Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[mahantango#1]

[pawatch]

48 degrees this morning. Maybe start the day in jeans  

[Voyager]

3 minutes ago, pawatch said:

48 degrees this morning. Maybe start the day in jeans  

53 this morning here. I'd be wearing jeans today for work if I had an earlier start than 8am. By the time I load the first tank of the day, the sun is starting to warm things up.

Gonna need the heat in the car, though, for starters.

[Blizzard of 93]

57 for the low in Marysville.

Should be a beautiful late July day.

[mahantango#1]

US National Weather Service State College PA 

Favorites ·steprnoSdo396f351052g6h810cug4346m98517t4a4310t48287lm7208lu ·

 

Next 3 days: Doesn't get much better for late July

Humidity and rain risk ramp up for early next week

7/23/26|638am

[mahantango#1]

16 minutes ago, Voyager said:

53 this morning here. I'd be wearing jeans today for work if I had an earlier start than 8am. By the time I load the first tank of the day, the sun is starting to warm things up.

Gonna need the heat in the car, though, for starters.

Please refrain from using the heater in your vehicle in July. One must not use the heater in a vehicle until late September. Don't give in to temptation.

[Albedoman]

While many people are enjoying the recent stretch of cooler temperatures and low humidity, this weather pattern is becoming increasingly concerning for farmers and water resources throughout the Lehigh Valley.

Lehigh County is now officially under a Pennsylvania DEP Drought Warning, reflecting the continued deterioration of soil moisture, groundwater supplies, and streamflows. Residents are being asked to voluntarily conserve water as the drought continues to worsen.

The comfortable weather is actually working against agriculture. Lower humidity, cool nights, breezy afternoons, and the lack of widespread soaking rains continue to dry out already stressed soils. Corn, soybeans, hay, vegetables, orchards, and pasturelands are all feeling the effects, and each rain-free day adds more stress to this year's crops. Lehigh County already has thousands of acres of corn, soybeans, and hay currently experiencing drought conditions.

Another concern has been the apparent pattern over the past three weeks where numerous showers and thunderstorms have weakened, split apart, or tracked around portions of the Lehigh Valley, leaving many locations with little or no meaningful rainfall while surrounding areas received much heavier amounts. Whether you call it the local "donut hole" or simply an unfortunate weather pattern, the result has been the same—many farms have missed the widespread soaking rains desperately needed to recharge soil moisture.

Perhaps most concerning, there are currently no tropical systems or significant tropical moisture plumes on the immediate horizon that appear capable of delivering the widespread one- to three-inch rainfall that would substantially improve drought conditions.

Many people are enjoying this beautiful summer weather today, but if this dry pattern continues into August, opinions will likely change quickly. Brown lawns, stressed crops, falling stream levels, declining groundwater supplies, and increasing wildfire concerns could become the story of the summer.

The Lehigh Valley doesn't need another picture-perfect day—it needs several widespread soaking rains.

[canderson]

It is October outside!!!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 55. Beautiful days. Had our largest tree, a two and a half foot diameter pine, fall out of the blue yesterday.  Luckily it didn’t take out anything structural but it fell into some other trees and my neighbor’s yard, so quite the mess to deal with over here. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 55. Beautiful days. Had our largest tree, a two and a half foot diameter pine, fall out of the blue yesterday.  Luckily it didn’t take out anything structural but it fell into some other trees and my neighbor’s yard, so quite the mess to deal with over here. 

Dang, sorry to hear that. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Please refrain from using the heater in your vehicle in July. One must not use the heater in a vehicle until late September. Don't give in to temptation.

I know we're all different and we like/love/react to things very differently. I can't imagine turning on any type of heat source in July. Ever. Or in August. Or in September. MAYBE by late October...MAYBE...

  

[canderson]

13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 55. Beautiful days. Had our largest tree, a two and a half foot diameter pine, fall out of the blue yesterday.  Luckily it didn’t take out anything structural but it fell into some other trees and my neighbor’s yard, so quite the mess to deal with over here. 

Was it rotted? 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

30 minutes ago, canderson said:

Was it rotted? 

Yeah it seems there was some internal rot but showed no exterior signs.  Always looked very healthy and put off lots of new growth.  I will say it was a leaner.  From the moment we moved into this house I knew it could eventually go, despite its massive size and healthy appearance.  The lean was in a direction away from the house so we never worried about it too much and luckily it played out that way.

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

While many people are enjoying the recent stretch of cooler temperatures and low humidity, this weather pattern is becoming increasingly concerning for farmers and water resources throughout the Lehigh Valley.

Lehigh County is now officially under a Pennsylvania DEP Drought Warning, reflecting the continued deterioration of soil moisture, groundwater supplies, and streamflows. Residents are being asked to voluntarily conserve water as the drought continues to worsen.

The comfortable weather is actually working against agriculture. Lower humidity, cool nights, breezy afternoons, and the lack of widespread soaking rains continue to dry out already stressed soils. Corn, soybeans, hay, vegetables, orchards, and pasturelands are all feeling the effects, and each rain-free day adds more stress to this year's crops. Lehigh County already has thousands of acres of corn, soybeans, and hay currently experiencing drought conditions.

Another concern has been the apparent pattern over the past three weeks where numerous showers and thunderstorms have weakened, split apart, or tracked around portions of the Lehigh Valley, leaving many locations with little or no meaningful rainfall while surrounding areas received much heavier amounts. Whether you call it the local "donut hole" or simply an unfortunate weather pattern, the result has been the same—many farms have missed the widespread soaking rains desperately needed to recharge soil moisture.

Perhaps most concerning, there are currently no tropical systems or significant tropical moisture plumes on the immediate horizon that appear capable of delivering the widespread one- to three-inch rainfall that would substantially improve drought conditions.

Many people are enjoying this beautiful summer weather today, but if this dry pattern continues into August, opinions will likely change quickly. Brown lawns, stressed crops, falling stream levels, declining groundwater supplies, and increasing wildfire concerns could become the story of the summer.

The Lehigh Valley doesn't need another picture-perfect day—it needs several widespread soaking rains.

Driving back and forth over the Blue Mountain multiple times per day, it's easy to see the haves and have nots just by looking at the lawns on either side. Green in Schuylkill County and brown in Lehigh County.

[Voyager]

53 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I know we're all different and we like/love/react to things very differently. I can't imagine turning on any type of heat source in July. Ever. Or in August. Or in September. MAYBE by late October...MAYBE...

  

I can't seem to tolerate "extremes" on either side of the calendar anymore. Cold always bothered me, but now summer heat and humidity does as well.

I probably should move to San Diego.

[ChescoWx]

Plenty of low temperatures in the 50's this morning with the Warwick DEOS our usual chilly spot at 51.8 degrees. One of the best stretches of weather we have seen in quite a while is underway. Below normal temperatures ranging from the upper 70's to low 80's with lows in the 50's to near 60 degrees through the weekend and into the start of next week. Next chances of any showers looks to be Monday night.

[mahantango#1]

NWS State College: So far this year, we have issued more Severe Thunderstorm + Tornado Warnings than any time in our office's history!

 

238 SVR + TOR warnings year-to-date surpasses 2019 (232) and 1998 (230).

 

We are GRATEFUL for this ongoing stretch of tranquil weather.

#PAwx

[TheDreamTraveler]

5 hours ago, Albedoman said:

While many people are enjoying the recent stretch of cooler temperatures and low humidity, this weather pattern is becoming increasingly concerning for farmers and water resources throughout the Lehigh Valley.

Lehigh County is now officially under a Pennsylvania DEP Drought Warning, reflecting the continued deterioration of soil moisture, groundwater supplies, and streamflows. Residents are being asked to voluntarily conserve water as the drought continues to worsen.

The comfortable weather is actually working against agriculture. Lower humidity, cool nights, breezy afternoons, and the lack of widespread soaking rains continue to dry out already stressed soils. Corn, soybeans, hay, vegetables, orchards, and pasturelands are all feeling the effects, and each rain-free day adds more stress to this year's crops. Lehigh County already has thousands of acres of corn, soybeans, and hay currently experiencing drought conditions.

Another concern has been the apparent pattern over the past three weeks where numerous showers and thunderstorms have weakened, split apart, or tracked around portions of the Lehigh Valley, leaving many locations with little or no meaningful rainfall while surrounding areas received much heavier amounts. Whether you call it the local "donut hole" or simply an unfortunate weather pattern, the result has been the same—many farms have missed the widespread soaking rains desperately needed to recharge soil moisture.

Perhaps most concerning, there are currently no tropical systems or significant tropical moisture plumes on the immediate horizon that appear capable of delivering the widespread one- to three-inch rainfall that would substantially improve drought conditions.

Many people are enjoying this beautiful summer weather today, but if this dry pattern continues into August, opinions will likely change quickly. Brown lawns, stressed crops, falling stream levels, declining groundwater supplies, and increasing wildfire concerns could become the story of the summer.

The Lehigh Valley doesn't need another picture-perfect day—it needs several widespread soaking rains.

Yeah I'm very worried about the tropical season this year due to the super El Nino developing and the Atlantic La Nina popping up. Doesn't mean we can't inch out a tropical system or two making their way through PA but those chances are massively decreased this year. Now if we weren't in such dire drought conditions it wouldn't be much of an issue but that's usually a saving grace at any other time. The 2026 atlantic hurricane season could be as quiet as the 2015 season was which was extremely inactive. In 2015 we had 4 hurricanes and 11 tropical storms which was also another super El Nino year. Though I don't think we were worrying about rain that year according to the drought monitor data from that summer so it wasn't such a big issue. Here's hoping we get lucky with a storm or two despite the low activity.

[pawatch]

6 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 55. Beautiful days. Had our largest tree, a two and a half foot diameter pine, fall out of the blue yesterday.  Luckily it didn’t take out anything structural but it fell into some other trees and my neighbor’s yard, so quite the mess to deal with over here. 

Did the wind have anything to do with it failing? Only good thing is at least we are having cool weather and less humidity for cleanup. 

[TheDreamTraveler]

So is there an exact reason why weather forecasting has been so inaccurate the past year or two? High today was supposed to be 79 and it's already up to 83. This has been happening a lot more lately not just with temps but inaccurate predictions when it comes to rain and storms as well.

[canderson]

2 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

So is there an exact reason why weather forecasting has been so inaccurate the past year or two? High today was supposed to be 79 and it's already up to 83. This has been happening a lot more lately not just with temps but inaccurate predictions when it comes to rain and storms as well.

DOGE is one big reason 

[Jns2183]

@Voyager

Voyager’s Tamaqua Weather Station: A 91-Day QC Autopsy

Voyager was kind enough to point me to his station in Tamaqua, so naturally I reacted in the most restrained and proportionate way possible.

I downloaded 26,090 five-minute observations, catalogued 67 nearby station identities, untangled duplicate names and aliases, built several reference networks, pulled Pennsylvania Mesonet and ASOS data, aligned PRISM to its actual observation day, extracted 2,184 hourly Stage IV precipitation grids, separated rainfall into storm events, tested nearby personal stations one at a time, and dropped the whole thing onto a 30-meter terrain model.

At some point this stopped being “Does Voyager’s thermometer read a little warm?” and became a minor federal research program, except it produced results and nobody had to attend a webinar.

The analysis covers April 22 through July 21, 2026, a total of 91 days.

The basic method, or how far down the rabbit hole went

The core record was the station’s native five-minute archive. I preserved the raw observations and rebuilt hourly and daily values rather than relying entirely on precomputed summaries.

For reference data, I used a professional-tier group consisting mainly of four Pennsylvania Mesonet stations, two airport ASOS sites, and one Pennsylvania DEP station. I also tested six nearby personal or CWOP stations against that professional group to see whether they were trustworthy enough to join the comparison.

Then came PRISM.

PRISM daily data does not use the normal local-calendar day. Its precipitation day ends at 12 UTC, which is 8 AM during daylight time. My first daily comparison used local midnight and briefly suggested that Voyager’s rainfall had almost no relationship to regional precipitation.

This would have been a remarkable meteorological discovery.

It was instead a timestamp problem.

Once I rebuilt everything using the correct 12 UTC boundary, the relationship became extremely strong. The atmosphere was acquitted. The clocks were guilty.

I then added NCEP Stage IV precipitation. That gave me 2,184 complete hourly multisensor precipitation fields covering the study period. Rather than comparing Voyager with one arbitrarily chosen grid cell, I extracted:

the nearest Stage IV cell,

the median of the surrounding 3×3 cells,

and the median of the surrounding 5×5 cells.


That matters because a rain gauge measures one point, while Stage IV estimates precipitation over an area. Thunderstorms remain stubbornly unwilling to distribute their rain evenly for the convenience of spreadsheets.

Finally, I placed the station and reference network onto a real 30-meter digital elevation model of the Tamaqua area. This allowed me to compare the statistical behavior with the actual terrain rather than merely saying “mountains probably did something,” which is the traditional Pennsylvania forecasting method.

Finding number one: the station record itself is structurally good

The native archive is nearly continuous and passed the basic physical and internal-consistency checks.

I did not find widespread impossible temperatures, broken timestamp ordering, random cumulative-rain resets, or the usual assortment of digital woodland creatures that live inside personal weather station archives.

There is, however, one extremely clear processing artifact.

The final five-minute observation of each local day contains corrupted daily high/low and precipitation-rate information.

Across the 91 days:

the mean high-minus-low spread in that final observation was 24.4°F,

the median spread was 25.2°F,

80 of the 91 days showed a spread greater than 10°F,

and all 36 isolated rain-rate blips in the entire record occurred in that same final local-day bin.


Every one of them.

Once I removed that final observation from precipitation-rate analysis, no isolated rain flickers remained. The genuine rainfall events had coherent multi-interval structure.

This does not look like a thermometer or tipping-bucket failure. It looks like the daily summary fields are being folded into the final observation during the local-midnight rollover.

The fix is wonderfully simple after all the detective work:

Keep the raw archive, but exclude the final local-day five-minute observation from daily high/low and precipitation-rate analyses.

Cumulative rainfall totals appear to remain usable.

Temperature: good at night, warm under sunshine and weak wind

Voyager’s overnight temperatures behaved quite well against the nearby reference network.

The nighttime temperature bias was close to zero. The station and surrounding references generally agreed around the morning minimum.

The daytime behavior was different.

The station tended to run warmer during sunny conditions, and the warm bias increased when the wind was light. Under strong sun and calm conditions, the difference was roughly three degrees greater than during dark or overcast periods. Daily maximum temperatures also ran several degrees warmer than the PRISM estimate, while daily minima were close to unbiased.

The timing helps tell the story. Voyager’s station typically reached its afternoon maximum about an hour earlier than the surrounding reference ensemble. That is what I would expect from a sensor environment responding too directly to solar heating or poor ventilation.

A simple calibration error would shift the temperature almost equally at noon and at 5 AM.

That is not what happened.

Therefore, applying one flat temperature correction would be a bad idea. It would improve some sunny afternoons and make the nighttime values worse.

My interpretation is:

nighttime temperatures are generally reliable,

daytime temperatures should be viewed with more caution during sunny and calm periods,

and any future adjustment should depend on solar radiation and wind rather than being a fixed number.


Humidity, dew point, and vapor-pressure deficit also showed systematic differences and should be used conditionally. They are mathematically tied to temperature, so a solar-heated temperature sensor can spread its mischief into several derived variables. One biased input variable, many exciting downstream consequences. Software engineers call this efficiency.

Rainfall: the gauge did very well

This was probably the strongest part of the entire station.

Across 2,174 eligible station–Stage IV hourly comparisons:

Voyager recorded 10.96 inches,

the Stage IV 3×3 neighborhood median recorded 11.12 inches,

the difference was only 0.16 inch,

and the total ratio was 0.986.


The hourly correlation with the 3×3 Stage IV median was 0.930.

For wet hours only, the correlation was 0.899.

When I grouped precipitation into 36 storm events, the event-total correlation rose to 0.957. The cumulative event ratio was 1.012, and the median absolute difference per event was only 0.05 inch.

Timing was also good:

the median storm-onset difference was zero hours,

the median ending-time difference was zero hours,

81% of storm onsets were within one hour,

and 85% of endings were within one hour.


The station became more reliable as rainfall intensity increased:

during Stage IV hours of 0.01–0.10 inch, Voyager also reported rain about 72% of the time,

from 0.10–0.25 inch, detection rose to about 94%,

and every Stage IV hour above 0.25 inch was detected.


In other words, the disagreements were concentrated mainly in drizzle, traces, and highly localized light showers. Moderate and heavy rainfall was captured very well.

That is exactly the pattern I would prefer to see. Trace precipitation is where point gauges, radar estimates, hour boundaries, virga, and the general perversity of Appalachian weather all begin arguing.

The spatial comparison was especially revealing:

nearest Stage IV cell: 12.75 inches,

3×3 median: 11.12 inches,

Voyager: 10.96 inches,

5×5 median: 10.11 inches.


The gauge falls between a wetter nearby grid cell and a drier broader neighborhood.

That tells me the remaining differences are not simply “the gauge is low” or “the radar is high.” The local precipitation field genuinely varied across only a few grid cells.

I found no evidence supporting a universal rain multiplier.

My conclusion is that Voyager’s cumulative and storm-scale precipitation record is trustworthy, with normal uncertainty during light and highly localized precipitation.

One caution: Stage IV is a multisensor areal estimate, not divine revelation descending from the radar dome. It should not be treated as exact point-gauge truth.

Wind: local, messy, and behaving exactly like wind

Wind was the least transferable variable, which is not the same as saying it was bad.

Correlations with the Pennsylvania Mesonet sites were reasonable for stations separated by several miles, while correlations with the more openly exposed airport sites were weaker. Wind-direction differences were often large.

That sounds alarming until one remembers where Tamaqua is located.

Voyager’s site sits in a valley environment surrounded by complex ridges. Wind near the surface is blocked, redirected, accelerated through openings, and occasionally sent down the wrong hallway by terrain and nearby structures.

An airport anemometer on an open field and a residential anemometer inside Appalachian terrain are not measuring quite the same atmosphere. Demanding identical values from them would be like comparing traffic speed on Interstate 81 with traffic speed on a Tamaqua side street and concluding that one speedometer is defective.

Voyager’s wind data is useful for:

local wind trends,

frontal passages,

gust timing,

calm-versus-mixed regimes,

and what the wind is actually doing at his property.


It should not be expected to match an airport or ridge-top exposure exactly.

Terrain provided the physical explanation

The station’s terrain cell has:

a mean elevation of about 274 meters, or 900 feet,

roughly 86 meters of local relief,

an average slope near 7.7 degrees,

a low topographic-position value consistent with a valley setting,

and predominantly western terrain exposure.


That terrain context matches several findings:

1. Nighttime temperatures were close to the references.
Valleys favor cold-air drainage and nighttime pooling.


2. The daytime warm bias increased when it was sunny and calm.
A sheltered setting can retain locally heated air when ventilation is weak.


3. Wind direction and speed differed substantially from open reference sites.
Valley channeling and terrain blocking are expected.



This does not prove the exact sensor-level cause. A digital elevation model cannot see the station’s mounting pole, nearby roof, fence, tree, radiation shield, or neighbor who planted an ornamental shrub in precisely the wrong place.

But the terrain provides a physically credible setting for the observed behavior.

Pressure, solar, and the remaining odds and ends

Relative pressure performed very well and was among the cleanest variables in the comparison. I found no reason to change the current pressure setting based on this study.

Solar radiation was useful mainly for identifying the temperature bias regime. The station’s available solar field behaved well enough as a timing and peak-intensity indicator, but it was not a clean integrated-energy measurement. I would use it for relative solar conditions rather than treat it as laboratory-grade daily energy.

I made no soil-moisture conclusions about Voyager’s station because it does not have a soil-moisture sensor. I studied nearby network soil sensors as context, but eventually resisted the temptation to grade equipment that does not exist. Scientific discipline occasionally survives.

Final verdict

Voyager does not have a failed station.

He has a largely strong station record with:

one sharply defined end-of-day processing artifact,

a daytime temperature and humidity bias that depends on sunshine and ventilation,

precipitation performance that is excellent at the event and seasonal-total scales,

wind measurements that represent his immediate valley exposure rather than a regional open-air standard,

and pressure data that performs very well.


My practical recommendations are straightforward:

preserve the native five-minute archive,

filter the final local-day five-minute bin from high/low and precipitation-rate work,

retain the cumulative rainfall totals,

do not apply a flat temperature correction,

interpret daytime temperature, humidity, and VPD in the context of sun and wind,

and treat wind as a local microscale measurement.


After 26,090 observations, 2,184 Stage IV grids, several reference networks, corrected day boundaries, storm-by-storm scoring, and one digital elevation model, my conclusion is reassuringly ordinary:

Voyager’s station is good. It simply lives in Tamaqua......

tis was fun

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk