Boston-winter08 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 12z GFS coming in a bit colder compared to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just got back to West Hartford. Working 3-7pm tonight for a live shot and then 2:30 a.m.-Noon tomorrow. Planning on maybe an hour or two nap around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well, I made a couple of posts refuting that stance and I think John did too, but someone probably should have taken the initiative to dedicate a thread to clearing that up...agreed. I was referring to NCEP mainly, IE would have saved a lot of heartache two days ago when they said ignore the snow hit. I get what you're saying about starting another thread. When Don put up those stats well more than a week ago we had no idea how this would play out. It's an important point John made that only demostrates there are exceptions to every rule, every analog and every pattern. That said I doubt when the Euro was a total whiff many would have stood up to defend the possibility of a major east coast hit. Largely I think Don's point was about the M/A and and I think all along he indicated the further north you went the less of a problem it was. For a vast majority of the mid atlantic this was a non-event. Diamond Shoals down to 994ish. Strong northerly winds. SPC analysis would have it running east of there by maybe 25 miles. RE the RUC, no field day. It's terrible with EC storms. Sometimes it's decent with dry slots. It burns us all the time on 8h and precip fields. Once in a blue moon it's decent. GFS is east with everything through 15. May not play out later that way but at 5h it's pointing more NE with the critical S/W. Looks like it made one last jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The bigger issue isn't the wind as the "frequent gusts over 35" requirement is subjective, but the visibility at or below 1/4 mile for three straight hours. It's tough to keep the visibility that low for 3 straight hours. That makes sense I suppose. I would think we could come close to the 1/4 mi visibility or below though, but we'll see where the heavies tof the heaviest snow sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS east of the Cape now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Kevin... I have 12-18" statewide... 10-15" southeast CT. Someone maybe gets into a 16-24" band? I really like CT for this one... looks AWESOME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Kevin... I have 12-18" statewide... 10-15" southeast CT. Someone maybe gets into a 16-24" band? I really like CT for this one... looks AWESOME! Yeah that band will be key. Good luck!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You have to appreciate the warnings map on NOAA. It's just epic I thought this was interesting. This is the GGEM 144 hour forecast for this storm. It's pretty close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS east of the Cape now. I'm hoping this may be a last minute trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Kevin... I have 12-18" statewide... 10-15" southeast CT. Someone maybe gets into a 16-24" band? I really like CT for this one... looks AWESOME! Ground zero for this one!! Fantastic news on this vomit filled day in Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 zoomed in QPF off the NAM 12km... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 12z GFS coming in a bit colder compared to 06z And east. It really trimmed the QPF to some extent yet again on the western side versus the 0z and 6. It continues to do that each run. Really wants to set the major banding around just SE of NYC but then it kind of collapses as the main show shifts to bob/weathafella/scott/ray. I don't know, maybe it's right, would be a very limited period of damage through the first phase of the storm all the way to the canal IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 That makes sense I suppose. I would think we could come close to the 1/4 mi visibility or below though, but we'll see where the heavies tof the heaviest snow sets up. Yeah the problem is as soon as the snow let's up even a little bit, the visibility pops up to 1/2 or 3/4 mile. It'll be interesting to see how many of the zones actually verify a blizzard. I say maybe half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 For best banding and frontogenesis looks to me like it's HVN to ORH. SFC low track is awesome to near MTP and then scooting ENE south of SNE. Perfect for a pivot point over central CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS east of the Cape now. i'm opening and closing my freezer as much as possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 For best banding and frontogenesis looks to me like it's HVN to ORH. SFC low track is awesome to near MTP and then scooting ENE south of SNE. Perfect for a pivot point over central CT? :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS east of the Cape now. Yeah GFS def went E...definitely a better solution for the areas on the cusp of mixing issues. That run destroys BOS too with a little jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 i'm opening and closing my freezer as much as possible... Low level CAD signature in Phil's Kitchen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 12z GFS is um, spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS not looking too good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 And east. It really trimmed the QPF to some extent yet again on the western side versus the 0z and 6. It continues to do that each run. Really wants to set the major banding around just SE of NYC but then it kind of collapses as the main show shifts to bob/weathafella/scott/ray. I don't know, maybe it's right, would be a very limited period of damage through the first phase of the storm all the way to the canal IMO It also gives NYC only about 1-1.25".. Based on the current radar, I can't really see that happening... they are going to get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptspvd Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Nice band heading into Southern RI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 DId DT issue a final call map that anyone saw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 12z GFS is um, spectacular. GFS not looking too good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS not looking too good... wouldn't worry about it, it's now cast time plus every other model looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It also gives NYC only about 1-1.25".. Based on the current radar, I can't really see that happening... they are going to get slammed. Yeah radar really looks good for NYC. I'm not worried about a small cutback on the GFS there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 For best banding and frontogenesis looks to me like it's HVN to ORH. SFC low track is awesome to near MTP and then scooting ENE south of SNE. Perfect for a pivot point over central CT? Yeah we may see a band pivot near there. As long as the H7 low is south of me and I have some sort of se or e flow..I should be ok I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RICoastalMan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS not looking too good... not for those of us in sne worried about mixing, though I am far enough west that it shouldn't be too bad anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS not looking too good... I'll ride the NAM then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm hoping this may be a last minute trend. There's nothing about it that was last minute. It went east almost every run and look at that last devastating QPF hit out west/nw. The pivot point shifted again and now it's so early it is an absolute blizzard for you. I'm in the game still need one more shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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