Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[JenkinsJinkies]

26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a pretty ugly 500mb chart for December. Hello 65 and sunny on Christmas.

We’ve had worse torchmases

[87storms]

Warm/dry, cold/wet?

[yoda]

I'm kind of fine with punting December.  We haven't really had much cold and snow the past few years anyway in that month.  Granted, I don't want 70s... but it seems as many knowledgeable posters have stated across the numerous threads... December is gone 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'm kind of fine with punting December.  We haven't really had much cold and snow the past few years anyway in that month.  Granted, I don't want 70s... but it seems as many knowledgeable posters have stated across the numerous threads... December is gone 

I don't think the super El Nino in-and-of itself is an absolute death knell for December, but it is when combined with descending solar and +QBO.

[Eskimo Joe]

56 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'm kind of fine punting December.  We haven't really had much cold and snow the past few years anyway in that month.  Granted, I don't want 70s... but it seems as many knowledgeable posters have stated across the numerous threads... December is gone 

It's amazing how hostile our winters have become. We just casually punt 30% of winter year after year.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's amazing how hostile our winters have become. We just casually punt 30% of winter year after year.

I mean big December snow is a bit of a tall order but you have a good point.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's amazing how hostile our winters have become. We just casually punt 30% of winter year after year.

Idk man, isnt that the most typical outcome here? 80s and 90s were no different in that department. Plenty of punting in the majority of those winters. If anything, the best 10-15 year stretch in my lifetime was 02-03 thru 2015-16 and there was plenty of stench mixed in between the truly good years. Feast or famine and lots of boring stretches is the MA base state for as long as I've been alive lol. Even the 70s werent mind blowing in the snow dept. Deep cold at times was the big story. Not prolific snowstorms. 2013-2016 was the best 3 year stretch in MA history since the 60s imo. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You also have to consider potential hybrid patterns and what that may look like. I think it's safe to assume that there will be more of a traditional El Nino response than 2023 and even 2015.

I think you are paying too much attention to one part - ENSO. ENSO's propagation to the northern latitudes are 2nd and 3rd effects. Sometimes patterns set up in the mid latitudes. A greater El Nino response than 2015 is crazy imo. DJFM had nearly -120dm in the N. Pacific. We have not seen that like at all in 11 years, this record El Nino summmer included. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A few La Nina/-QBO's had crazy N. Pacific blocks in December.. >+200dm. That would be a wildcard for Dec, a monster N. Pacific low, if the PDO wasn't going against it so hard and recent patterns. 

[Nomz]

4 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

We’ve had worse torchmases

On the first day of torchmas my true love gave to me, a +5 c anomaly

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This October watch to see if US goes colder or not. El Nino's are historically cold in Oct. Pac pattern in Oct is pretty connected to the Winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

On the first day of torchmas my true love gave to me, a +5 c anomaly

I'll take the under on a warm Christmas. There really aren't enough examples to be so confident in it. This is true for Super Nino's general. 

[87storms]

DC might be better at sports than we are at December snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think you are paying too much attention to one part - ENSO. ENSO's propagation to the northern latitudes are 2nd and 3rd effects. Sometimes patterns set up in the mid latitudes. A greater El Nino response than 2015 is crazy imo. DJFM had nearly -120dm in the N. Pacific. We have not seen that like at all in 11 years, this record El Nino summmer included. 

I don't think you are paying enough attention to antecedent conditions...of course the summer of 2015 was more redolent of El Niño....it came off of....an El Niño with a huge +PDO.

You are also misunderstanding what I am saying when I compare to 2015...not just talking about the intensity of the GOA low,  but also the degree of MC influence. There is probably a connection, but it's not 1:1. I doubt we see more MC influence than 2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the warm Xmas puns a play off the warm December that is expected....I don't think anyone it honestly trying to forecast down to the day at 3 months out.