October 2026

[steve392]

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Dry and sunny days lead to an overperformance of high temps. Friday probably hits 80. Low 70s Halloween 

Gross!  Starting to remind me of 2024 fall minus the wildfires. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

Gross!  Starting to remind me of 2024 fall minus the wildfires. 

Every even year this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024) has had record warmth in the early part of November. It looks like the trend will continue this year.

[psv88]

48 overnight

[donsutherland1]

The AIFS ensembles are particularly warm for the first week of November. The regular ECMWF ensembles are still warm (highs in the 60s), but cooler than their AI counterparts. The extended range of the NBM is also closer to the regular ECMWF ensembles. Both sets of ECMWF ensembles have high spreads (uncertainty), especially after November 3. 

However, the uncertainty concerns the magnitude of warmth, not whether it will be warmer than normal. The idea of a warmer than normal start to November has been a recurrent theme on the guidance. The most recent ECMWF weekly guidance is below.

 

[SACRUS]

58 / 40 and the great stretch continues for late October.  A touch cooler today and Wednesday then Thu - Sat should send most back to the 70s and temperatures will peak Friday with mid perhaps upper 70s.   Overall warm 11/1 and beyond and dry through the 2nd with the next chance of meaningful rain towards the 2nd as weep trough into center of the nation.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  81 (1963)
NYC: 82 (1963)
LGA: 79 (1963)
JFK: 78 (1963)


Lows:

EWR: 27 (1936)
NYC: 28 (1936)
LGA: 33 (1976)
JFK: 31 (1976)


Historical:

 

1764 - A "very remarkable storm of snow with high winds" produced 22 inches at Rutland in central Massachusetts. (David Ludlum)

 

1929 - A snowstorm dumped 27 inches upon Ishpeming, MI, in 24 hours to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

1943: Coastal storm ends drought, rains on 25th - 28th DC had 3.41 inches of rain and Baltimore got 5.00 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1962 - An early season winter storm over New England blanketed northern Maine with 7 to 16 inches of snow, and southeastern New England with up to 3 inches of snow. Worcester MA received a record 4.7 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)  The low temperature of 21 °F is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Richmond in October. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain from Virginia to New York State. Fallen leaves made roads and sidewalks slick, and also clogged sewers. Rainfall totals of 1.55 inches at Newark NJ, 1.54 inches at Harrisburg PA, 1.27 inches at Scranton PA, and 1.22 inches at Atlantic City NJ, were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure brought snow and gale force winds to the Great Lakes Region, and snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 47 mph at Lansing MI, and reached 55 mph at Pierre SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Wintry weather invaded the northwestern U.S. A storm crossing the Central Rockies produced up to 23 inches of snow in the mountains east of Salt Lake City UT. "Indian Summer" continued in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Afternoon highs of 71 degrees at Marquette MI and 72 degrees at Sault Ste Marie MI were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996: Thousands of homes in southern and central Texas were without power after strong storms dumped as much as a foot of rain. The Frio, Guadalupe, and Llano rivers spilled their banks, making roads impassable and stranding some motorists. The Llano crested at 30 feet -- 18 feet above flood stage -- and Llano County sheriff's deputies were evacuating homes downriver. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2003: A strong cold front moved through the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon, causing an outbreak of severe weather. An F0 tornado touched down in Hainesport, NJ, killing one person. This was the first tornado fatality in Burlington County, NJ history both in modern tornado records kept since 1950, and in reliable unofficial records extending back into the 1700s. The tornado cut a path 1/2 mile long and 30 yards wide. Although the tornado was F0, it is considered a significant tornado, usually F2 or greater, because of the fatality. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida. 

2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida. Marine boats sank, four homes destroyed, and part of a hospital roof collapsed. Hundreds of trees and power lines were down, but fortunately there were no serious injuries. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

[Stormlover74]

12 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Every even year this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024) has had record warmth in the early part of November. It looks like the trend will continue this year.

 

Not sure about record warmth yet but does look solidly above average. Which by next week is 65 to 70

[winterwx21]

I see after the late week 70s it looks like a minor cooldown for Halloween with high temps likely low-mid 60s. But a very warm week next week with 70s. In the long range the 2nd week of November looks like much cooler air that might end the growing season here. 

[bluewave]

This warm up into early November will give a boost to the fall rankings which are already around 15th warmest for our area since September 1st.

 

[donsutherland1]

The most recent NBM cycles have grown slightly cooler for the start of November. Nevertheless, readings remain well above average.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I see after the late week 70s it looks like a minor cooldown for Halloween with high temps likely low-mid 60s. But a very warm week next week with 70s. In the long range the 2nd week of November looks like much cooler air that might end the growing season here. 

It should get a lot more active. NAO/AO will be dropping, PNA rising.  Ensembles are getting a lot wetter. 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It should get a lot more active. NAO/AO will be dropping, PNA rising.  Ensembles are getting a lot wetter. 

agreed

[jm1220]

40 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

agreed

Congrats Philly.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another fair day. Highs will top out in the lower 60s across much of the region. Afterward, temperatures will warm into the middle and upper 60s for the remainder of the work week. Much of the region could approach or reach 70° on Friday. Unseasonable warmth will continue into the start of November. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C. ENSO Region 3.4 breaks the all-time record most recently set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was +12.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.303 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.4° (1.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.