Tropical Storm Dolly

[tiger_deF]

After a parade of struggling invests which have failed to materialize, it looks like the Atlantic, in this anemic season, may actually be capable of producing a potentially long-tracking hurricane!
96L is not currently a threat to land, and the vast majority of models show this system recurving out to well east of the CONUS

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: doesn’t quite get it to Dolly strength but still has it as a TD although this run then weakens it while moving rapidly WNW in the MDR followed by a reformation 2 days later moving W much more slowly toward the SE Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.4N 33.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 48 12.4N 33.9W 1010 28
1200UTC 27.08.2026 60 13.0N 37.8W 1009 30
0000UTC 28.08.2026 72 13.2N 42.0W 1009 31
1200UTC 28.08.2026 84 14.1N 46.7W 1010 32
0000UTC 29.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 20.3N 67.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 156 21.0N 68.4W 1010 34
0000UTC 01.09.2026 168 20.9N 70.6W 1009 32

[WxWatcher007]

70% now

[NorthHillsWx]

*Almost* unanimous model support for *some* development but it is apparent this system has serious hurdles ahead of it. There is likely a window for development/strengthening over next few days, but then it hits a wall of shear, so options at that time are dissipation or weakening. Beyond that, location will be everything. If the system survives into the SW basin, there could possibly be an area of lower shear allowing for development as it likely recurves. If the system goes into Caribbean, it will be heading towards its grave. You're starting to see even the GFS back off on its latest run to a more realistic scenario given the harsh conditions ahead of the system. I am fairly confident this becomes a named storm but I do not think it has much of chance to be a long-tracked hurricane, and it likely won't have much window to intensify at all unless it makes it through the TUTT intact. Probably looking a weak, sheared TS for awhile 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: similar to 0Z run with TCG by tomorrow along with rapid WNW movement in MDR along with it barely reaching TS status before weakening back to a TD though this time it remains a TC and strengthens back to a TS late moving much more slowly WNW near SE Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.0N 32.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 36 13.0N 34.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 27.08.2026 48 13.2N 38.0W 1007 33
0000UTC 28.08.2026 60 13.8N 41.9W 1008 33
1200UTC 28.08.2026 72 14.6N 46.5W 1009 36
0000UTC 29.08.2026 84 15.6N 50.9W 1009 33
1200UTC 29.08.2026 96 16.9N 55.1W 1010 35
0000UTC 30.08.2026 108 17.8N 58.9W 1010 33
1200UTC 30.08.2026 120 19.0N 62.6W 1009 35
0000UTC 31.08.2026 132 19.6N 65.4W 1008 30
1200UTC 31.08.2026 144 20.5N 68.0W 1008 31
0000UTC 01.09.2026 156 21.3N 69.7W 1007 35
1200UTC 01.09.2026 168 22.2N 71.7W 1006 38

[WxWatcher007]

Definitely a cluster of ensembles trying to show a window in the western Atlantic, but you gotta survive to maybe take advantage of that. 

[Maestrobjwa]

47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Definitely a cluster of ensembles trying to show a window in the western Atlantic, but you gotta survive to maybe take advantage of that. 

If this one does survive and takes on a name at the same time Dolly passed, that's gonna be kinda eerie.

[Boston Bulldog]

Yeah the GFS short to medium term backoff was expected, though the later window for recovery and potential intensification north of the islands is real. Future Dolly has the cards stacked against it in terms of making it to that pocket however. The shear is very real, as well as decreasing RH. Basin tenor has been very hostile this year, it just seems so much more likely that this fragile system will dissipate with a whimper. 

Some classic survivor bias within ensemble intensity forecasts down the line, and even that has been reduced as we've seen downtrending across the board today. Most AI ensemble members don't even show a TC anymore!

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET delays transition to a TD for 4 days vs the 12Z run but still has it taking a similar path and gets to a TS quickly as it moves WNW a little NE of the Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 20.3N 67.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 132 21.0N 68.5W 1011 32
0000UTC 01.09.2026 144 22.4N 70.3W 1009 38
1200UTC 01.09.2026 156 23.0N 71.7W 1006 43
0000UTC 02.09.2026 168 24.1N 73.4W 1002 39

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Yeah the GFS short to medium term backoff was expected, though the later window for recovery and potential intensification north of the islands is real. Future Dolly has the cards stacked against it in terms of making it to that pocket however. The shear is very real, as well as decreasing RH. Basin tenor has been very hostile this year, it just seems so much more likely that this fragile system will dissipate with a whimper. 

Some classic survivor bias within ensemble intensity forecasts down the line, and even that has been reduced as we've seen downtrending across the board today. Most AI ensemble members don't even show a TC anymore!

Extraordinarily tough sledding across the basin this season. I kind of feel like this one is important to my peak season forecast.

[NorthHillsWx]

Morning visible reveals some decent low level spin, showing this has developed a surface low. However, convection has waned this morning and remains extremely disorganized. NHC has dropped odds to 60% of developing and it seems it has about a 36 hour window and conditions are marginal even during this time. 3 straight cherries failing to develop might be a first that I can recall, if 96L truly doesn't get classified as at least a TD. I do not believe in the "survivor" scenarios some ensembles show in the SW Atlantic. The TUTT this thing is going to run into is going to annihilate an open wave (30-40 kts shear) I would be shocked if anything gets through to develop. Just shocking how hostile the basin is from a shear perspective. We knew ENSO was going to be against development most of the season but seeing these extremely strong waves and a very active wave train with more limited SAL than recent seasons and not having a single one find a gap is wild. For perspective, if you took the background state of the Atlantic in any of the past few seasons and had the same SAL conditions and wave activity we are seeing with this year, I think the MDR would be setting records. 

[jconsor]

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck...

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092623985091494311

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, jconsor said:

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck...

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092623985091494311

 The 12Z UKMET, unlike the 0Z, says it is, indeed, a duck as it does develop it and fast! It moved TCG back up 4.5 days back to about when yesterday’s 12Z run had TCG, this evening! Like many runs before the 0Z, it has rapid WNW movement in the MDR while keeping it (mainly) a TD and then strengthens it to TS Dolly about when it leaves the MDR and slows down and later passes just NE of the Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.8N 33.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 12 13.8N 33.6W 1010 27
1200UTC 27.08.2026 24 13.6N 37.9W 1008 31
0000UTC 28.08.2026 36 13.8N 41.6W 1010 30
1200UTC 28.08.2026 48 14.4N 46.3W 1010 32
0000UTC 29.08.2026 60 15.0N 50.5W 1011 29
1200UTC 29.08.2026 72 16.4N 54.4W 1011 33
0000UTC 30.08.2026 84 17.5N 58.3W 1011 32
1200UTC 30.08.2026 96 18.6N 61.7W 1011 33
0000UTC 31.08.2026 108 19.5N 63.9W 1010 32
1200UTC 31.08.2026 120 20.5N 66.3W 1009 40
0000UTC 01.09.2026 132 21.6N 67.9W 1008 43
1200UTC 01.09.2026 144 22.3N 69.7W 1007 42
0000UTC 02.09.2026 156 23.2N 71.1W 1002 43
1200UTC 02.09.2026 168 24.5N 73.3W 999 42

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck...

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092623985091494311

Here’s the last map of the 12Z UKMET showing the strengthening 96L moving WNW.
 

Aside: I also see a very weak sfc low on those late maps moving W toward NE FL. It’s doing so due to W steering from an H5 594 dm high centered over the well inland SE. I wonder if that weak low is real:

[jconsor]

AI models are not infallible.  Sometimes they can be "blind" until the last minute, as appears to be the case with 96L.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092682443710923077

[WxWatcher007]

The invest doesn’t look half bad. Fun times in a coin flip environment.

[cptcatz]

All of a sudden looks like TS Dolly...

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

All of a sudden looks like TS Dolly...

Agreed.  If it can hold the convection overnight and still looks like this on first visible pictures we should have a least a TD by tomorrow 5am....maybe even a TS if we get a good ASCAT pass over the next 6-10 hours.  Winds were marginal TS earlier but circulation was not completely closed off, no west wind.  This satellite pic looks healthy.  Thinking along the lines of TD or TS next 2-3 days then weakening beyond that and perhaps if it can hold together enough some regeneration north of the islands or east of the Bahamas down the road.  Most guidance has shifted south and west last few days indicative of a weaker system I believe.

[MJO812]

Keeps shifting west

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Keeps shifting west

It's a thread the needle type deal because too far of a trend and it'll get ripped apart by the Antilles/Cuba. Long way to go though...guidance all over the place. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Satellite imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated 
with an area of low pressure, located several hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, have become better 
organized tonight. If the current trends continue, advisories could 
be initiated on a short-lived tropical depression or storm later 
today. However, environmental conditions are expected to become 
hostile beginning on Friday, likely ending its chances for 
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Adams

[GaWx]

 

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

Here’s the last map of the 12Z UKMET showing the strengthening 96L moving WNW.
 

Aside: I also see a very weak sfc low on those late maps moving W toward NE FL. It’s doing so due to W steering from an H5 594 dm high centered over the well inland SE. I wonder if that weak low is real:

Not only did that preceding low appear on the 0Z UK, it is actually classified a TD on the 0Z at hour 108 in the subtropics and a TS at hour 132 on a WSW track ending not too far offshore E coast of FL on the way to a hit there on Sept 3rd as it is trapped by a strong SE H5 high:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.9N 72.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 108 29.9N 72.3W 1014 25
0000UTC 01.09.2026 120 29.4N 72.3W 1011 30
1200UTC 01.09.2026 132 28.9N 72.4W 1007 35
0000UTC 02.09.2026 144 28.0N 73.7W 1005 37
1200UTC 02.09.2026 156 27.3N 75.6W 1005 38
0000UTC 03.09.2026 168 26.8N 77.3W 1003 37

Meanwhile, 96L is initialized as a TD, which is consistent with its 12Z run. Again, it remains a TD moving rapidly WNW in the MDR with a skimming of the N Leewards. It then becomes a TS but then it misses the SE Bahamas as it turns NW and NNW due to Fujihara around the preceding TS:

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.1N 33.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 0 14.1N 33.5W 1011 29
1200UTC 27.08.2026 12 13.8N 37.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 28.08.2026 24 14.2N 41.5W 1010 29
1200UTC 28.08.2026 36 14.4N 46.4W 1011 31
0000UTC 29.08.2026 48 15.1N 50.8W 1011 29
1200UTC 29.08.2026 60 16.0N 54.9W 1012 32
0000UTC 30.08.2026 72 16.8N 58.5W 1012 30
1200UTC 30.08.2026 84 18.2N 61.9W 1012 32
0000UTC 31.08.2026 96 19.3N 64.9W 1011 30
1200UTC 31.08.2026 108 20.8N 67.1W 1011 31
0000UTC 01.09.2026 120 21.9N 68.8W 1011 29
1200UTC 01.09.2026 132 22.5N 70.0W 1009 30
0000UTC 02.09.2026 144 23.6N 70.4W 1007 32
1200UTC 02.09.2026 156 25.5N 70.9W 1007 36
0000UTC 03.09.2026 168 27.2N 71.6W 1008 37

@WxWatcher007

 Complications like this fascinate me as they make the forecasting much more difficult, which makes for more interesting forecast discussions.

 

[MJO812]

2am update 

[NorthHillsWx]

I'm not quite sure how 96L hasn't been classified as at least a depression. It looks better formed than several TS's from earlier this season on the morning visible and one would think after how close it was on ASCAT yesterday and given marked improvement since, it would definitely qualify as a tropical cyclone. As for intensity, it is probably a TS given information yesterday had some TS wind barbs and it has only improved since. Me thinks this gets named at 11...

[WxWatcher007]

First advisory on Dolly coming at 11am.

[smokeybandit]

The advisory says it's expected to be short lived. So, Dolly is going to be a 9 To 5 storm?

[NorthHillsWx]

Funny, getting classified as the shear leaves it a naked swirl, whereas it was likely a TS most of the night and looked much, much better

[GaWx]

Hello, Dolly!

[NorthHillsWx]

Pretty wild the NHC had to include this in its discussion this morning:

The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely 
coincidental.  Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North 
Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists 
established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV 
Hurricane Committee.  The name Dolly replaced Diana after the 
1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.

[olafminesaw]

Interesting they are calling for it to go subtropical as it approaches the lesser Antilles. Not sure that I've ever seen a subtropical sorry that far south 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Interesting they are calling for it to go subtropical as it approaches the lesser Antilles. Not sure that I've ever seen a subtropical sorry that far south 

The aren't, they are calling for post-tropical aka open wave