The Iceman Posted Thursday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:08 PM CMC and GFS took a step towards the EE solution but it's crazy how far off they remain from the euro/icon/NAM. Euro leading the way would be quite the coup, no other model was even close at day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Thursday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:18 PM 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: CMC and GFS took a step towards the EE solution but it's crazy how far off they remain from the euro/icon/NAM. Euro leading the way would be quite the coup, no other model was even close at day 4. I wonder if the NAM is having it's mid-winter moment wrt putting the low center over the convection which is closer to the coast? Most likely overdone but who can say for sure. The 3k is scary if you loop it. That deep low is taking a hard left at the end and hurricane force winds arent far off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshb32689 Posted Thursday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:24 PM We’re wrapping up a trip down south. It’s been a chilly, breezy day. Ready to follow this storm home tomorrow night. Some interesting solutions on the table for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Thursday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:58 PM 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Im going to go ahead and say it....*IF* the Euro, and the NAM particularly have the right idea, this will be top 3 storm for NJ. 1 of course Sandy which most of us will never see again in our lifetimes, 2 being Ash Wednesday 1962. This could easily be #3. Just my wag attm based solely on NAM/Euro combo That 62 storm obliterated the Delmarva beaches (Rehoboth, Bethany, etc.) The pictures of the Henlopen Hotel falling into the Atlantic with the rest of the Boardwalk were insane! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Thursday at 07:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:10 PM New euro ai track is sandy-esque with that hard left turn...N part of NJ in a bad spot, S NJ would probably get the saving grace of an offshore wind component. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Thursday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:58 PM Euro Op doubles down...holy smokes! Thats worst case scenario for S NJ right there with the prolonged onshore flow, full moon, and system retrograding to the West. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted Thursday at 11:42 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 11:42 PM 6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Im going to go ahead and say it....*IF* the Euro, and the NAM particularly have the right idea, this will be top 3 storm for NJ. 1 of course Sandy which most of us will never see again in our lifetimes, 2 being Ash Wednesday 1962. This could easily be #3. Just my wag attm based solely on NAM/Euro combo Don't forget about the Blizzard of 1993. I would put that at #2 in my lifetime, since I was born in 1988. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted yesterday at 12:10 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:10 AM 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro Op doubles down...holy smokes! Thats worst case scenario for S NJ right there with the prolonged onshore flow, full moon, and system retrograding to the West. That’s awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 01:47 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:47 AM 1 hour ago, hazwoper said: That’s awful Time for a Whopper "value" meal. Thanks for the reminder @hazwoper 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted yesterday at 02:08 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:08 AM Trend today has been for the storm to not only move closer to the coast but father south as well. Not great if anyone was hoping for switch to an offshore flow by Saturday Sunday. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted yesterday at 03:06 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:06 AM I have a flight at PHL on Saturday night to Italy. I hope the storm holds off until at least then. If it doesn't, I might be stuck there for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted yesterday at 09:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 09:31 AM 52F/DP 46F at 5:30am...windy day coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted yesterday at 03:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:35 PM Picked the wrong weekend to go down to the bay and close the cottage for the season. Ugh. Forecast changed daily and who would have thunk another left hook? I have most things already inside so will go down tonight and get the rest in before the rain. Daughter will be there so we'll just hangout. Only see a small craft advisory posted, but will see what the winds do there. Edited to add: This is the Elk River across from Turkey Point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Great sunset tonight. Not sure that I've ever seen a full rainbow completely within the clouds. No rain. Beautiful. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago interested to see what this storm brings the area this weekend. looks like rain has already hit the nj coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Latest NBM with model rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Maybe it’s just because there’s still so many leaves but it sounds like the wind is overperforming out there… wish I had an anemometer. Trenton airport has gusted over 40 several times overnight though which is pretty impressive this far inland especially since it’s not the peak. Saw some impressive gusts at the shore too think the highest I saw was 77 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Had a 40 mph gust at 1:10 am. The gusts are quite high relative to the sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago The Nor’easter is located off the NJ coast this morning and will drift toward and possibly into South Jersey by tomorrow AM and finally weaken on Monday. The ChescoWx model has over 1.80" of rain here in East Nantmeal by Monday morning. Winds could gust today as high as 40 mph causing some trees to fall and some power outages. Very chilly today with highs mostly remaining in the 50's. Once the storm passes we start a warming trend with highs by mid-week in the low to mid 70's which is a few degrees above normal for the very end of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago The bay is up to New Jersey Ave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 59 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: The Nor’easter is located off the NJ coast this morning and will drift toward and possibly into South Jersey by tomorrow AM and finally weaken on Monday. The ChescoWx model has over 1.80" of rain here in East Nantmeal by Monday morning. Winds could gust today as high as 40 mph causing some trees to fall and some power outages. Very chilly today with highs mostly remaining in the 50's. Once the storm passes we start a warming trend with highs by mid-week in the low to mid 70's which is a few degrees above normal for the very end of September. Thanks Paul This is a long duration event and the flooding down along coastal sections is going to be quite significant from the back bays especially rolling through the coastal communities. So far here in Media highest wind gust 42 mph and total rain thus far is 0.15" but steady heavier rain is rotating SW down the I-95 corridor so I suspect wind and rain increases over the next hour to two then roll through the rest of the day and evening calming down a bit after midnight tonight. We have a few larger branches, leaves, saw 1 tree down and scattered power outages here around 8 am this morning along Baltimore Pike in Media maybe fixed by now. I have had people asking me if this is January 1-2 feet of snow? I am not sure about that because of the very warm Atlantic and proximity of storm even coming on shore this screams very brief snow to wind swept rain in December to February winter months. Do we know if this is a warm core storm with any tropical characteristics or possibly subtropical? Thanks for your detailed and data rich posts. Kevin Here is 40th and Central in Sea Isle currently significant flooding on gong high tide looks like 2-4 feet of water there in the street. Not sure what it looks like along Landis Avenue in the 50's to 80's streets. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The ocean is angry. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago I'm surprised they haven't called a ground stop yet at PHL. I know they did so for Sandy. Does anyone remember if there was one for the Blizzard of 1993? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Major flooding in progress in North Wildwood and Wildwood. Westbound Rio Grande closed at New Jersey Avenue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 57 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: I'm surprised they haven't called a ground stop yet at PHL. I know they did so for Sandy. Does anyone remember if there was one for the Blizzard of 1993? The storm that shall not be named was a full tropical system - a hurricane - before it got up to this latitude and transitioned. It basically lead to some changes in how a hybrid storm would be handled in the future. This was never a home-grown fully tropical system however FAA is indicating delays with a possible stop on the table - https://nasstatus.faa.gov/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: I have had people asking me if this is January 1-2 feet of snow? I am not sure about that because of the very warm Atlantic and proximity of storm even coming on shore this screams very brief snow to wind swept rain in December to February winter months. Don't overthink this one. Just look at the Ash Wednesday storm and the Blizzard of 1993, both of which happened in March, outside of the Meteorological winter months. If it happens in January, we probably get something worse than those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just a beautiful weekend lined up. Cloudy/rainy/windy/chilly...perfect weekend to do absolutely nothing. Grab a case or two, order out and become one with the couch watching football and not feel bad about it... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago .6” this morning looks like a lull in precipitation/spotty showers mostly this afternoon before maybe another slug of moisture overnight? Winds have also died down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Phillies need a rain out tonight desperately....Luzardo and Wheeler both unavailable tonight but available tomorrow. Cmon rain...never needed you so badly!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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