May 2026 Medium / Long Range

[frd]

[frd]

[JenkinsJinkies]

21 minutes ago, frd said:

Yeah niños aren’t kind to hurricanes.

[Eskimo Joe]

41 minutes ago, frd said:

Hope everyone got their snow fix last year. That's a black dog look for 2026-2027.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hope everyone got their snow fix last year. That's a black dog look for 2026-2027.

How bad we talking? 22-23?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

How bad we talking? 22-23?

If it's a strong, basin wide El Nino then I mentally prepare for 1998 or 2022-23.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

If it's a strong, basin wide El Nino then I mentally prepare for 1998 or 2022-23.

I know better than to announce last rites in May, but at what point would the look of winter be more or less revealed? Would we know by September wether or not it’ll be a dud or will it be like the last 2 winters where the outlook abruptly shifts around Halloween?

[Eskimo Joe]

18 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I know better than to announce last rites in May, but at what point would the look of winter be more or less revealed? Would we know by September wether or not it’ll be a dud or will it be like the last 2 winters where the outlook abruptly shifts around Halloween?

If it's a raging, basin wide El Nino in September, then it's time to just put the coffin in the ground IMO. We might get lucky with a 2016 like fluke, but I wouldn't bet money on it happening twice in a decade.

[stormy]

We may have a Nino failure if the PDO stays negative................................

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If it's a strong, basin wide El Nino then I mentally prepare for 1998 or 2022-23.

Would the mountains in WV get crushed with the storm track or is it even warm at 4000ft?

[CAPE]

El Nino is trending on the X. Lots of posts like this. We are doomed!! 

 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Would the mountains in WV get crushed with the storm track or is it even warm at 4000ft?

If we get a period of HL blocking,  in a strong Nino a big winter storm is still possible-even the lowlands. So ofc the western highlands could get 'crushed'. They typically get impressive snow regardless of the overall pattern, unless cold air ingress from Canada is completely shut off.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

If we get a period of HL blocking,  in a strong Nino a big winter storm is still possible-even the lowlands. So ofc the western highlands could get 'crushed'. They typically get impressive snow regardless of the overall pattern, unless cold air ingress from Canada is completely shut off.

I mean in 22-23 the entire eastern seaboard got shafted and if the niño version of that is the setup we get...

[nw baltimore wx]

I’m pretty sure my lawn will be super-green next winter.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS.  Rain still possible on Monday.

[JenkinsJinkies]

25 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS.  Rain still possible on Monday.

It popped up less than a week out unlike the more recent rug pulls.