Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Where’s the can kick?

Punting from September to October. There were signs that September was going to turn wet but over the course of this week the modeling for it completely collapsed.

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Punting from September to October. There were signs that September was going to turn wet but over the course of this week the modeling for it completely collapsed.

True about the models, but I don’t think that was a real can kick. If October is abnormally dry though, I’ll concede

[mitchnick]

50 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

True about the models, but I don’t think that was a real can kick. If October is abnormally dry though, I’ll concede

Good thing you chose meteorology over politics! Lol

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Good thing you chose meteorology over politics! Lol

Oh i could never be a politician. I’m too honest for that

[Golf757075]

On 8/28/2026 at 11:04 AM, Terpeast said:

Oh i could never be a politician. I’m too honest for that

I hardly ever post in these forums, but I thought this was interesting. 

[CAPE]

 

[CAPE]

An improvement over the previous run, which was pretty good for a seasonal product. Better in the EPO and NAO domains for Jan. Colder look for the MA.

[CAPE]

February is marginally better than the previous run too.

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

February is marginally better than the previous run too.

We just need to get Chuck on board

[CAPE]

Just now, Terpeast said:

We just need to get Chuck on board

-PNA!

[mitchnick]

Yeehah!

[TSSN+]

Yes please 

[WxUSAF]

^weenie run. 
 

not holding my breath 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^weenie run. 
 

not holding my breath 

Cfs warm December but looks good for later winter with plenty precip. Here’s hoping. 

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Cfs warm December but looks good for later winter with plenty precip. Here’s hoping. 

I’d be shocked if December is anything else than a torch. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d be shocked if December is anything else than a torch. 

I wonder if someone should do a max high temperature contest similar to the snowfall contest.

[Terpeast]

Those cansips 2m maps are probably wrong for the northern tier, where 500mb shows ridging in those areas. BN temps probably confined to tennessee valley and south, with us being NN or a couple degrees above. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Those cansips 2m maps are probably wrong for the northern tier, where 500mb shows ridging in those areas. BN temps probably confined to tennessee valley and south, with us being NN or a couple degrees above. 

Keep reality to yourself please, i like to dream. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CANSIPS had a cool August for places that ended up +4F at a 0.0 month lead. In the south it had near 0F forecast, and it was +4-6f. Terrible forecast when the first 15 days of the month are already short range modeled. 

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, ravensrule said:

Keep reality to yourself please, i like to dream. 

If it makes you feel better, my top 4 analogs:

1997-98
2015-16
1982-83
1965-66

I’ll let someone else make a blended map of these and draw similarities between 3 out of 4 of these. 

[SnowenOutThere]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If it makes you feel better, my top 4 analogs:

1997-98
2015-16
1982-83
1965-66

I’ll let someone else make a blended map of these and draw similarities between 3 out of 4 of these. 

I'm wondering how this winter might be different for myself down in Charlottesville. Obviously, I'm still in the hope for a big storm category but otherwise are there any meaningful differences? 

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'm wondering how this winter might be different for myself down in Charlottesville. Obviously, I'm still in the hope for a big storm category but otherwise are there any meaningful differences? 

Differences are PDO (97-98 was super +PDO so careful what we wish for) and 1965-66 was low solar (we’re high but descending). I think a blend of these will land us close to what’ll happen this winter - milder and wetter than normal with elevated big dog potential. Other than that, not a whole lot to parse. 

Key thing to watch is where and how strong the Canadian ridge is. Too strong and too far east, storms either suppressed or rain. More west, we get colder air with a still active STJ.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

If it makes you feel better, my top 4 analogs:

1997-98
2015-16
1982-83
1965-66

I’ll let someone else make a blended map of these and draw similarities between 3 out of 4 of these. 

If 98 was slightly colder…there were several storms that were close. It did snow up here that winter. Not a ton but lots of storms were a mix up here that winter. 5 degrees colder and 2-3 of those big rainstorms would have been snow. That’s what we have to hope for. 98 the pacific trough was just a bit too far east and overwhelming.  66 was the outlier in the other direction.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If 98 was slightly colder…there were several storms that were close. It did snow up here that winter. Not a ton but lots of storms were a mix up here that winter. 5 degrees colder and 2-3 of those big rainstorms would have been snow. That’s what we have to hope for. 98 the pacific trough was just a bit too far east and overwhelming.  66 was the outlier in the other direction.  

Yeah 20 years of global warming after that. We realistically need a -EPO or -NAO. A lot of people don't realize, but we have yet to see our 1st N. Pacific trough since the El Nino developed! A lot of these Super Nino analogs have something like -150dm for DJFM, lack of awareness about the current pattern imo

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah 20 years of global warming after that. We realistically need a -EPO or -NAO. A lot of people don't realize, but we have yet to see our 1st N. Pacific trough since the El Nino developed! A lot of these Super Nino analogs have something like -150dm for DJFM, lack of awareness about the current pattern imo

Dude… every time I bring up an example where it’s getting harder to snow you argue. Then you drop this. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/27/2026 at 6:47 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My point is that if mitchnick is saying the El Nino is not yet effecting the pattern, then you can say that no La Nina has effected the pattern ever. 

It's affecting the pattern a great deal in the tropics, probably more so than any ENSO event in history at this time of year, but it's impact in the mid latitudes of the N HEM remains rather meager at this time.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude… every time I bring up an example where it’s getting harder to snow you argue. Then you drop this. 

I've been traumatized by this ridge in the SW, US/Rockies for the past 1 year. There are +6F anomalies for the whole 12 months! Also looking at global temperature every day, it really has gone warm lately. France has also seen 5 record breaking heat waves this Summer. 

We can do a cold pattern in the Winter, but I don't know that the upper latitudes (blocking potential) won't be squeezed out by El Nino or the -PDO/whatever the global pattern is in the Pacific. Fairbanks, Alaska was 1F away from their lowest Summer max temp all time, and I ran those analogs forward to find out they go +EPO in Winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's affecting the pattern a great deal in the tropics, probably more so than any ENSO event in history at this time of year, but it's impact in the mid latitudes of the N HEM remains rather meager at this time.

It's interesting because it seems to be effecting the Southern Hemisphere. October is the start of big wavelength correlations, so it will be so interesting to see what happens in about a month! If the -H5 doesn't form over the N. Pacific, score a big one for the PDO.