HoarfrostHubb Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Figured we could have a thread about this as Vortex69 mentioned. Some good winds, rain for some... maybe even some flakes. NH mountains could grab a few inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Interesting what the 12z HRRR shows. It has a very high QPF max of 5.77" over SW ME. Other models do not show this, but sfc low is a tight SUCKA and I wonder about mesoscale factors. SPC has general tstms outlooked and convection stirs things up better aloft. This results in stronger downdrafts to mix down the cold air aloft better. 850 and 925 mb temps are cold enough by 12z in this area and that kind of pcpn intensity? The ante is very high here! Can you imagine on the coast w/ super paste and G50kt? I'd love to be at Hampton Beach Sat AM! The reason the HRRR shows this big pcpn max in SW ME is b/c the area is at the pivot point of the N side of the comma head, so they cash in w/ a heavy pcpn area nearly stationary in a relative sense. Such a scenario is not unreasonable and the global models would not pick up on something like this. So we may have two pcpn maxes, one over the White Mtns and another coastal ME/NH. Look at the HRRR sim radar late this eve/very early Sat over NH/VT, TRW+ FQT LTGICCG surprise before the S+??? This is about as good as it gets for the uncertainty factor for big S+ and "PHUN 'N GAMES!" Scott should be impressed! Could be a truly exceptional event. Big snowfall like this so late (higher and lower elevations)? You have to go back to the 19th century (1816 and 1842 in June) for anything later. MWN had 24.9" in the May 25-26, 1967 event and they could exceed that for the May single storm record. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_observer Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 9 minutes ago, vortex95 said: Interesting what the 12z HRRR shows. It has a very high QPF max of 5.77" over SW ME. Other models do not show this, but sfc low is a tight SUCKA and I wonder about mesoscale factors. SPC has general tstms outlooked and convection stirs things up better aloft. This results in stronger downdrafts to mix down the cold air aloft better. 850 and 925 mb temps are cold enough by 12z in this area and that kind of pcpn intensity? The ante is very high here! Can you imagine on the coast w/ super paste and G50kt? I'd love to be at Hampton Beach Sat AM! The reason the HRRR shows this big pcpn max in SW ME is b/c the area is at the pivot point of the N side of the comma head, so they cash in w/ a heavy pcpn area nearly stationary in a relative sense. Such a scenario is not unreasonable and the global models would not pick up on something like this. So we may have two pcpn maxes, one over the White Mtns and another coastal ME/NH. Look at the HRRR sim radar late this eve/very early Sat over NH/VT, TRW+ FQT LTGICCG surprise before the S+??? This is about as good as it gets for the uncertainty factor for big S+ and "PHUN 'N GAMES!" Scott should be impressed! Could be a truly exceptional event. Big snowfall like this so late (higher and lower elevations)? You have to go back to the 19th century (1816 and 1842 in June) for anything later. MWN had 24.9" in the May 25-26, 1967 event and they could exceed that for the May single storm record. So what does that look like in terms of surface winds? I'm in central MA and trying to figure out if I need to protect the veggie garden plants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 29 Author Share Posted May 29 40 minutes ago, wx_observer said: So what does that look like in terms of surface winds? I'm in central MA and trying to figure out if I need to protect the veggie garden plants. I'm not expecting much for winds in central Mass... breezy sure, but nothing super unusual... further east (esp coastal NH and ME) could be fun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Some of the modeling has 35-40mph gusts down there in ORH county. But this is obviously anomalous and dynamic for this time of year. It does give me 2013 sensible wx vibes for NNE though…albeit a different evolution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Some of the modeling has 35-40mph gusts down there in ORH county. But this is obviously anomalous and dynamic for this time of year. It does give me 2013 sensible wx vibes for NNE though…albeit a different evolution. llvl lapse rates may be steep enough to support gusts 35-40 mph inland. Also, the lack of rain farther inland and even potential for some cloud breaks may allow better than expected mixing (evident by the steep llvl lapse rates) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Some of the modeling has 35-40mph gusts down there in ORH county. But this is obviously anomalous and dynamic for this time of year. It does give me 2013 sensible wx vibes for NNE though…albeit a different evolution. Tolland 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Partly sunny SW of ORH from late morning ion with the jet screaming at 6,000 feet . There’ll be 40-50 mph gusts inland with mixing where sun pops 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Mt Washington 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 29 Author Share Posted May 29 Those winds on the Rockpile seem very meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Yeah I could see 40-45 from 495 through Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Those winds on the Rockpile seem very meh Good! They can get a better snowfall measurement! Maybe snow will not be so wet here. Those are cold temps. Well, GFS now has 850 temps as low as -5 C across NNE so there you go! W/ such cold temps at 6000 ft, you have to think that down to 2000 ft in NNE could do very well w/ super wet glop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Gene’s gonna pull 3-6” . And I don’t mean Simmons tongue 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Guidance way off on the timing of this. Much faster than progged. Gonna be raining here by 20z tonight and out by 10z tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 15 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Guidance way off on the timing of this. Much faster than progged. Gonna be raining here by 20z tonight and out by 10z tomorrow. Models had 20z ish there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Advisories back to ORH now. Still not far enough west and they’ll react during the event as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 HWW. Cape cod. Some models have the LLJ even stronger Cape Ann to eastern Plymouth County. If the Cape has one, then they should probably have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Quebec-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 almost sub-synoptic scale. tight sucker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Those winds on the Rockpile seem very meh I’ll take the over there tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 almost looks like this thing's truckin' along faster than guidance. geesh, we're dry slotting here by 10 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Pretty interesting watching this thing drop SSE from Hudson's Bay. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Hrrr violent. Nam meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 1 hour ago, metagraphica said: Pretty interesting watching this thing drop SSE from Hudson's Bay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Line of carnage heading into VT. Will hang here tonight and await Phil here tomorrow morning. Hopefully head north with trees toppling on 93. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is a fascinating little critter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Looks like it’s somewhat east of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Looks on target to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 HRRR is waking up tomorrow and choosing violence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Birch bender for some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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