Fall 2026 Med/Long range discussion

[sbnwx85]

That's a lot moisture

[BeastFromTheEast]

Looking forward to some Polo Remnant rains next week! What a journey it’ll take out of the Pacific! 

[BeastFromTheEast]

Going to feel soupy and humid again for a day or two too! 
 

Should see at least upper 60s dew points with the tropical-ish airmass

[A-L-E-K]

p big ridge signal in fantasy range on the eps

[A-L-E-K]

extended still looking mild/nino-ish

[IWXwx]

October zzzzzzzzzzz's

[SchaumburgStormer]

It’s boring as shit, but pretty stoked with the windows open weather.

[A-L-E-K]

whole region sleeping good

EPS casting mild zzzzs across much of the continent in the extended

[SchaumburgStormer]

14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

whole region sleeping good

EPS casting mild zzzzs across much of the continent in the extended

As I have gotten older, my inner normie kicks through and the “sweatshirt to leave the house morning, shorts coming back” has become top tier. 

Love this weather for football, apple orchards, and other fall shit. Plus I can send the kids back outside to play after school. 

[cyclone77]

Whatever forms in the gulf may impact the eastern half of the sub.  Zzzzz over the western sub though.

[Chambana]

Top tier stuff, night time temps have been delicious. Definitely nice to get a break on the power bill.

[sbnwx85]

6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Whatever forms in the gulf may impact the eastern half of the sub.  Zzzzz over the western sub though.

Firmly in the cone of uncertainty over here.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Zzzzz over the western sub though.

I’ll take my vitamin D while I can. Low stratus and 30s will be here soon enough. 

[A-L-E-K]

ready 2 plume

[Chicago Storm]

Halfway through October 2026 vs all strong/super El Nino winter Octobers.

[A-L-E-K]

Torching

[A-L-E-K]

 

[pen_artist]

Only got 10 or so weeks but perhaps we can still break the US tornados by state record 

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

outside brief post front cool shots, extended looks like endless mild weather

[Frog Town]

 

If I’m remembering correctly, we had a super El Niño during the winter of 2015–2016. That November brought an unusually cold outbreak, with highs in the teens around midmonth, before a more typical El Niño pattern took hold for the rest of winter.

With a recurving typhoon, Ural blocking, a weakening polar vortex, and other factors potentially lining up, I’m wondering whether we could see a similar November this year. Thoughts or rebuttals?

[A-L-E-K]

different planet and a much weaker/incomparable nino

ensembles mild into november

maybe one of us gets lucky at some point but we should all learn to embrace the pacific because it's coming

 

 

[BeastFromTheEast]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

different planet and a much weaker/incomparable nino

ensembles mild into november

maybe one of us gets lucky at some point but we should all learn to embrace the pacific because it's coming

 

 

I think we have a shot of making it through this winter without a subzero temp. Happens in about ~10% of winters and this upcoming one has a realistic shot. 
 

Also sub 20” snowfall certainly in play as well. 

[A-L-E-K]

9 minutes ago, BeastFromTheEast said:

I think we have a shot of making it through this winter without a subzero temp. Happens in about ~10% of winters and this upcoming one has a realistic shot. 
 

Also sub 20” snowfall certainly in play as well. 

let's get greedy and go for no single digits

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, BeastFromTheEast said:

I think we have a shot of making it through this winter without a subzero temp. Happens in about ~10% of winters and this upcoming one has a realistic shot. 
 

Also sub 20” snowfall certainly in play as well. 

I mentioned in the enso thread on the main forum, but honestly, pretty much everyone in the north and east is expecting a subpar winter relative to their climo. So the expectations are set. However, there are a few trolls in that thread that say absolutely ridiculous things that are completely unrealistic wrt weather, and these things will be hilarious when people bump them in the spring. People need to kinda chill on these insane assumptions because its such a strong Nino, especially with some things not behaving as expected.

Do I expect a milder and less snowy than avg winter? Yes. But thats as far as ill go.