Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Really? Don't believe everything you read over in the main Enso thread. Lol The seasonal models will not nail every location. Here's the 9/25 forecast off the Cansips for 12/25-2/26. It has BWI +.5C, so say +1F. What happened at BWI? Every month was BN with an average for the 3 months of -3.7F. So it was too cold in Colorado, and who cares, and too warm where we live.

 

P.s. I've already said in the other forum this winter will likely be AN. The question is, obviously, by how much.

Ok.. I was under the impression that it was cooler here and cooler in the Rockies. Was just going on memory. 

I've seen it make some pretty bad short term forecasts the last 2 Summers though. And it was about 2,000 miles off on where the El Nino would be centered, based in the last few months. 

[CAPE]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the AO will be negative.....EPO and NAO+ in the seasonal mean.

-AO is key for cold down here(minus a -EPO), but in a Nino the Aleutian/NE Pac trough position/strength can mitigate the tendency to deliver colder air southward if the flow of Pac air into Canada is overwhelming.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

-AO is key for cold down here(minus a -EPO), but in a Nino the Aleutian/NE Pac trough position/strength can mitigate the tendency to deliver colder air southward if the flow of Pac air into Canada is overwhelming.

Yup.

[Eskimo Joe]

So is this an east based, or basinwide El Nino at this point?

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

So is this an east based, or basinwide El Nino at this point?

East. Might back west into central/basin wide before it dissipates

[clskinsfan]

Just give us moisture out here this winter. It has been a decade of watching eastern folks get hit while we get skunked. Wound up coastal plain runners would be fine by me. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 9/1/2026 at 11:13 AM, TSSN+ said:

Yes please 

LOL maybe the worst 0.0 month lead forecasts in the history of seasonal models

Chicago area

Iowa

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

LOL maybe the worst 0.0 month lead forecasts in the history of seasonal models

Chicago area

Iowa

That's only the first 6 days of a 30-day month. It obviously didn't hold on to August's heat long enough.  However, the changes are coming. Here are the 3 ensemble temp anomaly averages for the 5 days ending the 22nd/23rd of September. Needless to say, there's another 7 days in the month beyond this period to go into the mix. That's not to say the forecast will verify, because it may not. But I  don't think using the first 6 days of the month for verification is predictive for a month.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

That's only the first 6 days of a 30-day month. It obviously didn't hold on to August's heat long enough.  However, the changes are coming. Here are the 3 ensemble temp anomaly averages for the 5 days ending the 22nd/23rd of September. Needless to say, there's another 7 days in the month beyond this period to go into the mix. That's not to say the forecast will verify, because it may not. But I  don't think using the first 6 days of the month for verification is predictive for a month.

If Chicago is 0 the rest of the month, they finish +3. And the Euro is showing a big ridge in the medium range. It's not a good forecast, the model can't even factor in the first 6 days right. 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If Chicago is 0 the rest of the month, they finish +3. And the Euro is showing a big ridge in the medium range. It's not a good forecast, the model can't even factor in the first 6 days right. 

No doubt it screwed up the beginning of the month. But there's a long way to go is really my point and all 3 ensembles are pointing to a change in the pattern. Fortunately, it's September and not DJ or F.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

the can'tsips

[Weather Will]

And it begins....WB 0Z EPS snow totals.

[Eskimo Joe]

17 hours ago, Terpeast said:

East. Might back west into central/basin wide before it dissipates

Historically those are not the greatest for snowfall in these parts, correct?

[Terpeast]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Historically those are not the greatest for snowfall in these parts, correct?

Yeah not great, but still a higher than normal chance for the big one 

[CAPE]

Not sure if anyone posted it, but the Sept edition of the NMME is slightly warmer for DJF than the Aug run, very similar to the CanSIPS.

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not sure if anyone posted it, but the Sept edition of the NMME is slightly warmer for DJF than the Aug run, very similar to the CanSIPS.

Yep. None of the seasonals so far are a toaster oven. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yep. None of the seasonals so far are a toaster oven. 

Well, to be fair, they never predict the +10 month....they have also been trending warmer.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, to be fair, they never predict the +10 month....they have also been trending warmer.

Depending on the model, no more than .5C in any 1 month in this area after cooling off around the same amount in August's forecasts. The Cfs2 was already much warmer at this time in 2023 as I previously posted. 

If we are getting a toaster oven that will seriously impact snowfall, we should know it beforehand as, imho, one of the seasonals will show it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Depending on the model, no more than .5C in any 1 month in this area after cooling off around the same amount in August's forecasts. The Cfs2 was already much warmer at this time in 2023 as I previously posted. 

If we are getting a toaster oven that will seriously impact snowfall, we should know it beforehand as, imho, one of the seasonals will show it. 

I agree it won't be as warm as 2023, but seasonal guidance will always underestimate huge monthly anomalies. Don't be surprised if we see one.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Depending on the model, no more than .5C in any 1 month in this area after cooling off around the same amount in August's forecasts. The Cfs2 was already much warmer at this time in 2023 as I previously posted. 

If we are getting a toaster oven that will seriously impact snowfall, we should know it beforehand as, imho, one of the seasonals will show it. 

The issue is the marginal temps these models are depicting, particularly when we get a shot at a coastal storm. Normal/slightly above temps on the seasonals could be a signal for a bunch of chilly rain. The PSU perfect track rainstorms lol. We will likely need a -AO/-EPO to be present in order to overcome the onslaught of Pacific air into our source region and allow colder air to move southward. Not a prediction, but a potential fail mode, as we have seen before in strong Ninos. Location matters ofc. Interior at elevation may do ok. I root for Ninas here since the epic winter of 2009-10, as they have mostly produced avg to slightly above avg snowfall. Ninos have pretty much sucked since then.

[CAPE]

here we go lol

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A seasonal model is never going to predict more than like a +3F month. That's because their accuracy is low and they have a large range of error. 

East-based Nino/-PDO is about as bad as it gets for long range predictors of Winter CONUS warmth. Hopefully the AO help this year. Baltimore/DC average high never really goes below 40 so we do need some below average temps. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

here we go lol

 

That's a monster +AO pattern lol

Since the Solar Max peak in 2024, the warm seasons 2024, 2025 and 2026 have been very +ao. I think it's more of a decadal state, and just minimizes the potential for 09-10 type -NAO or 15-16 type +PNA

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 hours ago, CAPE said:

I root for Ninas here

However most of our recent shut out torch fests been during niñas.

[dailylurker]

15 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

However most of our recent shut out torch fests been during niñas.

They are also our "real winters". Long stretches of cold air, frozen lakes, long duration snowcover, ect. I love winter. Not just snow one day and 70 the next day. I'll take a Nina any winter. They also produce huge snowpacks east of Ontario where I'm moving during winters. 

[mitchnick]

10 hours ago, CAPE said:

The issue is the marginal temps these models are depicting, particularly when we get a shot at a coastal storm. Normal/slightly above temps on the seasonals could be a signal for a bunch of chilly rain. The PSU perfect track rainstorms lol. We will likely need a -AO/-EPO to be present in order to overcome the onslaught of Pacific air into our source region and allow colder air to move southward. Not a prediction, but a potential fail mode, as we have seen before in strong Ninos. Location matters ofc. Interior at elevation may do ok. I root for Ninas here since the epic winter of 2009-10, as they have mostly produced avg to slightly above avg snowfall. Ninos have pretty much sucked since then.

The odds of temps this winter averaging AN are high. Nothing is for certain in wx, so I wouldn't say it's a guarantee, but as close to one as you can probably get all things considered. December will likely suck for snow short of a fluke and, relative to average, will probably be the warmest. Beyond that, anything is possible and I find it notable the fact we have yet to see a toaster oven from any of the seasonals as a positive. If anyone wants to take a position that it's a strong Niño so the glass is cracked and only a few drops are left in it when comes to snow chances, that's up to them. But until I see reasonable consensus among seasonal guidance that a 96/97 or 23/24 is a legit possibility, as opposed to seasonal guidance ain't good enough to see that or some variation of that opinion, I'll remain positive in light of the potential a strong Niño gives for snow in the Mid Atlantic. 

[psuhoffman]

16 hours ago, CAPE said:

The issue is the marginal temps these models are depicting, particularly when we get a shot at a coastal storm. Normal/slightly above temps on the seasonals could be a signal for a bunch of chilly rain. The PSU perfect track rainstorms lol. We will likely need a -AO/-EPO to be present in order to overcome the onslaught of Pacific air into our source region and allow colder air to move southward. Not a prediction, but a potential fail mode, as we have seen before in strong Ninos. Location matters ofc. Interior at elevation may do ok. I root for Ninas here since the epic winter of 2009-10, as they have mostly produced avg to slightly above avg snowfall. Ninos have pretty much sucked since then.

I share the same concerns, but a slightly warm seasonal avg would imply we "should" get cold periods because when it gets warm we tend to go crazy warm. I doubt we get a uniform near to slight above avg temp regime the whole winter.  If we have volatility and it averages out to +2 that's fine...we can't snow anymore during warm periods anyways...just have to hit the big one during whatever cold we do get. 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I share the same concerns, but a slightly warm seasonal avg would imply we "should" get cold periods because when it gets warm we tend to go crazy warm. I doubt we get a uniform near to slight above avg temp regime the whole winter.  If we have volatility and it averages out to +2 that's fine...we can't snow anymore during warm periods anyways...just have to hit the big one during whatever cold we do get. 

I'm not pessimistic, just one of several posts about the subjective nature of trying to glean details from the seasonal tools. They are all depicting the same general idea. Need the Aleutian trough to not be an eastward displaced beast all winter, and we should gets some shots of cold. Have to follow Judah to find out if the AO will be our friend.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Hello AMWxers! This post from CIMSS has my attention. We all know what happened the other two record low hurricane years! 

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'm not pessimistic, just one of several posts about the subjective nature of trying to glean details from the seasonal tools. They are all depicting the same general idea. Need the Aleutian trough to not be an eastward displaced beast all winter, and we should gets some shots of cold. Have to follow Judah to find out if the AO will be our friend.

I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air.