E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion

[PhiEaglesfan712]

With Memorial Day in the rearview mirror, it's now time to start the summer thread.

We have a developing strong/super el nino. Such summers are known for producing cooler than normal summers in the Eastern US. Such years include 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023.

[The Iceman]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

With Memorial Day in the rearview mirror, it's now time to start the summer thread.

We have a developing strong/super el nino. Such summers are known for producing cooler than normal summers in the Eastern US. Such years include 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023.

I don't like to look ahead further than 15-20 days but first half of the month is looking normal maybe slightly below? Unfortunately looks dry as well so even though we got a brief respite from drought conditions. The nino precip anomalies are much more pronounced in the fall and winter months, it could be a few months before the drought truly breaks. 

[ChescoWx]

As we get into the summer months lower elevation (<450 ft asl) areas of Chester County PA will see at least one heat wave (defined as 3 or more consecutive days with highs at 90 degrees or above) while the relatively higher ridge locations (>600 ft asl) only average a heat wave every couple of years or so. Below sorted by highest to lowest elevation is a ranking of all reporting stations since 2000 with their recorded heat waves. Our lowest elevation spot at Phoenixville averages a whopping two to four times the number of heat waves as almost all other locations across the county.

[ChescoWx]

Even the longest running and warmest station in Chester County at Phoenixville has a clear trend toward less of the so called "heat waves" 

[The Iceman]

Looking like a lock that most area's receive < 1" precip from now through mid month. Best shot of any precip comes sunday but the timing is looking poor. Maybe some showers but not the best set up for convection despite the frontal passage. After that looks like another week of bone dry.