Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s also a solid signal for a few warmer days next week . Couple days of 70 again ahead of the next front . There’s always doom and gloom posts but then you get a bunch of decent to very good days mixed in 

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s also a solid signal for a few warmer days next week . Couple days of 70 again ahead of the next front . There’s always doom and gloom posts but then you get a bunch of decent to very good days mixed in 

yep acatt way overblown with those death sentence calls and charts last week

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

yep acatt way overblown with those death sentence calls and charts last week

Not a great or warm AN pattern by any means but as long as sun comes out it’s warm inland 

[CoastalWx]

Pattern blows. Getting 70 in may is meh. Constant troughing with shit settling in later this week. 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully things shift by mid May.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully things shift by mid May.

Losing May is like losing December in the winter.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Today is a stunner though. Went into work late so I could sit in the sun with my coffee and listen to the birds.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pattern blows. Getting 70 in may is meh. Constant troughing with shit settling in later this week. 

You need to suffer another 15 years of it and then you'll be as iron-hulled to it as the ships Labrador never claimed.  You'll limp into port every spring surviving by the notion that 70 in May is actually a motherfucking bargain and you'll be happy.  ha! 

If it is 70 and with more sun than cloud days ...?  Shiiiii     I'm calling that a relative win and a day. 

But yeah.. looks like in 2 weeks when the April/NASA numbers are out, the graph will again register that whether we are above normal for April or not, we will in comparison to everywhere else, be below ... every where else.   Since October, 2025 we've be winning that distinction, save for one or two weak argument months. 

Altho... heh at any time NASA may cease to exist because of the creepy "operation silence the consilience" going on.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully things shift by mid May.

Mother's day was always the hope. Looks like some are still trying to put lipstick on the pig, even though the models have been consistent about this for about 2 weeks now. 

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

squarely above normal in a below normal pattern ?       

If there's more sun than cloud in late April, the max will probably be AN at least 90% of the time.
Last 2 days' max here averaged 61, which is 4° AN.  The minima averaged 26, or 6° BN.  The sun is mid-August strong.

[Damage In Tolland]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully things shift by mid May.

Are you all leaf out all trees?

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Warmest day in weeks today?

Well, since the 90 degree day a week and a half ago. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

If there's more sun than cloud in late April, the max will probably be AN at least 90% of the time.
Last 2 days' max here averaged 61, which is 4° AN.  The minima averaged 26, or 6° BN.  The sun is mid-August strong.

There's an interesting techy aspect that Brian and I have monitored over the years having to do with machine/MOS numbers never seemingly able to catch up to the seasonal movement toward heat in springs.

This effect doesn't appear to be as such in autumn when going colder. 

It has to do with MOS numbers being too low on days when the sun is very strong. 

MOS has a 'memory' so to speak.  That memory is Climatology.   It's complex though...  MEX, for example, has small climate enhancing of the immediate day's values... which growns in weighting out in time. Such that D5 of that string has a ton.   That is why when we look at D5 and it may say 80 for high temperature, when the climate on that day is say 60 ... that means you have a signal that must be extreme coming from the contributing model input.  Because it is not only 20 points over the climate, the climate is supposed to be weighting the values from the metrically deduced numbers.  That is why once in coon's age you get that 96 in April ... the MEX number on that day 5 might have been 20 points over.  

So MET and MAV being short term, in theory the climate weight is lower ...but it is not zero, either.  It's hard to guess how much the MOS for D1 and D2 are being effected by climate weighting, but it could be the reason why these days will tend to be a degree or two colder than what actually takes place.   It suspiciously seems like Climate Change might be part of the culprit.  

The other complication is how much so...  I believe the climate in those MOS products are based on 30 year means.  But those are not "running averages" ... so if the climate is improving steeply in 30 years and it is not running... and suppose the MOS day's climate weight is based up 27 year old means, then the weighting could be introducing larger error.

As such ...I "think" the recent 30 year adjustment went in over the last 5 years...so we're at the earlier end, and we are definitely in a steep CC predicament.    That said, the D1 and D2 are at the lower weighted end so makes the crushingly nerdy fetish of Asperger temperature watching like those idiots out there along the train track. It's a 4 line that runs 100 feet from my front door. They set up tripods and film freight trains going by.  What the f is up with that! 

I think it's called 'train spotting' or ... ?  who cares I don't care to look it up.  I hate the f'n train. It's loud and disruptive.  It vibrates the house on minutes after minutes worth of sometimes several times per day. They couple up and decouple half mile long screaching screaming steel on steel ending in something louder than lightning bolt 100 feet away bangs.  1.5 million metric tons of 'em, between 1 and 4 am. They've taken to parking long lines of shipping container cars, double stacked, that are holding garbage - literally garbage! And after they've sat parked under summer sun in 97 F heat ... stink of rotting vomit so vile as to challenge the very endurance of man ... they're doing a swell job at ruining life for myself, my neighbors.. the neighborhood.  It's gotta be lowering property values... I mean Jesus H Christ - or lack thereof.. We've complained to the town, who's clearly getting a kick back form CGI ... otherwise we might apply for a Federal injunction of some kind.  To me, it doesn't matter if the latter owns the rail.  It's should be no different than house that puts on loud music on and disturbs the surrounding peace.  That's not allowed!?  why should corporate kuntitude be able to dump society's anal content 100 feet from our f'n front doors and walk away.

So, along comes these train dweebles to appreciate fuckin' trains?  Okay.

[Typhoon Tip]

33 diurnal change before noon.   That may be close to 3.5 hour record already.  

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

33 diurnal change before noon.   That may be close to 3.5 hour record already.  

pretty crazy...went from a chill with the heat kicking on a few hours ago to about ready to open windows  

[CoastalWx]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you all leaf out all trees?

Yeah the palms are out where I am now.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah the palms are out where I am now.

Oh I thought you were back . I’d bet your Oaks are close. 
 

About 10-14 days early here this year. That week of 85-90 made all the difference 

[dendrite]

67° SKC

[dendrite]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

33 diurnal change before noon.   That may be close to 3.5 hour record already.  

ASOS era, spring highest, 3hr rises for FIT

[SouthCoastMA]

53° feels like 65, given how many days we've had in the 40's this month

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Pattern blows. Getting 70 in may is meh. Constant troughing with shit settling in later this week. 

isn't that the average high for your area in the first half of May?  I don't think we're much higher here...I'll take 70 and sun any day in May

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

isn't that the average high for your area in the first half of May?  I don't think we're much higher here...I'll take 70 and sun any day in May

Average is generally low-mid 60's in early May

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

isn't that the average high for your area in the first half of May?  I don't think we're much higher here...I'll take 70 and sun any day in May

Or any day, period. 

[WinterWolf]

Pushing 70 now…absolutely prefect out there.  

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh I thought you were back . I’d bet your Oaks are close. 
 

About 10-14 days early here this year. That week of 85-90 made all the difference 

Lolz. A day or two maybe. 

https://www.usanpn.org/data/maps/spring

 

[Torch Tiger]

remember these? 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Lolz. A day or two maybe. 

https://www.usanpn.org/data/maps/spring

 

Early to Mayorch 10 or so is normal here for Oaks . They leafed out early last week 

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

remember these? 

Looked on point except for two days. Good forecast .