E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion

[PhiEaglesfan712]

With Memorial Day in the rearview mirror, it's now time to start the summer thread.

We have a developing strong/super el nino. Such summers are known for producing cooler than normal summers in the Eastern US. Such years include 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023.

[The Iceman]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

With Memorial Day in the rearview mirror, it's now time to start the summer thread.

We have a developing strong/super el nino. Such summers are known for producing cooler than normal summers in the Eastern US. Such years include 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023.

I don't like to look ahead further than 15-20 days but first half of the month is looking normal maybe slightly below? Unfortunately looks dry as well so even though we got a brief respite from drought conditions. The nino precip anomalies are much more pronounced in the fall and winter months, it could be a few months before the drought truly breaks. 

[ChescoWx]

As we get into the summer months lower elevation (<450 ft asl) areas of Chester County PA will see at least one heat wave (defined as 3 or more consecutive days with highs at 90 degrees or above) while the relatively higher ridge locations (>600 ft asl) only average a heat wave every couple of years or so. Below sorted by highest to lowest elevation is a ranking of all reporting stations since 2000 with their recorded heat waves. Our lowest elevation spot at Phoenixville averages a whopping two to four times the number of heat waves as almost all other locations across the county.

[ChescoWx]

Even the longest running and warmest station in Chester County at Phoenixville has a clear trend toward less of the so called "heat waves" 

[The Iceman]

Looking like a lock that most area's receive < 1" precip from now through mid month. Best shot of any precip comes sunday but the timing is looking poor. Maybe some showers but not the best set up for convection despite the frontal passage. After that looks like another week of bone dry. 

[JTA66]

No real surprise seeing the models dry up for tonight. Dry begets dry.

87F/DP 66F

[LVblizzard]

Well they just upgraded SE PA to an enhanced risk. 45% wind with a CIG1 hatched area. Radar out west looks pretty juicy…maybe we can get a good show later?

[JTA66]

26 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Well they just upgraded SE PA to an enhanced risk. 45% wind with a CIG1 hatched area. Radar out west looks pretty juicy…maybe we can get a good show later?

I just noticed that. And the 18z NAM came in robust looking.

[mattinpa]

How bad is that line? Going to be hit with it soon it appears. Severe thunderstorm warning. 

[Newman]

Allentown gusted to 50 mph with this line moving through, Mount Pocono 54 mph, Lancaster 47 mph, Reading 47 mph 

[JTA66]

Also seems the storms are moving through sooner than expected. Yesterday this was looking like a post-10:00pm threat.

[Birds~69]

Stuff...

[JTA66]

Dark as night, hearing thunder, first drops are here, temp down to 72F.

[JTA66]

M’eh, junk and stuff kinda fizzled from a severe perspective, but I am getting a decent downpour.

[Birds~69]

Show's over, drive home safely. Looked better a little while ago...

[mattinpa]

33 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

M’eh, junk and stuff kinda fizzled from a severe perspective, but I am getting a decent downpour.

Same here, wind was a bit wicked at first but quick and not a lot of rain where I am.

[LVLion77]

I received 0.44“ from the line. Not enough, but certainly better than nothing.

[Albedoman]

19 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

I received 0.44“ from the line. Not enough, but certainly better than nothing.

i got .57 inch. It was badly needed. I feel for the farmers. I was hoping for at least 1" in the next week or so but I just do not see it.  At least the grass will stay green for an extra two weeks.  The base flows in the Little Lehigh are at record lows right now as none of this rain got past the topsoil horizon. I see drought emergencies coming in the next month for some areas.

[JTA66]

About 0.40”. Wasn’t really expecting anything, so this was a pleasant surprise.

66F

[LVLion77]

i got .57 inch. It was badly needed. I feel for the farmers. I was hoping for at least 1" in the next week or so but I just do not see it.  At least the grass will stay green for an extra two weeks.  The base flows in the Little Lehigh are at record lows right now as none of this rain got past the topsoil horizon. I see drought emergencies coming in the next month for some areas.

Yep it is very dry. Hopefully the tstorms on Thursday and Friday overperform and then we may be in a wetter pattern the following week.