August 2026 Medium/ Long Range

[WxUSAF]

Unfortunately next week is looking hot

p.s. After a morning like today I really don’t want to go back…

[mitchnick]

12 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Anything before that will be another May style head fake then?

I wouldn't call it a head fake. I envision something more gradual with full tilt a month+ later than usual. But I could be wrong, soooo...

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

p.s. After a morning like today I really don’t want to go back…

We learned this lesson in 2017, we always pay for an early cool down.

[frd]

[frd]

https://x.com/JimCantore/status/2092170030330900537

Jim Cantore @JimCantore  7h

 

 

Baking HOT ridge in the southwest and south central USA will flatten and expand east with its HEAT. This should commence over the weekend finally giving the southwest a break to start the new week. Meanwhile the Central USA, the Mid-South and Southeast bake once again as we start September. Some thunderstorm activity will give some a break.

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, frd said:

I’d really like to know what they’re smoking given how 2015 went…

[WxUSAF]

40 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I’d really like to know what they’re smoking given how 2015 went…

I was curious about this and went back to check. Fall 2015 was actually dry in the area. Not drastically, but modestly BN each month. So I looked at Fall 1997 and 1982 also. Sept 97 was pretty dry and it got wetter as fall progressed with a wet November. 82 was more of a mixed bag with some variation between the airports but you could say average-ish regionally. 
 

For more modest ninos, fall 2018 was a deluge. Fall 2014 slightly dry, fall 2009 mixed month by month, and fall 2002 was wet.

So maybe the nino=wet fall correlation is mostly in our heads from more typical ninos. With the tiny sample size of strong/super ninos, a dry September at least would be in-family. 

[nw baltimore wx]

It wouldn’t be aeration and seed season here if it wasn’t dry.