E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion

[BBasile]

Wanted to capture a super red sunset, but the smoke is so thick the sun was completely blocked.  

[BBasile]

A friend of mine at the Phil's game sent me this photo.  Completely healthy atmosphere.  lol

[Albedoman]

padot comment letter06152026.pdfpadot comment letter06152026.pdf

[LVblizzard]

A lot less smoky out there today. I can even see some blue in the sky. Looking forward to this crap being gone by tomorrow afternoon.

[Violentweatherfan]

14 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

A lot less smoky out there today. I can even see some blue in the sky. Looking forward to this crap being gone by tomorrow afternoon.

Yeah I don’t think it’ll be as bad as forecast today 

[ChescoWx]

Smoke will continue to be a problem through tonight. We should be several degrees cooler than yesterday with what looks like to me no temps near 90 degrees for at least the next couple of weeks. Tomorrow will be warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms across the area. We turn much cooler by Sunday with highs in the upper 70's to near 80. Nighttime lows by Monday morning will be in the 50's across many of our lower valley locations. Temperatures through the next week look to remain below normal through what is on average our hottest week of the year.

[The Iceman]

5% tor probs tomorrow.... actually a pretty interesting severe set up if we can avoid crapvection.

[BBasile]

2 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

A lot less smoky out there today. I can even see some blue in the sky. Looking forward to this crap being gone by tomorrow afternoon.

Unfortunately, it's still quite smokey here. Can still smell it, too.  As someone who is an outdoor runner and cyclist, and absolutely despises treadmills, this shit sucks.  Looking forward to it's exit as well.  

[BBasile]

Enhanced for tomorrow.  

[Chadzachadam]

AQI is much lower than 2023 but the news said this was the first code purple since 2008, confusing. Even still, AQI of 265 imby is grounds for staying inside all day

[JTA66]

1 hour ago, BBasile said:

Enhanced for tomorrow.  

Pass.

 

I threw out a crap ton of groceries the other week after the power outage. Can't afford to keep doing so  

[BBasile]

SPC has increased the risk of strong tornadoes for all of NJ and EPA.  

[JTA66]

Hearing thunder already from a cell just off to my west.

[Albedoman]

After weeks of relentless heat and drought, western Lehigh County finally received its first measurable rainfall in weeks this morning. The thunderstorm produced nearly 0.75 inches of rain, falling in several intense downpours that soaked the ground just in time.

For local agriculture, this rainfall was nothing short of a multi-million-dollar blessing. Corn fields had reached the critical tasseling and silking stage, when adequate moisture is essential to determine kernel development and final yields. Soybean fields were showing increasing signs of drought stress, with curled leaves and slowed growth becoming more evident each day. Without meaningful rainfall, crop losses would have escalated rapidly.

This storm likely saved tens of millions of dollars in potential agricultural losses across western Lehigh County. While it certainly does not end the drought, it arrived at one of the most critical periods of the growing season. Soil moisture has been replenished enough to relieve immediate crop stress, allowing corn and soybeans to resume active growth.

Beyond the water itself, thunderstorms provide another often-overlooked agricultural benefit. Lightning converts atmospheric nitrogen into plant-available nitrate compounds that are carried to the ground by rainfall. Although not a substitute for fertilizer, these natural nitrogen additions can provide a modest nutrient boost, helping crops recover more quickly after prolonged dry weather. Just as importantly, the rainfall washed dust, pollen, and other airborne particles from the atmosphere, improving air quality while refreshing plant foliage.

There is still a long way to go. Subsoil moisture remains well below normal, and additional widespread rainfall will be needed over the coming weeks to sustain crop development through pollination and pod filling. Nevertheless, today's storm represents a major turning point. For farmers who have watched their fields deteriorate under weeks of dry weather, this rainfall was more than welcome—it was timely, valuable, and may ultimately prove to be one of the most important weather events of the summer.

[Albedoman]

In addition to nearly three-quarters of an inch of much-needed rainfall, the thunderstorm also scrubbed weeks of smoke, dust, and other airborne particles from the atmosphere. The rain washed these fine particles onto the landscape while lightning naturally converted atmospheric nitrogen into plant-available forms that were carried into the soil. Although the amount of natural nitrogen is modest compared to commercial fertilizer, every pound helps during a critical stage of crop development. Just as important, the cleaner air and washed foliage allow crops to capture more sunlight, improving photosynthesis and helping fields recover from weeks of drought stress.

[ABE SnowObserver]

So far in East Allentown this morning by the airport it has been bone dry.  However, it poured for a good 20 minutes in Emmaus ( just my south) in the 8:30am timeframe.  Not sure if LVIA recorded any measurable precipitation yet today.  Radar to the west looks promising though. 

[ChescoWx]

We have an extended period of below normal temperatures for late July which looks like it will continue through this entire upcoming week. Our warmest and most humid day will be today, but temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than average. Showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and continue till around midnight. Some areas could see over an inch of needed rainfall. The sun returns both tomorrow and Monday with temperatures in the upper 70's to low 80's. Some valley spots may see lows by Monday morning in the comfortable 50's. Shower chances ramp up again by Tuesday and Wednesday before we clear out toward the end of the work week.

[The Iceman]

4 hours ago, BBasile said:

SPC has increased the risk of strong tornadoes for all of NJ and EPA.  

With that main system going northeast of the city this morning, there should be a boundary set up right across SE PA and SNJ. Actually looking like one of the better non tropical tornado threats in a while. There’s going to ample instability in place for areas that miss the rain this morning which was my main concern going in. I’m debating going out to chase later if it develops how I think.

[JTA66]

The radar certainly looks more robust than what the NAM and HRRR were suggesting. What that means going forward, your guess is as good as mine.

More thunder as another storm approaches from the west.

[RedSky]

Everything went around me lol

.20" even better this morning activity is likely going to hamper the next round in the afternoon it looks 50/50 at best

A miss will be quite terrible

 

[RedSky]

2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

In addition to nearly three-quarters of an inch of much-needed rainfall, the thunderstorm also scrubbed weeks of smoke, dust, and other airborne particles from the atmosphere. The rain washed these fine particles onto the landscape while lightning naturally converted atmospheric nitrogen into plant-available forms that were carried into the soil. Although the amount of natural nitrogen is modest compared to commercial fertilizer, every pound helps during a critical stage of crop development. Just as important, the cleaner air and washed foliage allow crops to capture more sunlight, improving photosynthesis and helping fields recover from weeks of drought stress.

Look at radar history 80% of upper bucks and the Lehigh Valley was grazed in round 1

 

 

[enpawx_observer]

IIRC, wasn't the system that produce the late July outbreak in 2021 similar? I remember that day being really cloudy. But I think shear was rippin and there was just enough instability to produce.

[ChescoWx]

Below is the first time I have used AI (Claude) to help analyze the Chester County Data set with data from 1893 to Present. Below is the average number of 90+ days by station and month. Including the years of record and the overall annual average. It did this correctly! see below.

[The Iceman]

Sounds like a tornado watch is incoming… pretty strong wordage in the Mesoscale discussion:

 

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating of a very moist air mass is ongoing across the discussion area as of 1645z, contributing to moderate/pockets of strong surface-based instability. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage across the higher terrain, and along a north-south confluence zone across southern PA south into northern VA, during the next few hours. As coverage continues to increase and low-level lapse rates steepen, the potential for damaging gusts will increase across the discussion area this afternoon and early evening. Additionally, low-level shear will remain locally enhanced in the vicinity of a warm front across southeast PA/southern NJ. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell structures, and the risk for tornadoes, potentially strong, will be maximized in this area.

[The Iceman]

38 minutes ago, enpawx_observer said:

IIRC, wasn't the system that produce the late July outbreak in 2021 similar? I remember that day being really cloudy. But I think shear was rippin and there was just enough instability to produce.

Yes, that was also a very messy convective day in the morning but it didn’t matter because the deep layer shear was in place. Very similar set up. 

[JTA66]

42 minutes ago, enpawx_observer said:

IIRC, wasn't the system that produce the late July outbreak in 2021 similar? I remember that day being really cloudy. But I think shear was rippin and there was just enough instability to produce.

I don’t remember the year, but recall the event you’re referring to. Despite being socked in much of that day, it really didn’t matter.

Just passed 0.50” in the bucket for the day.

[LVblizzard]

I’m liking Harrisburg to Lancaster to Philly for the best tornado potential today just based on where the warm front appears to be setting up.

[Psychguy]

Tornado watch just issued.

[LVblizzard]

Sun is starting to peek out in Lehigh County. A little quicker than I expected. Hopefully that little blob of rain out near Harrisburg either fizzles or passes to the south so the atmosphere can continue to destabilize.

[Newman]

You can find the warm front pretty clearly on the latest 18z SBCAPE mesoanalysis. Surface obs are also evident... middle 80s in York, southern Lanco, Philly right now, but low to middle 70s still across the rest of SE PA. I do think this warm front will continue to lift northward but I don't have much confidence in how much in the next 3-4 hours. Some of that messy cloud debris near Harrisburg appears to be thinning out as it slides eastward, and we're getting more sunshine across the Lehigh Valley... All of that to say I think the Trenton/KOP/Philly area will maximize instability and low-level shear just south of the warm front. We shall see...