April 2026 Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z RDPS for Wed. And not done yet....

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS for mid week and the EURO.

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS for mid week and the EURO.

After this recent debacle, I will believe it when I see it. I have the sprinkler running after the forecasted inch of rain ended up less than a tenth.

[frd]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

After this recent debacle, I will believe it when I see it. I have the sprinkler running after the forecasted inch of rain ended up less than a tenth.

Rainfall total forecasting just as bad as snowfall forecasting in the winter.  

Can't complain too much here with .43 last 24 hours.  WPC did better than Mount Holly with QPF forecasts. 
 

 

[IronTy]

Pretty much sums up the Nina precip pattern. 

[frd]

Mount Holly AFD  

 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional chances for much-needed rain arrive
during the middle of this week.

A brief period of high pressure on Monday, potentially lingering
into Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary then approaches the
region late Tuesday, bringing a chance for light rain. The
chances for meaningful rainfall with this system appear to be
decreasing with high pressure staying close by and the frontal
boundary largely washing out across the region. Another
stronger low is still expected to arrive late Wednesday into
early Thursday that is expected to bring more widespread
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the region.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Rainfall total forecasting just as bad as snowfall forecasting in the winter.  

Can't complain too much here with .43 last 24 hours.  WPC did better than Mount Holly with QPF forecasts. 
 

 

They should acknowledge their forecast bust. It was certainly noteworthy.

[nw baltimore wx]

Could be a blip but 18z gfs looks better midweek for many. I don’t know anything about the RDPS but the gfs kind of has the same look of what Will posted earlier

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS is wetter this run compared to 12Z; mid week watch continues.

 

 

 

 

[TriPol]

Yikes. Hope this doesn't pan out.

[Weather Will]

Models that are wetter for midweek are showing a quicker northern and southern phase. We know how that normally plays out in winter for us but we will know in a few days....

Compare the dry WB 18Z 12K NAM to the much wetter 18Z EURO,

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO for mid week.

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Models that are wetter for midweek are showing a quicker northern and southern phase. We know how that normally plays out in winter for us but we will know in a few days....

Compare the dry WB 18Z 12K NAM to the much wetter 18Z EURO,

 

 

Is this like comparing sugar to shit?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Man, I don't want a cool May. It's also our most cloudy month of the year, so below average also means more clouds

 

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Is this like comparing sugar to shit?

The "worst" in this case driest model is usually correct in the mid Atlantic..

Anyone know when the NAM will finally be put to bed?