September 2026

[bkviking]

Cranky on X sniffing out more storminess Sat-Tues. Anyone seeing that? He sniffed out this storm weeks ago. 

[MarcmmKU]

9 hours ago, TriPol said:

I keep seeing people talk about the 2015 - 2016 record El Nino and how the winter of 2015 - 2016 was so horrible.

I sure as heck don't remember anyone complaining about the 27.5 inches of snow Central Park got in one storm.

It was bad for ski country. Terrible actually.

[MarcmmKU]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The warm start to October continues to follow the theme of warmest anomalies to start each month since the summer. 

It does look more muted now than I initially thought. More like a couple days in the mid to upper 70s. For reference central park's mean absolute maximum for October is around 79. So unseasonably warm but it happens every year. There could be a return to heat mid month however.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes the night they dropped to 39 was on my birthday =/ I'm still upset with that although it did warm up into the 70s here that day with clear blue skies and I saw two bald eagles that day. My low was 39.6.

Some interesting years in that list. Both 1933 and 2002 are on the highest minimums list but both had historic winters. Meanwhile our TV mets keep insisting that the only months above normal this year were March and April.

March through September has been a pretty warm stretch for your area also. Only May was slightly cooler in your area. It was the 5th warmest March 1st through September 26th there since the new airport site opened in late 1999. So it makes it harder to compare to the older days before 2000 with so many data gaps. 
 

Station Thread for Mount Pocono Area,

PANamePeriod in Thread1Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport10/01/1999 to 12/31/20252Tonyhanna Pocono Mountain Airport12/01/1961 to 09/30/19993Mt. Pocono09/12/1901 to 11/30/1961

Time Series Summary for POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, PA Warmest March 1st through September 26th since 2000
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010-09-26	59.4	0
2	2012-09-26	59.1	0
3	2011-09-26	57.8	0
4	2024-09-26	57.7	0
5	2026-09-26	57.5	0
6	2025-09-26	57.4	0
7	2016-09-26	57.2	0
8	2021-09-26	56.9	0
-	2002-09-26	56.9	0
10	2022-09-26	56.8	0
-	2015-09-26	56.8	0

 

Mar…+5.5

Apr….+3.8

May….-0.4

Jun….+1.5

Jul…..+0.9

Aug…+0.7

Sep…..+1.7

 

On September 29, 1999, a major weather observation shift occurred in the Pocono Mountains when the Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport (KMPO) in Mount Pocono officially began automated reporting. [1]

This marked the transition of the region's primary Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reporting site to a modern, standardized system. Prior to late 1999, data was predominantly recorded via manual, local cooperative observers or different measurement techniques, which occasionally led to minor visual bias reporting errors on scaling instruments. [1, 2]

 

Impact of the 1999 Shift

• Standardized Automation: The introduction of the KMPO automated station allowed the National Weather Service to stream consistent, real-time meteorological observations.

• Climate Baseline: This shift established the digital baseline used to create the region's ongoing historical record and formal climate summaries. [1, 2, 3]

[SACRUS]

LP Center moving into and through Belmar

[SACRUS]

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

LP Center moving into and through Belmar

Really unusual track for September. Most early season coastal storms or tropical systems track N to NE up or just off the coast. Can’t remember a September system coming in from the east into NJ before. Goes to show how strong the 500 mb ridging pattern has been associated with the record 600dm ridge a few weeks back and strong ridging since March.

[TriPol]

52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Really unusual track for September. Most early season coastal storms or tropical systems track N to NE up or just off the coast. Can’t remember a September system coming in from the east into NJ before. Goes to show how strong the 500 mb ridging pattern has been associated with the record 600dm ridge a few weeks back and strong ridging since March.

I think this would be an unusual track for any time of the year! I can't recall a storm since Sandy that went retrograde.

[nycwinter]

this is going to be a wild winter in the northeaster during this el-nino..

[donsutherland1]

Through 7 pm, New York City has picked up a storm total 2.44" of rain. Periods of rain, some of which could still be heavy are likely tonight 

After some early showers, tomorrow will begin to dry out. The temperature will rise into the middle and upper 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday could see some sunshine along with warmer readings in the lower and middle 70s. 
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -14.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.051 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[nycwinter]

i am looking forward to a milder drier week for a change..

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Beach annihilated in Wading River.

Nor Easters were/are always much worse than hurricanes in terms of beach erosion…and that played out over last few days 

It's long overstayed its welcome

14 hours ago, MANDA said:

Lots of discussion over the last few days about how this storm should be classified.  No shortage of opinions from several respected Mets.  

These two X posts make the most sense to me.  It was shallow warm core and it did separate from fronts for a short time.  No matter what it was not your typical cold season Nor-Easter and was not purely tropical. Hybrid or Sub-Tropical designation seems best way to go IMO.

Naming storms just isn't an objective scientific process. We blame the weather channel for their silly naming scheme but the NHC can be criticized too. Plenty of storms in years like 2005 and 2020 that would not have been named in the 50s and 60s and prior years. I'm sure 1933 would have had a lot more. It's a lot like snowfall measuring. Oh and there was an intentionally not named hurricane during the Perfect Storm October 1991 and that December 1994 storm should have been named too. That one was far stronger than this one. I think Chris posted a video with Dr. Joe Sobel in it?

 

17 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

would have turned to rain with the storm moving inland over NJ

It would have been all rain at the coast just like December 1992 was but much less impact than that historic storm.

17 hours ago, Northof78 said:

When the eye comes over you should get some pictures from inside the eyewall...clear with circular clouds surrounding and calm; please post em' if you can! 

Stadium effect?

16 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

skies are brightening in Seaside Heights NJ not far from the center

Seaside Heights Cam - North View

earthcam.com/usa/newjersey/seasideheights/?cam=seasideheights2 -south view

 

I wonder if it behaved like the eye of a hurricane?

15 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Posted a clip on my Facebook page. Sunshine was visible.  Trees are down all over though from this mornings burst of wind. 

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1EMczqQcta/

Landfall location near Tom's River?

15 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes just because it didn't seem bad where you were doesn't make it any less noteworthy.  

A retro nor'easter in late September that caused widespread coastal flooding is significant. Gusts of 70+ were recorded. 3"+ amounts will fall. This is definitely a significant and pretty rare event. 

Well now it's just tedious and boring.

15 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes that too. Noreasters rarely last more than a day. 

This thing has long overstayed its welcome and become tedious and boring. I can't wait until humans control the weather and kick these things out.

15 hours ago, MANDA said:

Event total rainfall here so far .99".

Very windy overnight.  Estimating gusts to 40 mph.  Winds blew hard all night.  Lots of leaves, twigs and small branches down in the yard.  Numerous power outages in my immediate area.  JCPL reporting close to 46,000 customers out across their service areas in NJ.  

Southeast New England and coastal Jersey have received the heaviest total rainfall.

Forecasts for a high impact coastal storm worked out well.

Still got rain here, sometimes heavy.

15 hours ago, MANDA said:

Pretty cool radar evolution of this event from about 8pm last evening through current hour.  Not your classic Nor-Easter look.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-comp_radar-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It's a hybrid.

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Really unusual track for September. Most early season coastal storms or tropical systems track N to NE up or just off the coast. Can’t remember a September system coming in from the east into NJ before. Goes to show how strong the 500 mb ridging pattern has been associated with the record 600dm ridge a few weeks back and strong ridging since March.

These kinds of storms don't belong in September they should not happen before late October.

16 hours ago, SACRUS said:

LP Center moving into and through Belmar

Tony from that satellite image it looks like the center crossed farther south between Atlantic City and Tom's River.

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

March through September has been a pretty warm stretch for your area also. Only May was slightly cooler in your area. It was the 5th warmest March 1st through September 26th there since the new airport site opened in late 1999. So it makes it harder to compare to the older days before 2000 with so many data gaps. 
 

Station Thread for Mount Pocono Area,

PANamePeriod in Thread1Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport10/01/1999 to 12/31/20252Tonyhanna Pocono Mountain Airport12/01/1961 to 09/30/19993Mt. Pocono09/12/1901 to 11/30/1961

Time Series Summary for POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, PA Warmest March 1st through September 26th since 2000
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010-09-26	59.4	0
2	2012-09-26	59.1	0
3	2011-09-26	57.8	0
4	2024-09-26	57.7	0
5	2026-09-26	57.5	0
6	2025-09-26	57.4	0
7	2016-09-26	57.2	0
8	2021-09-26	56.9	0
-	2002-09-26	56.9	0
10	2022-09-26	56.8	0
-	2015-09-26	56.8	0

 

Mar…+5.5

Apr….+3.8

May….-0.4

Jun….+1.5

Jul…..+0.9

Aug…+0.7

Sep…..+1.7

 

 

On September 29, 1999, a major weather observation shift occurred in the Pocono Mountains when the Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport (KMPO) in Mount Pocono officially began automated reporting. [1]

This marked the transition of the region's primary Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reporting site to a modern, standardized system. Prior to late 1999, data was predominantly recorded via manual, local cooperative observers or different measurement techniques, which occasionally led to minor visual bias reporting errors on scaling instruments. [1, 2]

 

Impact of the 1999 Shift

• Standardized Automation: The introduction of the KMPO automated station allowed the National Weather Service to stream consistent, real-time meteorological observations.

• Climate Baseline: This shift established the digital baseline used to create the region's ongoing historical record and formal climate summaries. [1, 2, 3]

So all snowfall, rainfall and temperature records from before 1999 are suspect? Well damn they were just saying how today's rainfall record is from Hurricane Gloria in 1985. 6 inches of rain in a storm that moved quickly and tracked further to the east than this one.  What about temperature records from very cold winters like 1993-94 and very hot summers like 1980, 1983  1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999? And those snowfall records from 1987  1988, 1993  1994 and 1996?

[SnoSki14]

9 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i am looking forward to a milder drier week for a change..

It's a lot more than milder. Mid to upper 80s late week

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, TriPol said:

I think this would be an unusual track for any time of the year! I can't recall a storm since Sandy that went retrograde.

Sandy was obviously the most extreme since it was such a strong system which occurred at the end of October in 2012. Henri was another much weaker system to come in from the east but was further north than this event. Henri lead to record flash flooding in August 2021. So these much stronger blocks to our north make these type of tracks possible. 
 

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/693bb9ddab5b4fb3a4aa5b79e5435b9f

 

 

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a lot more than milder. Mid to upper 80s late week

highs i am seeing for central park are upper 70's..