frd Posted Tuesday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:46 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Tuesday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:46 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Tuesday at 09:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:08 PM 21 minutes ago, frd said: Yeah niños aren’t kind to hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Tuesday at 09:28 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 09:28 PM 41 minutes ago, frd said: Hope everyone got their snow fix last year. That's a black dog look for 2026-2027. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Tuesday at 09:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:30 PM 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hope everyone got their snow fix last year. That's a black dog look for 2026-2027. How bad we talking? 22-23? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Tuesday at 09:32 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 09:32 PM 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: How bad we talking? 22-23? If it's a strong, basin wide El Nino then I mentally prepare for 1998 or 2022-23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Tuesday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:34 PM Just now, Eskimo Joe said: If it's a strong, basin wide El Nino then I mentally prepare for 1998 or 2022-23. I know better than to announce last rites in May, but at what point would the look of winter be more or less revealed? Would we know by September wether or not it’ll be a dud or will it be like the last 2 winters where the outlook abruptly shifts around Halloween? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Tuesday at 09:53 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 09:53 PM 18 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I know better than to announce last rites in May, but at what point would the look of winter be more or less revealed? Would we know by September wether or not it’ll be a dud or will it be like the last 2 winters where the outlook abruptly shifts around Halloween? If it's a raging, basin wide El Nino in September, then it's time to just put the coffin in the ground IMO. We might get lucky with a 2016 like fluke, but I wouldn't bet money on it happening twice in a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Tuesday at 10:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:05 PM We may have a Nino failure if the PDO stays negative................................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Tuesday at 11:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:40 PM 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: If it's a strong, basin wide El Nino then I mentally prepare for 1998 or 2022-23. Would the mountains in WV get crushed with the storm track or is it even warm at 4000ft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:45 PM El Nino is trending on the X. Lots of posts like this. We are doomed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:52 PM 14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Would the mountains in WV get crushed with the storm track or is it even warm at 4000ft? If we get a period of HL blocking, in a strong Nino a big winter storm is still possible-even the lowlands. So ofc the western highlands could get 'crushed'. They typically get impressive snow regardless of the overall pattern, unless cold air ingress from Canada is completely shut off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 hour ago, CAPE said: If we get a period of HL blocking, in a strong Nino a big winter storm is still possible-even the lowlands. So ofc the western highlands could get 'crushed'. They typically get impressive snow regardless of the overall pattern, unless cold air ingress from Canada is completely shut off. I mean in 22-23 the entire eastern seaboard got shafted and if the niño version of that is the setup we get... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago I’m pretty sure my lawn will be super-green next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago WB 18Z EPS. Rain still possible on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 25 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EPS. Rain still possible on Monday. It popped up less than a week out unlike the more recent rug pulls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 14 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Would the mountains in WV get crushed with the storm track or is it even warm at 4000ft? There will be less upslope, so the mountains can't rack up impressive totals 1-2" at a time as they have done the past 2 years. OTOH, those perfect track 35* rainstorms for the cities will be 28* paste bombs in the highlands. And no, those really haven't happened at all this decade outside of a few noteworthy early / late season events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 hour ago, Paleocene said: It's rare that Baltimore scores while DC is in the screw zone. Though it's not much of a screw over here, it's Central VA that's getting shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 17 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: If it's a strong, basin wide El Nino then I mentally prepare for 1998 or 2022-23. Totally different winter patterns. My average is 24" snowfall. In 1998, I received 33 inches. In 22-23, I received 1.50". There is more to a winter than the ENSO pattern and west or east based and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 hours ago, stormy said: Totally different winter patterns. My average is 24" snowfall. In 1998, I received 33 inches. In 22-23, I received 1.50". There is more to a winter than the ENSO pattern and west or east based and strength. You have elevation on your side though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The 18z NAM 12 says the zonal flow cuts off moisture from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 hours ago, RIC_WX said: There will be less upslope, so the mountains can't rack up impressive totals 1-2" at a time as they have done the past 2 years. OTOH, those perfect track 35* rainstorms for the cities will be 28* paste bombs in the highlands. And no, those really haven't happened at all this decade outside of a few noteworthy early / late season events. Anyone want to take a guess at how this El Nino will effect the Tug Hill region in upstate NY? That's where I'll be all winter. I'm sure it will be better then the lowlands lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 52 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: You have elevation on your side though. You are exactly right.................... My 1300 ft elevation makes a differennce, but very close 3,000nelevation makes a real difference. I will take a +2500 Nino over a minus -.75 Nina any day of the week............................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 19 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m pretty sure my lawn will be super-green next winter. After mine burns to hell this summer I will reseed in November and by early January it should be looking pretty lush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 6 minutes ago, stormy said: You are exactly right.................... My 1300 ft elevation makes a differennce, but very close 3,000nelevation makes a real difference. I will take a +2500 Nino over a minus -.75 Nina any day of the week............................... One is often better than many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 36 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Anyone want to take a guess at how this El Nino will effect the Tug Hill region in upstate NY? That's where I'll be all winter. I'm sure it will be better then the lowlands lol Up there the ENSO state doesn't matter so much. It snows regardless. Down at our latitude in the low elevation areas we need around a hundred elements to come together at precisely the right time for it to snow. And some cows have to fart or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago WB 18Z EURO...sigh...latest runs take Saturday's moisture mostly north and Monday's shortwave south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago WB latest Euro weeklies: May 20-June 20 hopefully some precip. chances with near normal temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 13 minutes ago Share Posted 13 minutes ago 24 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO...sigh...latest runs take Saturday's moisture mostly north and Monday's shortwave south. Still plenty of time to reel monday in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now