NESIS rating? Boxing Day Blizzard

[09-10 analogy]

Might as well start this one up. This was a fascinating storm in so many ways. It was resistant to prediction (to say the least), it had massive scope, it was a memorable blizzard for some, a memorable screwjob for others. It gave Atlanta its first white Christmas (I believe) and was a top five storm for both Norfolk and New York.

So where will it rank?

[Paweatherguy1]

Might as well start this one up. This was a fascinating storm in so many ways. It was resistant to prediction (to say the least), it had massive scope, it was a memorable blizzard for some, a memorable screwjob for others. It gave Atlanta its first white Christmas (I believe) and was a top five storm for both Norfolk and New York.

So where will it rank?

Since the storm basically skipped DC/Balt, and was really only a more "moderate" storm for philly, in terms of their bigger storms, I will go with a 3.

This is simply due to the fact the storms highest impacts were on a fairly small area.

However, the fact that it had a large impact on the south could push it up to a 4.

[Amped]

It is about even with 1969. The scale gives no points for the 6+ totals in the south and no points for blowing and drifting.

[Sunny and Warm]

I made it a low 3, but it could be a high 3. It didn't impact a large enough area to deserve more, no matter how great it was for NYC and locales nearby. Philly had 12"; Boston 18", and NYC 20". DC and Balt got screwed, and in my opinion, you need all the major cities to be involved in order to get to a Nesis 4. None of the totals for PHL, NYC, and BOS were record breaking or nearly so, and that certainly helps as well for score. Don't get me wrong, it was a great storm, and amazing to see on radar, wv etc. However, its "limited" impact will hurt its score.

[Paweatherguy1]

It is about even with 1969. The scale gives no points for the 6+ totals in the south and no points for blowing and drifting.

I thikn that the fairly large area of 20-30 inches over NYC and NNJ will push that up a bit...also, does it include the Richmond and Hampton Roads areas in ratings?

Also, I'm pretty sure that they do include areas further south in their ratings.

[09-10 analogy]

Isn't 4" the cutoff?

Obviously a lot of things about this or any other storm can't be captured by a NESIS rating. But yeah the snow amounts in the Southeast, while noteworthy, don't mean anything.

[Paweatherguy1]

It is about even with 1969. The scale gives no points for the 6+ totals in the south and no points for blowing and drifting.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/docs/squires.pdf

Just for your reference...if you look at their maps, as I can't beging to understand their calculation methods, they are using data points not only from the north east, but from Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee, NC..so on. I would imagine that those do get included in the final factoring of the score.

[Sunny and Warm]

Isn't 4" the cutoff?

Obviously a lot of things about this or any other storm can't be captured by a NESIS rating. But yeah the modest snow amounts in the Southeast, while noteworthy, don't mean anything.

The Superstorm of 1993 received 12.52points for the size of its impact area, which included the south from Tampa to Maine. It's number 1 on the list, followed by 1996. The only two Nesis 5 storms. I can't believe I'll ever see as great a storm as those, and when compared to those two, this one will fall short. How short? Don't know.

[Fozz]

I say it's a NESIS 4, since it brought significant snow to so many southerners, and of course heavy snow to the coastal mid-Atlantic and all the northeast cities of 40N. It could be a 3, but I'm thinking it's 4.

[Paweatherguy1]

This thread is a real powder keg IMO...I think that you are going to get a lot of fighing about this between the DC/Balt folks with the guys further north and east.

In any case, due to the fact there was snow from Alabama to Maine, a large area in the southern states of 4-10 inches, including Northern Georgia, North Carolina, and even higher amounts in western NC....as well as the very large hit given to southern VA...well, if that 69 storm is a 2, then this storm is at least a 3.

[09-10 analogy]

This thread is a real powder keg IMO...I think that you are going to get a lot of fighing about this between the DC/Balt folks with the guys further north and east.

In any case, due to the fact there was snow from Alabama to Maine, a large area in the southern states of 4-10 inches, including Northern Georgia, North Carolina, and even higher amounts in western NC....as well as the very large hit given to southern VA...well, if that 69 storm is a 2, then this storm is at least a 3.

Well I want to make it clear I did not post this to be controversial or to create any problems and I hope people don't use it for the purposes of intra-regional infighting. I'm really interested in what folks' opinions are of this storm's historic significance. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if it got a 4: it was a truly impressive system. I just hope this thread doesn't degenerate so that it has to be deleted.

[djr5001]

I am thinking 4 based on how many big cities (for population factor of calculation) do fall in the 10-20" range going as far south as a few in NC and VA (Norfolk) in that range. The storm is not record breaking for the northern big cities but Philly, NYC, Boston, and New Jersey will all have their population factor in the 10-20" if not 20"+ (Northern NJ) portion of the calculation. DC not factoring in may keep it from a 4 too though, as well as other items not factored into the equation such as travel nightmares on a holiday weekend around the big eastern cities or the high wind/blowing/drifting snow.

[Ian]

4 of some sort imo

[Ian]

This thread is a real powder keg IMO...I think that you are going to get a lot of fighing about this between the DC/Balt folks with the guys further north and east.

it's a valid question.. people should learn to control themselves

[Paweatherguy1]

Well I want to make it clear I did not post this to be controversial or to create any problems and I hope people don't use it for the purposes of intra-regional infighting. I'm really interested in what folks' opinions are of this storm's historic significance. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if it got a 4: it was a truly impressive system. I just hope this thread doesn't degenerate so that it has to be deleted.

I think we will be fine as long as people don't start trying to throw faulty information into the discussion to back up their points since the storm missed them...and not saying this is you btw.

However, just for the record, the snows in the south do get factored in, and anything over an inch gets factored in.

[Paweatherguy1]

it's a valid question.. people should learn to control themselves

Completely agree Ian...I just feel the mods could have their work cut out for them in a thread like this.

As I said, even though it missed me, I think high end 3 or low end 4.

[das]

This thread is a real powder keg IMO...I think that you are going to get a lot of fighing about this between the DC/Balt folks with the guys further north and east.

In any case, due to the fact there was snow from Alabama to Maine, a large area in the southern states of 4-10 inches, including Northern Georgia, North Carolina, and even higher amounts in western NC....as well as the very large hit given to southern VA...well, if that 69 storm is a 2, then this storm is at least a 3.

Not sure I understand the first comment. This storm was a powerhouse that affected a broad swath of the most densely populated corridor in the US. Just because it did this revolting pirouette around "MY" densely populated area (grrr, growl, snap) does not lessen the overall impact of the storm. Most are intelligent enough to figure this out.

Edited to add: I think it'll get a high 3 or low 4.

[SNO]

Solid 3

[Dino]

Just looking at other NESIS maps I'd have to say a mid-3.

[Huffwx]

The correct answer is high end 3--- NEXT ISSUE>

[RU848789]

My simple crude method would be to look at what this storm did in the major cities:

DC/Balt - not even a significant snowstorm except S/E of the cities (1, at best)

Philly area - mostly 8-16" snowfall amounts (solid 3)

NYC area - mostly 18-30" snowfall amounts, including top 3-6 all-time in places like Newark/NYC (I'd give it a 5)

Boston area - mostly 8-18" snowfall amounts (solid 3)

Add them up and divide by 4 and you get 3.0, although I think the score will be a little higher than that, just because the NYC/NJ/CT metro area is still the most populated in the US, so that might nudge the score up a bit. I'll go with 3.5.

[Fozz]

Don Sutherland, why do you think this is only a NESIS 2?

[Baroclinic Zone]

I went with a low 4. The population area encompassed by this storm was pretty large.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm thinking high 3, maybe low 4

Did it get enough to the west?

[Dalfy]

low four.. it had a large impact but dc/baltimore region was skipped over which lowers its score.

If it had encompassed the dc area with larger amounts of snowfall then Id say a low 5 or at least solid 4.

[Eskimo Joe]

Since the storm basically skipped DC/Balt, and was really only a more "moderate" storm for philly, in terms of their bigger storms, I will go with a 3.

This is simply due to the fact the storms highest impacts were on a fairly small area.

However, the fact that it had a large impact on the south could push it up to a 4.

Philadelphia got a foot of snow, with two foot drifts. Definitely more than a moderate event.

Even so, I really do agree with the southern snows, KATL was significantly impacted and there were numerous Civil Emergency Messages issued in Alabama.

[gymengineer]

low four.. it had a large impact but dc/baltimore region was skipped over which lowers its score.

If it had encompassed the dc area with larger amounts of snowfall then Id say a low 5 or at least solid 4.

No way it would have ended up a 5 even if DC/Balt got a foot. The way the NCDC does the calculation, using only 1st order and COOP stations, huge patches of 20+" is hard to come by. People are going to complain when the map comes out that various spotter reports of 20"+ aren't on the map. Adding DC into the 10"+ contour does little to push the score up to a 5. Some of the posts in this thread imply that the process is more subjective than it actually is-- as in people are identifying factors that don't raise the score above many other historic snowstorms.

Kocin and Uccellini's methodology was a bit more subjective than the NCDC's with their own contouring of the snowfall, but probably yielded better results because of the thought given to make the contouring make sense (see 4/1/97 map-- the difference between KU and NCDC is striking).

My guess is that this storm will end up a solid 3-- not too far from 2/11/06.

[Scotty Lightning]

Lots of surface area with this storm that affected four major cities.....three out of four with over 1' of snow or greater. I would go a borderline high 4.

[clskinsfan]

Only one large population center was skipped. DC/Balt/Nova. The largest population center on the East Coast was crushed. As well as its impact on the south. It's a low end 4.

[ArtRosen]

A 5 in my book. The storm caused flooding in California, brought snow in Alabama and Georgia and caused a huge blizzard for every state from New Jersey northward.