Anomalous Late Spring storm May 30 2026

[HoarfrostHubb]

Figured we could have a thread about this as Vortex69 mentioned.  Some good winds, rain for some... maybe even some flakes.  NH mountains could grab a few inches

 

[vortex95]

Interesting what the 12z HRRR shows.  It has a very high QPF max of 5.77" over SW ME.  Other models do not show this, but sfc low is a tight SUCKA and I wonder about mesoscale factors.  SPC has general tstms outlooked and convection stirs things up better aloft.  This results in stronger downdrafts to mix down the cold air aloft better.  850 and 925 mb temps are cold enough by 12z in this area and that kind of pcpn intensity?  The ante is very high here!  Can you imagine on the coast w/ super paste and G50kt?  I'd love to be at Hampton Beach Sat AM!

The reason the HRRR shows this big pcpn max in SW ME is b/c the area is at the pivot point of the N side of the comma head, so they cash in w/ a heavy pcpn area nearly stationary in a relative sense.  Such a scenario is not unreasonable and the global models would not pick up on something like this.  So we may have two pcpn maxes, one over the White Mtns and another coastal ME/NH.

 

Look at the HRRR sim radar late this eve/very early Sat over NH/VT, TRW+ FQT LTGICCG surprise before the S+??? 

This is about as good as it gets for the uncertainty factor for big S+ and "PHUN 'N GAMES!"  Scott should be impressed!  Could be a truly exceptional event.  Big snowfall like this so late (higher and lower elevations)?  You have to go back to the 19th century (1816 and 1842 in June) for anything later.  MWN had 24.9" in the May 25-26, 1967 event and they could exceed that for the May single storm record.
 

[wx_observer]

9 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Interesting what the 12z HRRR shows.  It has a very high QPF max of 5.77" over SW ME.  Other models do not show this, but sfc low is a tight SUCKA and I wonder about mesoscale factors.  SPC has general tstms outlooked and convection stirs things up better aloft.  This results in stronger downdrafts to mix down the cold air aloft better.  850 and 925 mb temps are cold enough by 12z in this area and that kind of pcpn intensity?  The ante is very high here!  Can you imagine on the coast w/ super paste and G50kt?  I'd love to be at Hampton Beach Sat AM!

The reason the HRRR shows this big pcpn max in SW ME is b/c the area is at the pivot point of the N side of the comma head, so they cash in w/ a heavy pcpn area nearly stationary in a relative sense.  Such a scenario is not unreasonable and the global models would not pick up on something like this.  So we may have two pcpn maxes, one over the White Mtns and another coastal ME/NH.

 

Look at the HRRR sim radar late this eve/very early Sat over NH/VT, TRW+ FQT LTGICCG surprise before the S+??? 

This is about as good as it gets for the uncertainty factor for big S+ and "PHUN 'N GAMES!"  Scott should be impressed!  Could be a truly exceptional event.  Big snowfall like this so late (higher and lower elevations)?  You have to go back to the 19th century (1816 and 1842 in June) for anything later.  MWN had 24.9" in the May 25-26, 1967 event and they could exceed that for the May single storm record.
 

So what does that look like in terms of surface winds?  I'm in central MA and trying to figure out if I need to protect the veggie garden plants.

[HoarfrostHubb]

40 minutes ago, wx_observer said:

So what does that look like in terms of surface winds?  I'm in central MA and trying to figure out if I need to protect the veggie garden plants.

I'm not expecting much for winds in central Mass... breezy sure, but nothing super unusual... further east (esp coastal NH and ME) could be fun

[dendrite]

Some of the modeling has 35-40mph gusts down there in ORH county. But this is obviously anomalous and dynamic for this time of year. It does give me 2013 sensible wx vibes for NNE though…albeit a different evolution. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Some of the modeling has 35-40mph gusts down there in ORH county. But this is obviously anomalous and dynamic for this time of year. It does give me 2013 sensible wx vibes for NNE though…albeit a different evolution. 

llvl lapse rates may be steep enough to support gusts 35-40 mph inland. Also, the lack of rain farther inland and even potential for some cloud breaks may allow better than expected mixing (evident by the steep llvl lapse rates)

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Some of the modeling has 35-40mph gusts down there in ORH county. But this is obviously anomalous and dynamic for this time of year. It does give me 2013 sensible wx vibes for NNE though…albeit a different evolution. 

Tolland 

[Damage In Tolland]

Partly sunny SW of ORH from late morning ion with the jet screaming at 6,000 feet . There’ll be 40-50 mph gusts inland with mixing where sun pops 

[Ginx snewx]

Mt Washington 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Those winds on the Rockpile seem very meh

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I could see 40-45 from 495 through Tolland.

[vortex95]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Those winds on the Rockpile seem very meh

Good!  They can get a better snowfall measurement!

Maybe snow will not be so wet here.  Those are cold temps.  Well, GFS now has 850 temps as low as -5 C across NNE so there you go! W/ such cold temps at 6000 ft, you have to think that down to 2000 ft in NNE could do very well w/ super wet glop.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Gene’s gonna pull 3-6” . And I don’t mean Simmons tongue 

[jbenedet]

Guidance way off on the timing of this. Much faster than progged. Gonna be raining here by 20z tonight and out by 10z tomorrow.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Guidance way off on the timing of this. Much faster than progged. Gonna be raining here by 20z tonight and out by 10z tomorrow.

Models had 20z ish there. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Advisories back to ORH now. Still not far enough west and they’ll react during the event as usual 

[CoastalWx]

HWW. Cape cod. Some models have the LLJ even stronger Cape Ann to eastern Plymouth County. If the Cape has one, then they should probably have one.

[Typhoon Tip]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Quebec-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Typhoon Tip]

almost sub-synoptic scale.   tight sucker.  

 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Those winds on the Rockpile seem very meh

I’ll take the over there tomorrow morning

[Typhoon Tip]

almost looks like this thing's truckin' along faster than guidance.   geesh, we're dry slotting here by 10 pm

[metagraphica]

Pretty interesting watching this thing drop SSE from Hudson's Bay.

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr violent. Nam meh.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, metagraphica said:

Pretty interesting watching this thing drop SSE from Hudson's Bay.

[CoastalWx]

Line of carnage heading into VT. Will hang here tonight and await Phil here tomorrow morning. Hopefully head north with trees toppling on 93.

[Chrisrotary12]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is a fascinating little critter. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like it’s somewhat east of guidance 

[CoastalWx]

Looks on target to me 

[Chrisrotary12]

HRRR is waking up tomorrow and choosing violence.

[Modfan2]

Birch bender for some?