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Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro going wild with that Typhoon

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_wpac_35.png

Not sure if it will intensify much after passing the Marianas.  It already had its first absolute peak on Fri, and now has leveled off at 140 kt.  The eye is currently 30 nm in diameter which is quite large for such a low latitude and so early that far E in this tropical basin.  Just saying that if you want a weenie super-duper intense TC, you want to see a pinhole eye, and Bavi never had that, and once the eye gets large, it does not go back the other way.

Since the Bavi will slowly gain latitude and undergo ERCs, the eye should only increase in size.  Might become an annular TC in fact (the "truck tire" look!).  Annular TCs can still be intense (Isabel in Sep 2003 was 140 kt and a classic annular TC), but they tend to stay steady-sate for a long period of time once getting that structure.

Ineedsnow will have live Guam radar up 100% of the time for the next several days? :lol:

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, tamarack said:

Didn't take long to increase from 65 mph to 145.

If we only have recon in these monsters.  I will tell you given what recons measured from the 1940s to 1987 in the WPAC, if it was done today w/ the much more advanced tech such as GPS dropsondes and the SFMR, you want to talk records and extreme that would put all to shame what we have seen in recons in the ATLC?  The few research mission recons we have had over the years in the WPAC have shown incredible stuff.

Satellite estimates can only do so much.  Dvorak estimates work best for TCs between 60 and 105 kt.  This means two things - 1) many TDs are actually weak TSs, and 2) most very intense TCs are underestimated.  The inner core of these things are strange beasts, acting more mesoscale than anything when you get to Cat 5 levels.  EPAC Patricia in 2015 would have been capped at 160 kt from satellite estimate only, but recon actually found 185 kt winds.

As a result of the above, TC intensities and annual ACE globally are underestimated, and the further you go back, esp. prior to the satellite era, the more off it is.  And really w/ recon, we only started to see things in proper detail w/ the advent of the GPS dropsonde in the late 1990s and the SFMR in 2004.  So you can't really use the database we have over the long-term for true TC trends.

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah, I'm saying even in general, it's a shame that if we ever get a typhoon stronger than Tip we will never know because we don't have recon. I'm sure that Tip has already been surpassed but we can't prove it. 

Take a look at this short paper from 2004.  Odds are it has been exceeded, and since 2004?  Several candidates (Haiyan in Nov 2013 almost certainly).
 

strongerTC.pdf

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Could hit a island or Taiwan.. it would be nice to get a peak then..  btw for being a cat 5 right now satellite looks meh compared to what we usually see

Only Ineedsnow would say MEH to a 140 kt STY! :D  It's the CoastalWx equivalent of saying MEH to 6/1/11.

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kdxken

kdxken

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wagons def south. Convection will rob alot of the moisture . Baroclinic processes basically nil in summer. Folks always fall for these widespread soakers in summer and then get upset with .50

Widespread soaker? Who said that? Doesn't look all that meaningful north of the pike.

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
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2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Widespread soaker? Who said that? Doesn't look all that meaningful north of the pike.

It's a legit summer nor'easter.  Sfc low not that strong, but the pres gradient N of it is quite good for July.  Duration coupled w/ sig higher PWATs than other times of the year, and voila!

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Thanks for the overview summary.

Dew points often have even bigger issues than temps are ASOS/AWOS sites.  I years ago looking at the OK mesonet (first installed in the mid 90s).  Mesonet sites are typically sited properly and actually geared for climate data (ASOS/AWOS are geared more toward aviation).

So many days when it was hot and high dew points, the ASOS/AWOS would almost universally had higher dew points than the mesonet.  Well, they both can't be right!  I'd take mesonet data over ASOS/AWOS the vast majority of the time.

I recall about 10 years ago during a heatwave, JFK's ASOS DP got wacky and shot to 84 one day.  Not sure what happened there.

Also, there are so many types of wx stations our there (govt and private), all for different uses.  Some are sited to monitor the local environment, like a marsh or a swamp.  So what do you think the dew point will do when the equipment is next to or in a marsh/swamp?  :D  It's similar to all the marine sites out there.  The anemometers are not all at the standard 10m elevation, so you have to account for this when talking records and the like.  AWOS sites on oil platform heliports in the Gulf are often 100 ft or more ASL.

Oh, and how about the AWOS at the smaller airports in the Corn Belt?  IA has it a lot where at a certain times in the summer, the DPs get into the 80s.  That is a local effect since corn has high evapotranspiration.  However, at times this can impact convective initiation and intensity in the state and adjacent areas!  A few papers has done studies on this.

For the Persian Gulf, dew points in the 90s are a real thing in some areas.  Qeshm Island (METAR code: OIKQ) in Iran is one such area.  Every August in the mornings, they get ridiculous DPs in the 90s w/ heat indices as high as 180!
I've checked the METARs and they are legit, given the location and how diurnally  the dew points drops in the aftn as the BL mixed out.

And the island's population is 149k.  Quite impressive that humans can live in such an environment w/ little issues!
 

okiq.jpeg

AWOS is pretty bad…especially when Tds start getting up near 70°. Then it seems like they start going up 2° for every 1° reality as they get oversaturated. It gets easy to pick out the ASOS and AWOS stations in IA when they get one of their big summer corn field dewpoint pooling events. ASOS ends up 25-27C and then AWOS is in that 31-32C area. It’s funny seeing 92/89 obs in the afternoon. 

I remember that JFK day and that it was a high dew day overall. Lots of 77-79 readings and spotty 80+ in the late afternoon down the coast of NJ/DE. JFK was in line with 77-78 most of the day and then had a couple of hours get into the low 80s…82 and 84 on the hourlies IIRC. The temp went down briefly before a slight rebound before evening. There were some TCu around too with the breezy S flow off the water. Maybe a little evap cooling putting a little extra moisture in the air? Not sure. But I’ve seen spikes like that from manned stations pre-ASOS days too with temp recovery after showers/storms. 

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Modfan2

Modfan2

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

HRRR suggests it could be more than just those regions.  I'm just talking decent tstms, not svr.

NWS was showing (whether or not it gets expanded) most of New England not even in a level 1 for severe; most was confined to SW CT. 

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