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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand


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PT time for @weatherwiz b/c 2% spinner risk for CT now!  I can see that.  Even though winds are unidirectional sfc-aloft, they are quite strong at 925 and 850. 30-50 kt W to E from central CT to ern MA.  Anything over 30 kt means spinner business.  30 -50 kt at 850 as well.  Attached is GFS sounding for ern CT at 18z.  38 kt 0-6 km shear is enoughs for supercell and 30 kt 0-1 km shear is excellent for spinner potential.  HRRR shows large areas of 0-3 km CAPE 100+ so there is your low-level stretching.  Classic tropical tor set up where best winds, relatively speaking, are at low-levels.

tor.jpg

gfs.png

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Key West spout 7/24
https://x.com/deZabedrosky/status/2081401272578531578

That's @weatherwiz on the dock letting the the vortex come over him!

Note that in order to listen to the audio and full size a video on X, you have to login now.

About as classic "true" waterspout as you can get.  Thin tall tube, slow moving, no rain, LTG, or wall cloud present, just TCU.

Notice that after the base vortex moves over the dock, it re-emerges more intense and focused.  This happens sometimes for spouts when the first come ashore.  The rapid increase in friction can strengthen the base temporarily
.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah nice gravy train west of Kevin to Dendy. But once again boring convection. Barely any.

You do realize this is a tropical air mass.  If you are looking for big tstms/svr, you should know better!

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Plenty of times we had some ltg with these airmasses. Booorrrriiiingggg.

It's 530am, why would there be that much LTG at this time of day? And I count 30 CGs in CT/MA in the last hr.  So that means a lot of ICs.  @CoastalWx"BUT I ONLY COUNT CGS!"  :lol:

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