NJwx85 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Just now, winterwx21 said: You have to wonder if this early convection is messing up our chances for later, but I don't care -- that was a very nice storm. I got a quick 0.46" from it. Glad the vegetable garden got a good watering. This is the warm front which sets the stage for later. Without it there wouldn’t be much of a severe threat later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18 Author Share Posted July 18 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: You have to wonder if this early convection is messing up our chances for later, but I don't care -- that was a very nice storm. I got a quick 0.46" from it. Glad the vegetable garden got a good watering. Hrrr doesn't even have this round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 76 and thunderstorms here. Getting very dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Hrrr doesn't even have this round And the funny thing is, remember how I mentioned that yesterday's 12z HRRR nailed our area today around 10 in the morning. That HRRR run yesterday ended up being correct, but future runs lost it. It's such an inconsistent model, but it's certainly useful at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18 Author Share Posted July 18 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: You have to wonder if this early convection is messing up our chances for later, but I don't care -- that was a very nice storm. I got a quick 0.46" from it. Glad the vegetable garden got a good watering. I'm wondering about that batch of rain moving in from PA as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Hrrr doesn't even have this round models are unreliable in these setups = now casting time using radars and this smoke is still hanging in there making the sky look strange 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1645.html Mesoscale Discussion 1645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181501Z - 181630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible with strong to marginally severe storms late this morning. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A small linear cluster of storms has recently organized in northern New Jersey and adjacent northeast Pennsylvania. Storm cores have shown modest deepening on 7 km MRMS CAPPI over the last 30 minutes. The observed OKX sounding had poor mid-level lapse rates (5.3 C/km) but 45 kt of effective shear. Downstream of this current activity, cloud cover and smoke have hindered surface heating. Low-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep. While isolated wind damage is possible late this morning, the severe threat should remain marginal on account of very limited buoyancy. A watch is not expected. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Torrential downpours here with loud thunder and frequent lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112wxgrl Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Just lost power in Wantage. We didn’t even get a storm yet. We didn’t even lose power on July 3rd. We’re throwing a grad today. We already have it set up to be inside. But, no power already? Getting windy, though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Looks like things are dying as they march east, which comes as no surprise for most of LI. Especially, along the south shore in western Suffolk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Had a heavy downpour with thunder in Carteret. In a lull now, just dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1645.html Mesoscale Discussion 1645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181501Z - 181630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible with strong to marginally severe storms late this morning. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A small linear cluster of storms has recently organized in northern New Jersey and adjacent northeast Pennsylvania. Storm cores have shown modest deepening on 7 km MRMS CAPPI over the last 30 minutes. The observed OKX sounding had poor mid-level lapse rates (5.3 C/km) but 45 kt of effective shear. Downstream of this current activity, cloud cover and smoke have hindered surface heating. Low-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep. While isolated wind damage is possible late this morning, the severe threat should remain marginal on account of very limited buoyancy. A watch is not expected. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 This is only regarding the morning threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: This is only regarding the morning threat. You don’t say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 The steady rain in NE PA is drying up. All these things are great signs. Full steam ahead for mid to late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Just now, IrishRob17 said: You don’t say Just wanted to clarify since some would assume it covered the entire days activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is only regarding the morning threat. But why no watch for later yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Just now, NJwx85 said: Just wanted to clarify since some would assume it covered the entire days activities. That’s fair, I like to think most of us here understand how these discussions work but weenies may not. The clouds and smoke as mentioned will obviously help tell the story of what may or may not happen later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 If this is the appetizer, can't wait for the entree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Flash flood threat NYC metro with this warm frontal training first round of convection. Some hail also beginning to show up. Tropical PWATS with this. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0766 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1128 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 181528Z - 182128Z Summary...A couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected into late this afternoon. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. Discussion...A thermal boundary extends through portions of the Mid-Atlantic States. Near the boundary, showers and thunderstorms are showing some slight backbuilding character while moving northeast into New York City. Precipitable water values are 1.4-2". MU CAPE is 500-5000 J/kg across the region, with the maximum on the Eastern Shore. Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts. One bout of heavy rainfall in the very near term is expected across southeast NY and portions of CT, while later development is expected to the southwest which should ride up the boundary back into the Tri-State area. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible either from backbuilding, cell training, or mesocyclone formation. This would be most problematic in urban areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 the wild card throughout the day is how the smoke will affect the daytime heating and instability - this is an odd setup 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Picked up a little over an inch already and looks like another batch of moderate rain should be moving in from PA over the next couple of hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Light rain but crazy amounts of thunder and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 now we are having fast developing pop up storms one right over 287 and 78 junction in nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18 Author Share Posted July 18 Another storm coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redsox91 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 23 minutes ago, 2112wxgrl said: Just lost power in Wantage. We didn’t even get a storm yet. We didn’t even lose power on July 3rd. We’re throwing a grad today. We already have it set up to be inside. But, no power already? Getting windy, though. Lost power in Sparta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 I see the flood threat but I don't see a severe threat. Think we get downgraded to slight. It's already almost noon with zero clearing to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evie3 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Just got an emergency message (nixle) from my local municipal PD here in northern Somerset County about a tornado watch through tomorrow morning. Nothing from the NWS...I see the flash flood watch but I don't know where the reference to the tornado watch comes from... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Another storm coming thats the fast developing pop up storm i just mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 The way this thing is setting up it's gonna drop a lot of rain on the city to kick us off. Window-rattling thunder already on the UWS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18 Author Share Posted July 18 Just now, Evie3 said: Just got an emergency message (nixle) from my local municipal PD here in northern Somerset County about a tornado watch through tomorrow morning. Nothing from the NWS...I see the flash flood watch but I don't know where the reference to the tornado watch comes from... Yeah no tornado watch yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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