Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[yoda]

Just now, GaWx said:

New JMA H5 winter maps from NE forum post: this is what I see

DJF strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO

 

Dec slight +PNA, ~neutral EPO, slight -AO to neutral AO, slight +NAO

 

Jan strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO

 

Does anyone disagree with my calls on what these maps are showing for these indices?

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The JMA last had a good Winter forecast in 2013. 

[mitchnick]

52 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The JMA last had a good Winter forecast in 2013. 

So that is code for you predicting another 2013/14 winter? 

On an even less serious note, tons of acorns up here, the most in many, many years according to a neighbor who's a life-long Hanover resident in his 70's.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So that is code for you predicting another 2013/14 winter? 

On an even less serious note, tons of acorns up here, the most in many, many years according to a neighbor who's a life-long Hanover resident in his 70's.

I thought temps in the 60s along the Gulf Coast while the hurricane is making landfall is a pretty good affirmation for cooler conditions in the wintertime. 

[WEATHER53]

On 10/7/2026 at 10:40 AM, WEATHER53 said:

We are going to be very good this winter. 2002-03 keeps showing up.  That means the general pattern more than one huge storm but such storm is not discounted 

I also look at first half of October  as to how far off NWS and others are in predicting below average temps in the 5+ day prior to.  This cool shot prediction  had DC in upper 50’s for highs initially which verified more like 63-64 so about 5/6 degrees off .  

Ok so the last 5 day away cool shit prediction was 5-7F  too cool.  This Saturday has been ranging 53-55 for Saturday high predictions so let’s see how this cool shot prediction goes

[WxUSAF]

Didn’t @Jisay we want a warm October? Good news!

https://x.com/ryankanerwx/status/2111092128407277828?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

[CAPE]

11 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Didn’t @Jisay we want a warm October? Good news!

https://x.com/ryankanerwx/status/2111092128407277828?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

Looks below avg to avg for the next 10 days though, using more than a single model. Easy to cherry pick when one has an agenda. Now the very end of Oct into Nov may be another story.

[Terpeast]

If I do a winter outlook this year, I don’t think you guys will like it. Still want me to do one? 

[yoda]

30 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If I do a winter outlook this year, I don’t think you guys will like it. Still want me to do one? 

Just say there will be one big storm in it lol

But yes

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

If I do a winter outlook this year, I don’t think you guys will like it. Still want me to do one? 

I mean we oughta know what the deal is. But I don't get why some here just can't accept somebody saying it won't snow or will be very difficult to. Soon as you say it probably won't snow *WEENIE* It feels like the same psychology as those sports fans who don't wanna hear/can't handle criticism of their team even when it is 100% true. I guess it's a "positive thoughts only!!!" kind of thing.

But anyway...we all know what the deal is. Strongest niño on record, most east-based on record. I mean those are facts. A futility winter of less than 5" is very possible...but it's not like we haven't been through it twice this decade so l mean, lol Also a small possibility maybe a big storm pops but absolutely nothing to put your hat on in that regard but pure luck/timing. I mean again, these are facts, no?

[Terpeast]

41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean we oughta know what the deal is. But I don't get why some here just can't accept somebody saying it won't snow or will be very difficult to. Soon as you say it probably won't snow *WEENIE* It feels like the same psychology as those sports fans who don't wanna hear/can't handle criticism of their team even when it is 100% true. I guess it's a "positive thoughts only!!!" kind of thing.

But anyway...we all know what the deal is. Strongest niño on record, most east-based on record. I mean those are facts. A futility winter of less than 5" is very possible...but it's not like we haven't been through it twice this decade so l mean, lol Also a small possibility maybe a big storm pops but absolutely nothing to put your hat on in that regard but pure luck/timing. I mean again, these are facts, no?

I think you’ve just about summed it up right there… saving me half of the effort.

All the super nino analogs are only partial matches, and we’ve never had it this east based.

If I had to guess what would happen in the atmosphere this winter, the N Pac low would be right up against the western canada coast, and the southern trough would be pulled west, making it one longwave trough rather than two separate troughs. Not saying we’ll get a SE ridge, we’ll still have a screaming STJ but embedded within a zonal flow east of the rockies, which would also bring us milder temps on the mean.

Still an elevated chance for a big one compared to all winters, but not compared to other favorable ninos. If I were a betting man, I’d pass on the big one this year.

As far as temps go, thinking 4-6 AN DJF, and BN snow. Way above AN precip though mostly rain. Maybe a surprise march snow.

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think you’ve just about summed it up right there… saving me half of the effort.

All the super nino analogs are only partial matches, and we’ve never had it this east based.

If I had to guess what would happen in the atmosphere this winter, the N Pac low would be right up against the western canada coast, and the southern trough would be pulled west, making it one longwave trough rather than two separate troughs. Not saying we’ll get a SE ridge, we’ll still have a screaming STJ but embedded within a zonal flow east of the rockies, which would also bring us milder temps on the mean.

Still an elevated chance for a big one compared to all winters, but not compared to other favorable ninos. If I were a betting man, I’d pass on the big one this year.

As far as temps go, thinking 4-6 AN DJF, and BN snow. Way above AN precip though mostly rain. Maybe a surprise march snow.

 

 

Don't have your same skillset but that sounds reasonable. Would need NAO help to get a favorable storm track and to trap in cold air to have a shot. Otherwise I agree that it'll be hard forcing storms to either not cut or to have any cold air in place. Will probably get a lot of warm versions of last January's big sleet storm but with a further west track. Hopefully we get things to line up enough for the mountains to get some major storms with all the precip - but that's a question I don't know the answer to. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

N. Pacific low is not necessarily bad. Our biggest snowstorms come from that composite. Give me +PDO/Super east-based Nino 50 times and I bet it will be good 30 times vs recent averages. The problem is -PDO is completely overwhelming the N. Pacific pattern right now. You see this on models for the next 15 days. 

[Eskimo Joe]

32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

N. Pacific low is not necessarily bad. Our biggest snowstorms come from that composite. Give me +PDO/Super east-based Nino 50 times and I bet it will be good 30 times vs recent averages. The problem is -PDO is completely overwhelming the N. Pacific pattern right now. You see this on models for the next 15 days. 

What do you think will be necessary for the PDO to switch back to a positive phase?

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What do you think will be necessary for the PDO to switch back to a positive phase?

I know you asked Chuck, but my answer would be that the marine heat wave off Japan either has to dissipate or migrate east to just off the western North America coast. Problem is, the marine heat wave runs deep about 100-200m not just at the surface, so its harder to mix that out.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What do you think will be necessary for the PDO to switch back to a positive phase?

Need to stop focusing on it. It isnt the end all. What we need to overcome it is a -EPO, and an AO that isnt absurdly positive. We have had multiple snowstorms since 2015 with a less than favorable PDO, and in most of those cases there was an EPO ridge and a non hostile AO state.

[CAPE]

Latest Euro extended fwiw. Could look a lot worse than this heading into Met winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

55 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What do you think will be necessary for the PDO to switch back to a positive phase?

It's a really strong decadal pattern. NOAA has run subsurface analysis of the N. Pacific and show very warm anomalies making it to -400m. That has never happened before. It will take a lot of time to get that out, at least a few years. History does show it's strongly cyclical over the course decades though so maybe in time it will be favorable again. I do think the next positive phase will be dominated by warm water in the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast North America, but it may take a few decades to get there, because it's a completely different pattern. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Need to stop focusing on it. It isnt the end all. What we need to overcome it is a -EPO, and an AO that isnt absurdly positive. We have had multiple snowstorms since 2015 with a less than favorable PDO, and in most of those cases there was an EPO ridge and a non hostile AO state.

Why would we need to stop focusing on it when it's one of the strongest correlated variables there is?  It's completely dominating the Strongest El Nino on record in the N. Pacific so far. 

Philly, Balt and DC are near record lows for snowfall since 2016 when the core -PDO set in. Near the coast a few events really skews your total. It's like saying Pensacola Fl had a 10" snow event so therefore everything about a 10 year pattern is not relevant 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest Euro extended fwiw. Could look a lot worse than this heading into Met winter.

23-24 did the same thing basically every week Nov-Mar. Let's see if that Aleutian low actualizes. 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

23-24 did the same thing basically every week Nov-Mar. Let's see if that Aleutian low actualizes. 

Why the F do people keep focusing one 1 year as the reason why every Niño  since can't snow? The models screwed up that year...period! 

P.s. There has been an Aleutian low multiple times within the last few weeks. Obviously, you're not going to establish a mean low there yet this early in any winter season.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Why the F do people keep focusing one 1 year as the reason why every Niño  since can't snow? The models screwed up that year...period! 

P.s. there has been an Aleutian low multiple times within the last few weeks. Obviously, you're not going to establish a mean low there yet this early in any winter season.

It's the best ENSO/PDO analog since the 1800s, and the global pattern has taken on its own momentum recently, so recent analogs have much greater weight than older ones. 

Long term models have shown major ENSO-default bias, in the last few years. 

Aleutian low typically becomes an established ENSO pattern in October. This is not it at all. 

ENSEMBLE LOOP

You are referring to a 3-day period of weakly established N. pacific low. I think that's the 5th time I've heard you refer to that happening. 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's the best ENSO/PDO analog since the 1800s, and the global pattern has taken on its own momentum recently, so recent analogs have much greater weight than older ones. 

Long term models have shown major ENSO-default bias, in the last few years. 

Aleutian low typically becomes an established ENSO pattern in October. This is not it at all. 

ENSEMBLE LOOP

You are referring to a 3-day period of weakly established N. pacific low. I think that's the 5th time I've heard you refer to that happening. 

BS Chuck. Sorry but neither you nor any other person is better than the model consensus . Do you think they're not using analogs too? The models will have their errors, but the consensus is overwhelming. 

And don't be narrow-minded . The mean Aleutian Low has not been proged to get started until next month. But before the mean trough is established, you're going to get transient lows in the area, which is what has been happening.  

And that loop is for 1 run. Go back to older runs of the ensembles and you will see multiple lows showing up.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

BS Chuck. Sorry but neither you nor any other person is better than the model consensus . Do you think they're not using analogs too? The models will have their errors, but the consensus is overwhelming. 

And don't be narrow-minded . The mean Aleutian Low has not been proged to get started until next month. But before the mean trough is established, you're going to get transient lows in the area, which is what has been happening.  

 

I disagree. Seasonal models and several weeks out models have show major error in the last few years. You can mark my words- the seasonal model mean is showing a -120dm N Pacific trough for DJFM. I think it will be significantly higher than that. Odds of them being too low is probably 95%. In 23-24 they were showing -90 to -120dm Winter mean and it ended up being +45dm. 

It's not narrow minded at all. Narrow minded is thinking it's going to be the same as all past El Nino's. History says Aleutian Low is an established El Nino pattern starting in October. That is not happening this year at all. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I disagree. Seasonal models and several weeks out models have show major error in the last few years. You can mark my words- the seasonal model mean is showing a -120dm N Pacific trough for DJFM. I think it will be significantly higher than that. Odds of them being too low is probably 95%. In 23-24 they were showing -90 to -120dm Winter mean and it ended up being +45dm. 

It's not narrow minded at all. Narrow minded is thinking it's going to be the same as all past El Nino's. History says Aleutian Low is an establishes El Nino pattern starting in October. That is not happening this year at all. 

I said my piece. We disagree. Only time will tell.

So do you choose pistols or knives? Lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I said my piece. We disagree. Only time will tell.

So do you choose pistols or knives? Lol

I'm not saying it can't snow, if the Pacific neutralizes we can do it with -AO, which I think we will have some -AO this Winter. But I'm pointing out a very likely flaw: long term modeling in the N. Pacific. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm not saying it can't snow, if the Pacific neutralizes we can do it with -AO, which I think we will have some -AO this Winter. But I'm pointing out a very likely flaw: long term modeling in the N. Pacific. 

I know. I get what you're saying. I just don't think this winter will act as hostile to cold/snow as worst case, at least not imby. And I  also think the atmosphere is moving slower getting pieces in position thanks to the years of MC forcing and -PDO. That's why I'm more convinced with the formation of the Aleutian low than you.

But as I said, time will tell and December will be here before you know it. Once Halloween hits, the holidays just fly by.

[Benjamn3]

9 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest Euro extended fwiw. Could look a lot worse than this heading into Met winter.

Sign me up. Any cool days or flakes we can get for this December I’m going to consider bonus points. I’ll consider it a win if Xmas isn’t 65. lol 

[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I know. I get what you're saying. I just don't think this winter will act as hostile to cold/snow as worst case, at least not imby. And I  also think the atmosphere is moving slower getting pieces in position thanks to the years of MC forcing and -PDO. That's why I'm more convinced with the formation of the Aleutian low than you.

But as I said, time will tell and December will be here before you know it. Once Halloween hits, the holidays just fly by.

Past does not necessarily correlate to future outcomes.  But Chuck is 100% right about his observed flaw in the long range guidance.  It wasn't just 2024, they did the same thing in 2019 also, continuously advertising a canonical nino look in the pacific that never actually materialized.  That doesn't mean the same thing happens again, but it would be foolish to stick our heads in the sand bout that fact.  Until we actually see a nino north pac pattern set in I would be skeptical also!  

I disagree with Chuck about the position of the N Pac low being fine if it's east based.  But most won't want to hear this.  He is right that if you run a mean of our biggest snowstorms there is a low just off the Pac NW coast.  The issue is how we get there.  That low isn't typically as strong as a super nino one will be.  Additionally it's usually part of a retrograding pattern and it wasn't there the whole time, the cold for the snowstorm was set up then as the pattern retrogrades a transient low there sets in motion the snowstorm.  That is also why we usually warm up soon after our biggest snowstorms...because a low there floods CONUS with pac puke.  

A permanent low all winter there would NOT be the same as a transient low there following a favorable pattern for cold.  A permanent strong low just off the Pac NW would flood the CONUS with mild pac puke airmass.  

This doesn't mean we can't get a big snowstorm.  There might we windows.  The pac pattern will fluctuate some.  We probably need a favorable AO/NAO and who knows.  But we're going to be fighting some very uphill battles, some of which we have been fighting for the last 10 years.

 

@CAPE you're right it can snow during these hostile underlying issues, but the fact is it has snowed less in the last 10 years than any 10 year period in history!  No one is saying we know how the winter will play out for sure...but when making these seasonal predictions it's about probabilities, and the results under this pacific pdo regime have shown the math favors less snow.  So yes we're rooting for a fluke, but you don't base a seasonal forecast one "maybe we get lucky".  

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

A permanent low all winter there would NOT be the same as a transient low there following a favorable pattern for cold.  A permanent strong low just off the Pac NW would flood the CONUS with mild pac puke airmass.  

This is most likely an ignorant question but do we know if the seasonal models are advertising a permanent low or transient lows in that area?