May 2026 Medium / Long Range

[Eskimo Joe]

April is just about in the books, so we turn our attention to May flowers and the prospects of thunderstorms. CPC says cool and wet may be in order first.

[87storms]

On 4/28/2026 at 4:41 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

April is just about in the books, so we turn our attention to May flowers and the prospects of thunderstorms. CPC says cool and wet may be in order first.

Cool in May > cool in March. I’ll prob be ok with these temps. I just hope we don’t get stuck with a meandering cutoff low, unless it’s the kind that brings humid weather and afternoon tstorms.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS total precip. mean for Wed. night through early Saturday.

[Weather Will]

WB 5/1 Canadian Jan-March.  Looks wet with cold air around.

[stormy]

Lift from the advancing front produces sprinkles to our west.

Saturday rainfall footprint along the East Coast is a preview to DJF 26/27   El Nino pattern.......................  Probably......................

[Weather Will]

WB 21Z NBM for upcoming late week rain chances.  Most of this rain falls next Wed.-Th. Period.

[Paleocene]

4 hours ago, 87storms said:

Cool in May > cool in March. I’ll prob be ok with these temps. I just hope we don’t get stuck with a meandering cutoff low, unless it’s the kind that brings humid weather and afternoon tstorms.

Those meandering cutoffs are the bane of my may-june existence around here. This time of year I want SUN

[Maestrobjwa]

Maaan I don't like where the discussion on the niño is headed in the other thread...sounds like the current thinking is very strong and east-based! Hope that ain't true...or else I'll have to start a "there's no way..." thread for the entire winter, lol

[CAPE]

10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Maaan I don't like where the discussion on the niño is headed in the other thread...sounds like the current thinking is very strong and east-based! Hope that ain't true...or else I'll have to start a "there's no way..." thread for the entire winter, lol

Plenty of speculation, but its too early to know the character and strength of the event. Latest ENSO update from CPC indicates equal chances for very strong, strong or moderate El Nino for the upcoming winter.

[Benjamn3]

Last El Niño we had fuckin sucked. So who knows if it even matters anymore. 

[87storms]

14 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Those meandering cutoffs are the bane of my may-june existence around here. This time of year I want SUN

Yep, and if that marine layer ramps up it can take days to scour out.

[CAPE]

51 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Last El Niño we had fuckin sucked. So who knows if it even matters anymore. 

Not enough cold, especially recently, but we will get the STJ and moisture. 'Perfect track rainstorms'. Need a -AO or -EPO to bring colder air southward. Recent Ninas have been cold mainly due to a favorable configuration(poleward) of the Aleutian ridge.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO Wed./Th. As duly noted in NWS discussion, big shift south with low pressure compared to yesterday.

 

[CAPE]

We are still in the mode of always missing the bigtime rain.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 hours ago, CAPE said:

Plenty of speculation, but its too early to know the character and strength of the event. Latest ENSO update from CPC indicates equal chances for very strong, strong or moderate El Nino for the upcoming winter.

Daily ONI is already passing +1.0c in Nino 3.4 and subsurface is warmest ever only below 1997, normal 65F areas on the thermocline are 80F right now. It's going to at least go Strong. SOI is the biggest counter-indicator.. it hasn't had more than a few very negative days. 

[SnowenOutThere]

NGL if the models still support some snow falling in WV I'll be taking a nice hike out there

[Eskimo Joe]

17 hours ago, CAPE said:

We are still in the mode of always missing the bigtime rain.

I would welcome a statewide 1" -1.5" and call it a day. We need several events where the soil profile has the opportunity to slowly rehydrate, not some big event where we get several months of rain in a couple of hours.

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I would welcome a statewide 1" -1.5" and call it a day. We need several events where the soil profile has the opportunity to slowly rehydrate, not some big event where we get several months of rain in a couple of hours.

It has improved since my initial post(when you copy and paste it updates).