winter_warlock Posted Tuesday at 09:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:23 PM 12 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: perfect winter imo I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Tuesday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:24 PM We all need a storm that gives us our whole seasonal snow fall in 1 storm. I think if we got that we might be able to cope with a warmer winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Tuesday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:32 PM 9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Always a great time when the ultimate snow weenie has thrown in the towel in September Throwing in the winter towel in September makes as much sense as the Cleveland browns deciding to start selling playoff tickets in September ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Tuesday at 10:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:36 PM 18 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: "All it takes is one storm" So you are stalking out Winter for 6 months for 18 hours of snowfall? No thanks, give me 20 light snow events, "snowfall days". My trees are already losing leaves - the most depressing 6 months of the year for 1 storm, no lol. nah, i’m stalking out winter for 24 hours of snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Tuesday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:39 PM 1 hour ago, winter_warlock said: Throwing in the winter towel in September makes as much sense as the Cleveland browns deciding to start selling playoff tickets in September ! all it takes is one well timed cold air mass. I would never throw in the towel if we have the precip side of the equation in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Wednesday at 02:20 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:20 AM 22 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: "All it takes is one storm" So you are stalking out Winter for 6 months for 18 hours of snowfall? No thanks, give me 20 light snow events, "snowfall days". My trees are already losing leaves - the most depressing 6 months of the year for 1 storm, no lol. Yeah but think about it: If that happens we will have what we haven't had in 11 years: 1-2 feet of snow! You realize that, given the two ninas forthcoming after this winter, we have zero chance of seeing that until 2029-30 at the earliest, right? Yeah I would take one big snow in a millisecond! 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Wednesday at 06:40 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:40 AM 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah but think about it: If that happens we will have what we haven't had in 11 years: 1-2 feet of snow! You realize that, given the two ninas forthcoming after this winter, we have zero chance of seeing that until 2029-30 at the earliest, right? Yeah I would take one big snow in a millisecond! If we go neutral next year then it’ll be off the table until 30-31. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Wednesday at 09:53 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:53 AM 3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: If we go neutral next year then it’ll be off the table until 30-31. Not necessarily...we had neutral after 2016 were neutralish in 16-17, nina 17-18, but then niño (albeit very weak) in 18-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Wednesday at 10:46 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:46 AM From one of the earliest, strongest PV formations to now currently forecasted to weaken, as the AO goes from positive to negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 11:25 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:25 AM 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not necessarily...we had neutral after 2016 were neutralish in 16-17, nina 17-18, but then niño (albeit very weak) in 18-19 2016-17 was a weak Nina and short lived. ENSO was neutral by the beginning of Feb. My first Rehoboth beach blizzard chase was early Jan that winter, then the next one was early Jan 2018- the 'bomb cyclone'. Been 4 blizzards there in the last 10 years. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 11:32 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:32 AM 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: 2016-17 was a weak Nina and short lived. ENSO was neutral by the beginning of Feb. My first Rehoboth beach blizzard chase was early Jan that winter, then the next one was early Jan 2018- the 'bomb cyclone'. Been 4 blizzards there in the last 10 years. Crazy. Just one more reason to hate Ocean City! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 11:36 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:36 AM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Just one more reason to hate Ocean City! Yeah not a fan. Love the Lewes/Rehoboth area though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnEndlessMaze Posted Wednesday at 11:53 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:53 AM 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Just one more reason to hate Ocean City! 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah not a fan. Love the Lewes/Rehoboth area though. Ocean City was nice... in the 90's. Lots of good childhood memories there. Last time we were in OC was 2013 and we decided never to go back, it had really gone downhill even then. Rehoboth is still great though! I haven't been to Virginia Beach since I was a little kid, and am wondering what it's like now. We were thinking of going there next year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Wednesday at 12:00 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:00 PM 6 minutes ago, AnEndlessMaze said: Ocean City was nice... in the 90's. Lots of good childhood memories there. Last time we were in OC was 2013 and we decided never to go back, it had really gone downhill even then. Rehoboth is still great though! I haven't been to Virginia Beach since I was a little kid, and am wondering what it's like now. We were thinking of going there next year. Not trying to hijack the thread, but if you’re willing to make the drive to VA beach, put in the extra hour and go to the outer banks. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnEndlessMaze Posted Wednesday at 12:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:03 PM 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Not trying to hijack the thread, but if you’re willing to make the drive to VA beach, put in the extra hour and go to the outer banks. Duly noted. You're not the first person who's told me this either LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 12:05 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:05 PM 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: Not trying to hijack the thread, but if you’re willing to make the drive to VA beach, put in the extra hour and go to the outer banks. Not much going on in here probably until WW dumps the WB maps for the next CFS Control run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Wednesday at 12:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:37 PM 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not much going on in here probably until WW dumps the WB maps for the next CFS Control run. I think everyone knows where this winter stands. It'll be above average temperatures, especially in December and it is unlikely we get any real sustained periods of frigid temps, save our conception of how the atmosphere behaves in a strong el nino being wrong. It's also a good bet we will have favorable storm tracks and a very active subtropical jet stream to bring in above average precip. That is all we can really say. We can then formulate that this season will be a boom or bust depending on if we get lucky with a shot of cold air at the right time, but we can't speculate on any details of that responsibly. Anything else is extrapolating or doesn't have much climatological backing. That's it. We now just have to wait through at least October, if not November/December, to watch how the atmosphere couples with the oceans. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Wednesday at 03:38 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:38 PM How much for short pump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 09:55 AM Share Posted Thursday at 09:55 AM BAM Wx winter forecast. Mainly average snowfall to slightly below in northern areas and slightly above in southern areas. But they put all of the forum in the highest chance to bust high for snowfall due to risk of a big 1 or 2 storms. (See starting 17:35 on video.) A little AN on temps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 01:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:53 PM While a strong, east-based El Nino is probably hostile for snow chances I wonder what, if any role the Atlantic may play since it's not been turned over with any meaningful tropical cyclone activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:21 PM Give me this 500mb evolution all winter. West coast ridge, blocking in Greenland, trough over us...yea buddy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Thursday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:31 PM On 9/23/2026 at 12:37 PM, SnowenOutThere said: I think everyone knows where this winter stands. It'll be above average temperatures, especially in December and it is unlikely we get any real sustained periods of frigid temps, save our conception of how the atmosphere behaves in a strong el nino being wrong. It's also a good bet we will have favorable storm tracks and a very active subtropical jet stream to bring in above average precip. That is all we can really say. We can then formulate that this season will be a boom or bust depending on if we get lucky with a shot of cold air at the right time, but we can't speculate on any details of that responsibly. Anything else is extrapolating or doesn't have much climatological backing. That's it. We now just have to wait through at least October, if not November/December, to watch how the atmosphere couples with the oceans. Good post. Not sure why you replied to mine though lol. Should have been a stand alone post. Not really relevant and out of context to what I posted.. I was just making a funny about not much happening in the thread other than Will promising to post every CFS Control run going forward. Yes most of us don't want/need to see that crap. Pretty clear how this winter will play out in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Thursday at 10:03 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:03 PM 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Good post. Not sure why you replied to mine though lol. Should have been a stand alone post. Not really relevant and out of context to what I posted.. I was just making a funny about not much happening in the thread other than Will promising to post every CFS Control run going forward. Yes most of us don't want/need to see that crap. Pretty clear how this winter will play out in general. You (hopefully) know that I respect you as a poster so that post wasn’t targeted at your own meteorological knowledge. You’re the reason, alongside other posters and some professors, I’ve gotten this far. I was responding to the chain of thought of “there’s not much going on” in this thread because, yeah, there really shouldn’t be anything going on! It’s the awkward period of winter forecasting where you can paint big picture but any details won’t be clear. We both know there aren’t great correlations between weather and winter till October at the very soonest, so we really can’t say much till then. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 46 minutes ago Author Share Posted 46 minutes ago WTH is going herehttps://suno.com/s/XkGmMIhcxeWT6Glx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ensonerd1233e343 Posted 9 minutes ago Share Posted 9 minutes ago On 9/14/2026 at 2:23 PM, forkyfork said: this is stronger and further east than 1997. why is anyone remotely hopeful because 1983 had literally the same setup and produced a big mid atlantic snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ensonerd1233e343 Posted 2 minutes ago Share Posted 2 minutes ago On 9/15/2026 at 12:52 PM, forkyfork said: you are all free to tell me why the most historically unfavorable enso state is going to be better this time thats not true this enso state is not "histroically unfavroable" we only have two events like it one torched and had no snow the other had a torch dec then near normal jan feb that had a blizzard in there There are defenitly more unfavorable enso states for mid atl snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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