Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[SnowenOutThere]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

11.8" in Hanover and 11.4" in Harrisburg. Those locations lacked sufficient elevation to do well, though still muuuuch better than IAD, DCA and BWI.

Made a PDF report of winter storms from WV during that winter. Looks like some moisture bomb gulf lows translated to major winter storms for the ridges. Should bring some solace to know that even if we completely torch this winter snow, and maybe a blizzard, will only be a drive away. 

SED_events.pdf

Charleston WV even has a map for a January event and notes the cutoff due to temperatures. Not sure I've ever seen a map like this! Look at the VA side, you have the blue ridge in Nelson county picking up over a foot of snow while the valleys had cold rain. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Made a PDF report of winter storms from WV during that winter. Looks like some moisture bomb gulf lows translated to major winter storms for the ridges. Should bring some solace to know that even if we completely torch this winter snow, and maybe a blizzard, will only be a drive away. 

SED_events.pdf 266 kB · 12 downloads

Charleston WV even has a map for a January event and notes the cutoff due to temperatures. Not sure I've ever seen a map like this! Look at the VA side, you have the blue ridge in Nelson county picking up over a foot of snow while the valleys had cold rain. 

I was camping at Big Meadows on Skyline Drive in October, 1979 when we woke up to thunder, lightning and rain that quickly turned to sleet then snow. We literally barely made it out in time before they closed Skyline Drive (we were in Sperryville when we heard it was just closed.) The ridge tops quickly accumulated 3"+ with heavy snow still falling making driving an absolute nightmare. Still wonder to this day how my friend's 1970 Ford Torino, an absolute boat with rear wheel drive, made it up and down the hills. By the time we made it to Rt. 211 (I  think that's 211 that takes you to Sperryville), it was rain with still some thunder. 

Long story to simply confirm that I believe your map! Lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, frd said:

Wonder if the PDO in November or December gets to slightly positive. 

 

August 2026	-1.11
July 2026	-1.35
June 2026	-1.32
May 2026	-1.64
April 2026	-1.28
March 2026	-1.18
February 2026	-0.79
January 2026	-0.87
December 2025	-0.39
November 2025	-1.02
October 2025	-1.82
September 2025	-1.71
August 2025	-2.54
July 2025	-3.83
June 2025	-2.62

Daily PDO has been tanking.. it's near -2 right now

[aldie 22]

Far NW winter coming 

[ensonerd1233e343]

On 9/28/2026 at 7:15 PM, WxUSAF said:

I think the PDO will move toward neutral as the fall and early winter progress. An active NPac storm track should foster some cooler water at the surface.

Yes models have strong westerlies in the npac would encourge evap cooling of the npac

[Huffwx]

On 9/28/2026 at 7:26 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

Made a PDF report of winter storms from WV during that winter. Looks like some moisture bomb gulf lows translated to major winter storms for the ridges. Should bring some solace to know that even if we completely torch this winter snow, and maybe a blizzard, will only be a drive away. 

SED_events.pdf 266 kB · 22 downloads

Charleston WV even has a map for a January event and notes the cutoff due to temperatures. Not sure I've ever seen a map like this! Look at the VA side, you have the blue ridge in Nelson county picking up over a foot of snow while the valleys had cold rain. 

I chased that storm.. may have been my first ever. In the Mts just outside of Roanoke. Had 6+. then a burst of rain, another 4+, back to rain then another few inches. Top depth in the morning was 8 inches. 

[WEATHER53]

5 hours ago, Huffwx said:

I chased that storm.. may have been my first ever. In the Mts just outside of Roanoke. Had 6+. then a burst of rain, another 4+, back to rain then another few inches. Top depth in the morning was 8 inches. 

Hey there 

[ensonerd1233e343]

Anyone got cansips?

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

Anyone got cansips?

This is a probalistic forecast for Canada that you may be able to extrapolate for northern US. 4-6 months covers JFM. It is dated 9/30

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html

[mitchnick]

October Cansip update 

 

[Huffwx]

17 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Hey there 

Hey now! You still have the best park job ever at G&M's pulling that car into a tiny spot! Hoping for a better than average winter with this super Nino. If it resemembles 82-83, with a December event, the smaller event before the Feb 11-12 event and then a big one, I'd be thrilled. I was Nothern Delaware for the 83 event but LYH had 14-18 region wide in 83. 

[WxUSAF]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

October Cansip update 

 

I’d take that in a hot minute if I knew it was right 

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d take that in a hot minute if I knew it was right 

It's fairly close in all respects to what the Cfs2 has been showing, just around .5C cooler. Unfortunately, that probably won't happen with the Niño level.

[psuhoffman]

On 9/28/2026 at 6:05 PM, mitchnick said:

I figured the mts must have done better, but not living here then I didn't know for certain.

I'm not worried about the warming planet if we have the right pattern/track. 50+ years ago (as in the early and mid 70's) were horrendous with many snow to ip or mainly zr/ip storms. The only 6"+ storm I recall during that period was in 12/73, and that switched over to ip/zr before ending south of BWI. It wasn't until the NE blizzard in early 2/78 that BWI got close to a 10" snowfall. Of all things, it was the mother of all Miller B's too. 

But I  agree 100% with your earlier post that it's the -PDO state that's killing us. I do think, however, this Niño is going to shake things up in the Pacific and would expect a shift away from a -PDO in the means very soon, as in next year or the year after.

I generally agree but you are mentioning one of the closest analog periods to the last 10 years in terms of the longwave pacific and atlantic patterns.  Actually the pattern if you just look at the h5 means for the early to mid 1970s was even worse!  And if you look at the numbers you'll see we have done about 15% WORSE now wrt snowfall.  This trend is evident in high snowfall periods also, the last favorable period was slightly less favorable then previous ones.  So our current crappy pattern cycle is the bigger issue...but mixed within that is the fact that the background state for snow is degrading also.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Thankfully you can drive 9 hours to 300" of snowfall a Winter, or a few hours to the mountains. 

[IronTy]

Cansips is looking diesel.  Does anybody know why it has that stubborn small blob of AN temps right over the Chesapeake for the winter?  It's been there for a number of runs now.  Is it something to do with bay water temps that it's picking up on?

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, IronTy said:

Cansips is looking diesel.  Does anybody know why it has that stubborn small blob of AN temps right over the Chesapeake for the winter?  It's been there for a number of runs now.  Is it something to do with bay water temps that it's picking up on?

I never pay attention to surface temp anomalies on a smoothed seasonal model. Just not realistic that a low res/LR tool can resolve something that localized. I only look at h5 to get a general idea of the big picture advertised pattern. Latter half of winter looks potentially decent as modeled. KU coming. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

One question I have about this winter is how will the strong sunspots cycle impact a strong el nino?

[Jebman]

46 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

One question I have about this winter is how will the strong sunspots cycle impact a strong el nino?

The strong sunspots cycle will make the Strong Nino even more epic! In DC's case maybe a lot of moisture combining with an Arctic surge.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I never pay attention to surface temp anomalies on a smoothed seasonal model. Just not realistic that a low res/LR tool can resolve something that localized. I only look at h5 to get a general idea of the big picture advertised pattern. Latter half of winter looks potentially decent as modeled. KU coming. 

Yeah I'm not too worried about it but it's been persistent and I keep wondering what's with the model that it keeps putting a blob of AN right over the DMV.  It's gotta be doing that for some persistent reason.   All I could come up with was water temps or hot air bellowing out of DC.  In any case I'm getting a good feeling for this winter.  

[WEATHER53]

Many of the  indexes that were  so reliable , like Enso, just don’t  function the same over last 25 years.  AO and NAO are still very viable and important . In my 62-63 analog I think Feb was like -9.  Things from that time I add +3 to +4 to .  If it’s 82-83 then I add+2 or +3.  2002-03 then +1 and maybe +2

 

 

[Ji]

Yeah I'm not too worried about it but it's been persistent and I keep wondering what's with the model that it keeps putting a blob of AN right over the DMV.  It's gotta be doing that for some persistent reason.   All I could come up with was water temps or hot air bellowing out of DC.  In any case I'm getting a good feeling for this winter.  

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