August 2026 Medium/ Long Range

[WxUSAF]

Unfortunately next week is looking hot

p.s. After a morning like today I really don’t want to go back…

[mitchnick]

12 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Anything before that will be another May style head fake then?

I wouldn't call it a head fake. I envision something more gradual with full tilt a month+ later than usual. But I could be wrong, soooo...

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

p.s. After a morning like today I really don’t want to go back…

We learned this lesson in 2017, we always pay for an early cool down.

[frd]

[frd]

https://x.com/JimCantore/status/2092170030330900537

Jim Cantore @JimCantore  7h

 

 

Baking HOT ridge in the southwest and south central USA will flatten and expand east with its HEAT. This should commence over the weekend finally giving the southwest a break to start the new week. Meanwhile the Central USA, the Mid-South and Southeast bake once again as we start September. Some thunderstorm activity will give some a break.

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, frd said:

I’d really like to know what they’re smoking given how 2015 went…

[WxUSAF]

40 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I’d really like to know what they’re smoking given how 2015 went…

I was curious about this and went back to check. Fall 2015 was actually dry in the area. Not drastically, but modestly BN each month. So I looked at Fall 1997 and 1982 also. Sept 97 was pretty dry and it got wetter as fall progressed with a wet November. 82 was more of a mixed bag with some variation between the airports but you could say average-ish regionally. 
 

For more modest ninos, fall 2018 was a deluge. Fall 2014 slightly dry, fall 2009 mixed month by month, and fall 2002 was wet.

So maybe the nino=wet fall correlation is mostly in our heads from more typical ninos. With the tiny sample size of strong/super ninos, a dry September at least would be in-family. 

[nw baltimore wx]

It wouldn’t be aeration and seed season here if it wasn’t dry.

[WxUSAF]

Euro mid range bias and all that, but still. I can’t do this anymore. 

[Paleocene]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro mid range bias and all that, but still. I can’t do this anymore. 

Yeah no thanks. I was just coming on here to post that lawns in my neck of the woods by looking green and lush thanks to 5 or so inches of rain in the last 30 days. And of course the slightly less murderous sun angle. It is a nice change of pace from the last several Augusts, which I think have been pretty crispy.

But I think in some ways heat that bad in early September is worse than heat that bad in June or July. It doesn't hurt as much because the days are shorter and the sun's not as strong, but it just doesn't feel right.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro mid range bias and all that, but still. I can’t do this anymore. 

I'm at the Jersey shore from Sept 6 - 12. After the 12th it can get cool. Just give me one decent warm week at the beach.

[EastCoast NPZ]

27 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Yeah no thanks. I was just coming on here to post that lawns in my neck of the woods by looking green and lush thanks to 5 or so inches of rain in the last 30 days. And of course the slightly less murderous sun angle. It is a nice change of pace from the last several Augusts, which I think have been pretty crispy.

But I think in some ways heat that bad in early September is worse than heat that bad in June or July. It doesn't hurt as much because the days are shorter and the sun's not as strong, but it just doesn't feel right.

I think it feels worse than peak summer during the day because the lower-angle sun is hitting more of your body, rather than just the top of your head and back.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro mid range bias and all that, but still. I can’t do this anymore. 

Just in time for Fall decorating.  Sigh.

[frd]

19 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It wouldn’t be aeration and seed season here if it wasn’t dry.

Please no more 90 degree heat. I prefer 80, I am pushing aeration back to third week of Sept because of the potential heat.    

[frd]

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm at the Jersey shore from Sept 6 - 12. After the 12th it can get cool. Just give me one decent warm week at the beach.

This Friday is finally a day at the beach with some surf action. Only concern might be afternoon showers. 

[Paleocene]

12 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I think it feels worse than peak summer during the day because the lower-angle sun is hitting more of your body, rather than just the top of your head and back.

A good theory. I remember LDW in September 2019(?) being particularly brutal. Biking around with my then elementary schooler and thinking "why"

[Paleocene]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro mid range bias and all that, but still. I can’t do this anymore. 

 

GFS not far behind.

 

[frd]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 8/25/2026 at 11:07 AM, frd said:

STJ is strong in El Nino analogs. This is all El Nino's minus all La Nina's in the Fall

-PDO goes dry in the Fall, which is probably what he's pointing to. 

[frd]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

STJ is strong in El Nino analogs. This is all El Nino's minus all La Nina's in the Fall

-PDO goes dry in the Fall, which is probably what he's pointing to. 

 

You think we flip to positive PDO  by Jan 15 th ?

 

 

[frd]

 

Trending drier and temps in the medium range reflect the increasing warmth, a Sept like last year, ugh.    

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

 

You think we flip to positive PDO  by Jan 15 th ?

 

 

Probably not, since the El Nino developed we have seen 7 anomalous-sustained PNA ridges vs 0 troughs. It's usually the other way around. 6 straight months of -PNA, and PNA for Aug looks to be around 0.0.