Brian D Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 Looking forward to a wetter Sept here in the N sub, Going through my modelling method, Early Sept looks to have a rather stubborn SE ridge with LP's moving across the N. A boundary may hang out across the S sub during this time. As we move into the 2nd week, I'm expecting that ridge to breakdown, and we should start to see much cooler wx start to arrive, especially by mid month. The 2nd half of the month looks like a rollercoaster in the jet. End of the month happened to catch my eye as a very significant storm may develop in the W sub. We'll see how this works out. Definitely need good rains up here, and I think Sept will deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 Time 2 torch 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 On the bright side we might get some epic LES this winter if the lakes stay warm during cold snaps 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 On 8/29/2026 at 3:20 PM, MazooWeather said: On the bright side we might get some epic LES this winter if the lakes stay warm during cold snaps Great point you bring up there. Wouldn't hate some LES hits and possible svr chances (depending on how warm the warmth surges are) this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 On 8/29/2026 at 2:30 PM, A-L-E-K said: Time 2 torch 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 Welcome to the new norm. There is no more September, just August part deux. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 guidance hinting at a wet pattern returning to the northwoods 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 ensembles continue to offer little to no hope for anyone banking on an early fall 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 On 9/3/2026 at 6:58 AM, A-L-E-K said: ensembles continue to offer little to no hope for anyone banking on an early fall Winter cancel 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Mega nino shit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EC609 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 It's getting old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 It is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: It is Like, I was only half speaking in jest when I said winter cancel. Looking forward to that February golf. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Not gonna bother changing the snow blower's oil this fall. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Long range 12z GFS was brutal for you all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 This Christmas it'll be chestnuts roasting on an open lawn. 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 @cyclone77 and I going to start the race to double digits snow thread in late February. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 On 9/4/2026 at 7:27 PM, EC609 said: It's getting old. Not for me. 9 months of grey skies and cool to cold weather here where I have to wear slippers inside during those 9 - this is still fresh as a daisy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Cooler fall weather looks like its coming after mid-month. Average highs still firmly in the 70s though, dont expect anything too cool. Just fresh air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Friday at 12:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:02 PM Models are pretty wet across Iowa over the next ten days... beginning Sunday/Monday... with a possible large, cool ridge dropping in after that for several days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted Saturday at 04:58 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:58 AM If this model run of the ICON works out that 15-17" of rain forecast will go nicely with the 5-7" of rain that fell in the Des Moines area a few days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted Saturday at 07:20 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:20 AM Rochelle and far outlying areas should dip into the 40s Monday morning. Even Alek will see upper 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted Sunday at 12:02 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 12:02 AM Fall is arriving. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted Sunday at 01:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:28 PM On 9/11/2026 at 11:58 PM, cyclone77 said: If this model run of the ICON works out that 15-17" of rain forecast will go nicely with the 5-7" of rain that fell in the Des Moines area a few days ago. Precip hole over the Twin Cities. Ride with it, sorry Iowa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted 53 minutes ago Share Posted 53 minutes ago I recently pulled the seasonal stats for Chicago during past strong and super El Niño episodes. Dating back to 1950, there have been seven seasons that have featured an El Niño of strong to super magnitude. To shed a full light on the situation, I pulled stats both met winter (DJF) and the full October–April snowfall season. The clearest signal is snowfall. Every one of the seven strong/super El Niño seasons featured below normal snowfall during both the DJF and October–April periods. In several of those seasons, snowfall was significantly below average. When it comes to precip, it's more of a mixed signal. Both the DJF and October–April periods feature a mix of very wet, near-average and dry seasons. Temps lean warmer, particularly during met winter. DJF temps ranged from slightly below normal to well above normal, with warmer outcomes more common. During the longer span October–April periods there is more variability, with most seasons within +/- 1° of average, while a couple were well above average. ...Chicago Strong/Super El Nino Seasons... October-April Average Temp: 38.4° October-April Average Snowfall: 38.4" October-April Average Precipitation: 18.12" Met Winter (DJF) Average Temperature: 28.2° Met Winter (DJF) Average Snowfall: 29.6" Met Winter (DJF) Average Precipitation: 6.07" ............................................................. 2015-16 Season (Super El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 40.6° (+2.2°) Oct-April Snowfall: 31.2" (-7.2") Oct-April Precip: 19.80" (+1.68") DJF Avg Temp: 31.4° (+3.2°) DJF Snowfall: 16.3" (-13.3") DJF Precip: 6.94" (+0.87") 1997-98 Season (Super El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 39.7° (+1.3°) Oct-April Snowfall: 10.4" (-28.0") Oct-April Precip: 17.93" (-0.19") DJF Avg Temp: 33.2° (+5.0°) DJF Snowfall: 7.1" (-22.5") DJF Precip: 5.87" (-0.20") 1991-92 Season (Super El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 37.6° (-0.8°) Oct-April Snowfall: 28.4" (-10.0") Oct-April Precip: 19.80" (+1.68") DJF Avg Temp: 30.5° (+2.3°) DJF Snowfall: 14.5" (-15.1") DJF Precip: 3.97" (-2.10") 1982-83 Season (Record Super El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 38.0° (-0.4°) Oct-April Snowfall: 26.6" (-11.8") Oct-April Precip: 31.36" (+13.24") DJF Avg Temp: 30.9° (+2.7°) DJF Snowfall: 16.0" (-13.6") DJF Precip: 11.28" (+5.21") 1972-73 Season (Strong El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 37.9° (-0.5°) Oct-April Snowfall: 32.9" (-5.5") Oct-April Precip: 24.38" (+6.26") DJF Avg Temp: 28.0° (-0.2°) DJF Snowfall: 20.0" (-9.6") DJF Precip: 7.52" (+1.45") 1965-66 Season (Strong El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 38.1° (-0.3°) Oct-April Snowfall: 24.7" (-13.7") Oct-April Precip: 17.19" (-0.93") DJF Avg Temp: 27.5° (-0.7°) DJF Snowfall: 20.9" (-8.7") DJF Precip: 7.32" (+1.25") 1957-58 Season (Strong El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 37.2° (-1.2°) Oct-April Snowfall: 20.0" (-18.4") Oct-April Precip: 11.24" (-6.88") DJF Avg Temp: 26.9° (+1.3°) DJF Snowfall: 16.2" (-13.4") DJF Precip: 3.40" (-2.67") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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