, thats an accum map so it shows that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 He did right here: http://www.americanw...post__p__246087 I saw it after reading further into the thread and deleted my own post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 He did right here: http://www.americanw...post__p__246087 Yup, looks like 0.5" qpf from the Poconos up to Albany..... many will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is it correct if I say that we still don't know whether it will be a straight Miller A(like the EURO) or whether there will be coastal redevelopment(like the NAM)? The NAM is doing what it usually does on these systems at the tail end of its range...ramping them up too much/having too strong a primary/or being too far west...think of how many times out to sea events are portrayed as a hit by the NAM in the 72-84 hour range when all other models are a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So is 12 inches a max situation with the upcoming storm and do any models show 1+ qpf ? I read last night on another board that as we get closer Sunday and Monday some of the models could start upping the Liquid over the area once it gets a better handle on the system. Unless this storm is Flying or doesn't really bomb out I have a hard time believing that the heaviest hit areas max out under a Foot with a coastal low. The storm on the 26th may have been a different breed but I was on the outer edges of the heavy precip and still received 12" and it really only snowed like 12 hrs where I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 that's a perfect H5 track for NYC. Regardless of what the QPF output says, that is likely to be a double digit snowfall for the region if it pans out like that. I agree. Verbatim that 500mb signature will capture the low somewhat and bomb it out east of NJ. I still don't think it stalls like the Boxing Day storm but it could slow down a little and develop more banding signatures like we saw then. At max I see this as maybe a 12-15" event, not 20-30". Still very impressive however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I agree. Verbatim that 500mb signature will capture the low somewhat and bomb it out east of NJ. I still don't think it stalls like the Boxing Day storm but it could slow down a little and develop more banding signatures like we saw then. At max I see this as maybe a 12-15" event, not 20-30". Still very impressive however. Yea, and if you look back through history, we've had quite a few big bombs that had the NAO phase changing from negative to positive. I remember that PD2 was one such system. If you remember, the Boxing Day Blizzard's phenomenal snowfall amounts were due more to incredible snowfall rates for some lucky regions rather than outstanding longevity; it lasted less than 24 hours. If it takes a favored track, this could possibly produce more snowfall than the Boxing Day blizzard did for Eastern Long Island (although they might still change over) and perhaps similar amounts for us (if you gauge it by the airport snowfall numbers.) It's comforting, especially when you see the radar and see the current snow escaping just south of us, eh JM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 DT via facebook: *** ALERT ALERT*** 12Z EURO STAYS THE COURSE FOR BIG COASTAL LOW .... HAS MORE PRECIP --ALL SNOW over RIC... amounts Increase from 0.54" on 0z run to 0.67" on the 12z run ... Heavy snow into eastern MD NJ NYC CT LI RI Boston .... (looks like a 6-12" even there). Hard to ignore th...is and go with the GFS and GEEM which flip flop every other run i tried to un-bold it... no luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I agree. Verbatim that 500mb signature will capture the low somewhat and bomb it out east of NJ. I still don't think it stalls like the Boxing Day storm but it could slow down a little and develop more banding signatures like we saw then. At max I see this as maybe a 12-15" event, not 20-30". Still very impressive however. JM1220, great post. This won't have the same intense bands or slow movement like that one did, unless it closes off sooner and forms a cutoff low a la JAN 1964. Which can still happen, however, but odds are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 JM1220, great post. This won't have the same intense bands or slow movement like that one did, unless it closes off sooner and forms a cutoff low a la JAN 1964. Jan 1964 eh? That's a storm that doesnt get mentioned very much lol. As a matter of fact, this is the first time I've heard it mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yea, and if you look back through history, we've had quite a few big bombs that had the NAO phase changing from negative to positive. I remember that PD2 was one such system. If you remember, the Boxing Day Blizzard's phenomenal snowfall amounts were due more to incredible snowfall rates for some lucky regions rather than outstanding longevity; it lasted less than 24 hours. If it takes a favored track, this could possibly produce more snowfall than the Boxing Day blizzard did for Eastern Long Island (although they might still change over) and perhaps similar amounts for us (if you gauge it by the airport snowfall numbers.) It's comforting, especially when you see the radar and see the current snow escaping just south of us, eh JM? Ugggh. I bought into it last night hook line and sinker after I saw the NAM lurch north at 0z. The sun's shining through the clouds here somewhat, meaning that we're getting no more than flurries for the foreseeable future. For the Tues/Wed storm, there isn't a lot of blocking to the north to really slow it down and maybe stall it. It might slow down when it starts to bomb but won't stop. Either way, there's no way I could ever say no to 12" of snow. I'm a little less worried than before about a hugger track since the mean seems to be settling on a B/M track and hasn't gone west from there, but it's still a small possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The Euro expands the Precip to the west of the low, more amplified and great middle of the road track for many. GFS continues with its de-amplified and off the coast routine, when its individual ensembles are mainly depicting BM tracks or coastal hugger tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ugggh. I bought into it last night hook line and sinker after I saw the NAM lurch north at 0z. The sun's shining through the clouds here somewhat, meaning that we're getting no more than flurries for the foreseeable future. For the Tues/Wed storm, there isn't a lot of blocking to the north to really slow it down and maybe stall it. It might slow down when it starts to bomb but won't stop. Either way, there's no way I could ever say no to 12" of snow. I'm a little less worried than before about a hugger track since the mean seems to be settling on a B/M track and hasn't gone west from there, but it's still a small possibility. How many hours of snow are we talking about JM? 12-18 hours? I have a feeling this will be one of those night time storms =\ I think it can still go inside the benchmark, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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