September 2026 Medium/Long Range

[WxUSAF]

Some warm days this week, another weekend rain event, then really seems like fall arrives in earnest with a series of strong cold fronts. Probably frost risk for far NW burbs and freeze risk for the mountains.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Some warm days this week, another weekend rain event, then really seems like fall arrives in earnest with a series of strong cold fronts. Probably frost risk for far NW burbs and freeze risk for the mountains.

[frd]

 

 

 

 

[pazzo83]

just in time for a return to summer around Halloween.

[frd]

14 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

just in time for a return to summer around Halloween.

Ying Yang 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Wasn't it just last week people were questioning whether we saw the last 80s of the year?  Lol.

Barely even made it a week.

[frd]

15 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Wasn't it just last week people were questioning whether we saw the last 80s of the year?  Lol.

Barely even made it a week.

Multiple days of  80s coming up. Upper 80s for DC is also possible on Friday . After next week's cold shot warmth returns. Then back and forth. 

[frd]

[Ji]

Beware of mid October cold. Usually doesn’t bode well for winter

[Maestrobjwa]

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

Beware of mid October cold. Usually doesn’t bode well for winter

I thought it was just October snow, lol

[JVscotch]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Beware of mid October cold. Usually doesn’t bode well for winter

I think it’s more about the end of October, but obviously a lot of variables and we are in a super El Niño .  Mid-October 2009 had the nice -EPO cold shot with two low going to our south and bringing chilly rains.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

Would you take the over or under for an 80 degree Halloween?

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS.  Euro is back on board for Sunday.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, Ji said:

Beware of mid October cold. Usually doesn’t bode well for winter

NAO's only inversely correlated month of the year to DJFM NAO is October.. opposite correlation.. the Pacific is linearly correlated at 57%, but sometimes in El Nino's a favorable Pac October shifts to unfavorable (+EPO) for the Winter. That might just be because of not enough examples though. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I thought it was just October snow, lol

I would say October snow is a good thing. In 2002, it snowed here in October 4x.. I had 125" that Winter, easily best of my lifetime. It snowed all the way until early May 2003, patterns tend to be longer term. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Would you take the over or under for an 80 degree Halloween?

Under. Late Summer to September has been pretty cool. 

[Ji]

WB 18Z EPS.  Euro is back on board for Sunday.

Not good

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Under. Late Summer to September has been pretty cool. 

In spite of the forecasted warm cold see saw?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

In spite of the forecasted warm cold see saw?

Nothing too unusual 

[WxUSAF]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Under. Late Summer to September has been pretty cool. 

Huh? Where and by what metric? Nationwide the start of this month was near or at record warm. Our area is AN for September.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Huh? Where and by what metric? Nationwide the start of this month was near or at record warm. Our area is AN for September.

Locally. I just had 3 consecutive nights in the 40s. No major heatwaves late Summer for the 3rd consecutive year.

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Locally. I just had 3 consecutive nights in the 40s. No major heatwaves late Summer for the 3rd consecutive year.

Ok. We haven’t torched as much as other places, but we’ll still post an above normal month easily. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Above normal is the not-so-new normal.