Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro going wild with that Typhoon

Not sure if it will intensify much after passing the Marianas.  It already had its first absolute peak on Fri, and now has leveled off at 140 kt.  The eye is currently 30 nm in diameter which is quite large for such a low latitude and so early that far E in this tropical basin.  Just saying that if you want a weenie super-duper intense TC, you want to see a pinhole eye, and Bavi never had that, and once the eye gets large, it does not go back the other way.

Since the Bavi will slowly gain latitude and undergo ERCs, the eye should only increase in size.  Might become an annular TC in fact (the "truck tire" look!).  Annular TCs can still be intense (Isabel in Sep 2003 was 140 kt and a classic annular TC), but they tend to stay steady-sate for a long period of time once getting that structure.

Ineedsnow will have live Guam radar up 100% of the time for the next several days? 

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, tamarack said:

Didn't take long to increase from 65 mph to 145.

If we only have recon in these monsters.  I will tell you given what recons measured from the 1940s to 1987 in the WPAC, if it was done today w/ the much more advanced tech such as GPS dropsondes and the SFMR, you want to talk records and extreme that would put all to shame what we have seen in recons in the ATLC?  The few research mission recons we have had over the years in the WPAC have shown incredible stuff.

Satellite estimates can only do so much.  Dvorak estimates work best for TCs between 60 and 105 kt.  This means two things - 1) many TDs are actually weak TSs, and 2) most very intense TCs are underestimated.  The inner core of these things are strange beasts, acting more mesoscale than anything when you get to Cat 5 levels.  EPAC Patricia in 2015 would have been capped at 160 kt from satellite estimate only, but recon actually found 185 kt winds.

As a result of the above, TC intensities and annual ACE globally are underestimated, and the further you go back, esp. prior to the satellite era, the more off it is.  And really w/ recon, we only started to see things in proper detail w/ the advent of the GPS dropsonde in the late 1990s and the SFMR in 2004.  So you can't really use the database we have over the long-term for true TC trends.

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah, I'm saying even in general, it's a shame that if we ever get a typhoon stronger than Tip we will never know because we don't have recon. I'm sure that Tip has already been surpassed but we can't prove it. 

Take a look at this short paper from 2004.  Odds are it has been exceeded, and since 2004?  Several candidates (Haiyan in Nov 2013 almost certainly).
 

strongerTC.pdf

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Could hit a island or Taiwan.. it would be nice to get a peak then..  btw for being a cat 5 right now satellite looks meh compared to what we usually see

Only Ineedsnow would say MEH to a 140 kt STY!   It's the CoastalWx equivalent of saying MEH to 6/1/11.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Only Ineedsnow would say MEH to a 140 kt STY!   It's the CoastalWx equivalent of saying MEH to 6/1/11.

looks much much better now

[ineedsnow]

CMC GFS and Euro flood early this coming week

[vortex95]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC GFS and Euro flood early this coming week

Scott rain PT.

 

[ineedsnow]

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Scott rain PT.

 

Pretty high amounts on the EPS.. good sign someone is going to get crushed