Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Dews n Stein n CoC.  Same old same old.

 

Ya'll can come over here if you want some summer weather.  High and lows for the month:

Sun baked 

[Cyclone-68]

30 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Big 35

And we never had another hurricane ever again. The end 

[Damage In Tolland]

No Coc anywhere, but cocked 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No Coc anywhere, but cocked 

Your brain is beer fried if you think 82/57 isn't COC in mid August. 

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, dendrite said:

heh. Found the obs. Almost the same exact deal as today. A nice TSRA to bring the swampazz back after the 100F too.

MIA,1942-07-21 15:00,METAR KMIA 211500Z 31510KT 34/23 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP152 T03390233 
MIA,1942-07-21 16:00,METAR KMIA 211600Z 31507KT 35/22 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP152 T03500217 
MIA,1942-07-21 17:00,METAR KMIA 211700Z 27008KT 35/22 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP149 T03500217 
MIA,1942-07-21 18:00,METAR KMIA 211800Z 27008KT 36/24 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP139 T03610244 
MIA,1942-07-21 19:00,METAR KMIA 211900Z 36006KT 38/21 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP135 T03780211 
MIA,1942-07-21 20:00,METAR KMIA 212000Z 13507KT 8SM +TSRA SHRA 34/24 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP132 T03390244

Synoptically there is light NW flow at 925 mb over FL still tdy, so that makes such events more likely, but as we saw ydy, the mesoscale details were everything.  It all lined up perfectly for 2-3 hr.  Law of averages and large numbers say this will happen at times!  And this time, it just happened to be at a long-term climate site.

Also, when one extreme occurs, another one like it in the short-term is often much more likely.  Similar patterns breed similar sensible wx.  How about that period Jan-Feb 2015?  Probably one of the most spectacular examples for New England, and it was so localized, confined to ern MA/RI and Downeast ME, but it was @CoastalWx "VIOLENTLY RELENTLESS! " 

It used to be thought heat bursts were rare, but once the NWS and FAA installed ASOS/AWOS in the 90s w/ so many more locations and 1-min obs 24/7, we found they are a lot more common than we thought.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your brain is beer fried if you think 82/57 isn't COC in mid August. 

This is your dew right now . Not a Coc k 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

That is quite the model battle tomorrow 

NAM 3k which is dry vs RRFS which has a squalline . I wonder which one wins 

[Brewbeer]

82/63, dews were low enough to finishing mowing 

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your brain is beer fried if you think 82/57 isn't COC in mid August. 

It mixed out a bit, but I don’t think of this as a traditional chamber airmass even though it’s a beautiful day. Dews will be back in the mid 60s there this evening into tomorrow.

There’s a larger airmass change tomorrow into Friday in NNE, but the front will be hung up way down there. Next week we may see more of a backbreaker.

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NAM 3k which is dry vs RRFS which has a squalline . I wonder which one wins 

I do think we see a solid precip shield of showers moving through later tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I do think we see a solid precip shield of showers moving through later tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

S coast south and west . Lots of mid level dry air inland 

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

The BN August crew absolutely silent

What does BN mean?  Barnes & Noble? 

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

S coast south and west . Lots of mid level dry air inland 

The dry air is relative to the track and placement of the front. The overall heaviest of rain and thunderstorms is south (NJ/LI)...maybe CT coast but I think the llvl warm front is north enough to where we get precip to build inland. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

The dry air is relative to the track and placement of the front. The overall heaviest of rain and thunderstorms is south (NJ/LI)...maybe CT coast but I think the llvl warm front is north enough to where we get precip to build inland. 

Yeah can’t rule out a couple showers scattered but the heavy stuff stays south 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Big 35

 

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Didn’t SSTs down there hit 100 a couple years ago?

Yes, but this common, esp. in shallow marshes/swamps in S FL.  Too many hype-masters act like it significant, but it is not.  Also, we have many more marine sites now, not just from NDBC, but NOS and private organizations.  You have an entire dense network dedicated to the coastal Everglades (see map attached), so finding a location that has 100 F water temp is not hard these days.

What happens if the area is in a dry period or a single location just happens to miss out on diurnal SHRA/TSRA for an extended period in the summer, that stagnant shallow water heats up, but as soon as you get heavy rain at the location, you'll see the water temp plunge into the mid 80s. 

All this is normal.

I see posts merely for hype and content, showing coastal water temps in the low 90s for the cntrl and srn part of FL, when again, this is normal every summer.

The angle used is that "this is big fuel for hurricanes!"  No, it is not. Local shallow water this warm is not a factor, and really, well before the core of a TC gets to these locations, it has already rained and the water temps have dropped significantly!

You need large areas of warm water, and not just skin deep, for a TC to thrive and get intense.  And this I bet many are not aware, even some mets.   The limit for SSTs over large, open areas (key here *is* "large" and "open") around the globe is ~30-31 C.  This is b/c at this temp, evaporation matches the incoming solar radiation, so that caps things off.  Also a factor, many areas where the SSTs are this high, the atmosphere is conditionally unstable, so large areas of SHRA/TSRA are common, never mind semi-permanent features such as the ITCZ and monsoon trof present, and this also keeps things in check for SSTs.
 

[dendrite]

37 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

What does BN mean?  Barnes & Noble? 

Below normal

[weatherwiz]

Really starting to think alot of these GFS "canes" are a mere factor of a heavy climatological skew so the GFS just wants to pump out hurricanes. 

[Damage In Tolland]

[kdxken]

What a day! Couldn't get any nicer. I almost feel sorry for the folks sweating in their imaginary humidity.