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Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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dendrite
dendrite

Bro calm down. They’ll have more boston cream tomorrow.  

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

Somewhere on Wachusett today 

Supernovice
Supernovice

for those of us with a jet stream fetish…might make it supersonic lol

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WalpoleJoe

WalpoleJoe

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BrianW said:

Someone needs to fire it up. Already mowed 3 times this year and lawn looks spectacular. 

Before somone comments about chemicals/fertilizer. All I use for fertilizer is purely organics lawn fertilizer from New Hampshire that is made with waste brewery grains. I spot spray weeds with tenacity an all natural weed killer. 

Screenshot_20260407_175540_Gallery.thumb.jpg.e06b0328717183c72f9ae57322aebffb.jpg

Tenacity is great stuff.....I don't use the weed stuff anymore, either....tenacity takes care of it.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Brian's rage would know no bounds should this be the status at 21z this next Tuesday afternoon.   Or PF! haha.  Nothing like an 82, Metrowest of Boston, while it's a warm cloth to the balls 38 in N VT

image.png.d3f85f26e3ac7ab87b9bc002d0a0d57e.png

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted 
 KFIT   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/08/2026  0000 UTC                       
 WED  08| THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| CLIMO  33 55
 X/N  48| 24  59| 35  66| 44  60| 32  60| 44  70| 55  75|

Heh, nothing like being 20 points above climo at both ends of the diurnal range, at 6 days lead time in a MOS product that is pretty heavily weighted toward climatology at that range ... 

I do think next week is kind of 'first test' for this summer - personally - because I feel this year's season has a shot at some historic heat.  The reason primarily being the pan-dimensional dry antecedent continent, with lower persisting soil moisture anomalies, right as we are about to jump into the highest sun angles of the year.  Keep in mind, we are less than 1 month from solar max entry... on or about May 6.  We just need to shed the 90/60 polar vortex and things can turn around and catch civility off-guard.  We still live in a CC-enraged synergistic heat event planetary system and that's not going away...

This seems to be a good candidate year to test if we send the mercury into over-achieving warm results, both relative to pattern... but relative to "when it gets hot".  Again, we need to get the patterns ...so we'll see.  In the meantime, this next Tues/Wed, if that boundary does hull up NW and leaves our region soaked in WSW flow of dry kinetically charged air mass, that's an opportunity to over perform.  Being 20 over climo weighting at D6 isn't trivial

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

I suppose if you have 6 days to know it's coming by the time it does, meh.  

When it comes to na na na-na scaling ( haha ), in order of irate the least is that one. 

3  is knowing for days your fucked.  Oh k... gradual acceptance.

2  is surprisingly BD's ... you'd think they'd be #1 but no...  Usually you have some inkling that a BD is possible.  Also, knowing it's BD time of year ...

1   is when it is warm for days in the charts.  Plans are made.  Then, the models pull the rug at that sweet 36 hours ahead deliberate look.   This rendition is the most annoying.   To help qualify this .. imagine a historic blizzard, not like that isolated SE Mass job last Feb... I mean interior VA to Maine, in 2-3 feet of snow, with a stall off Montauk Point across 2 cycles of Lunar tides, for 5 days of guidance.  Nat Guard is on call... APs are preemptively canceling flights.  General states panic as ems light up FEMA web-site graphic.  General state of dopa O.D. awe

--> 36 hours out that first model run with nothing.  umm

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just get through tomorrow morning and the last vestiges of winter will be behind us.

image.png

As an aside, today and tomorrow both should bust MOS like 1-3 F I think.

It's not a huge or even noticeable thing.  Not 'busts' per se.  Just that we are Sep 3 sun equiv, with just about as unadulterated solar as is physically doable on this planet, with the possible exception of say 1,000 miles out amidst the Sahara ...  I doubt these machine numbers have the lowest 500 feet of explosive super adiabats locked down.

It's a fetish of mine to test MOS in April and May

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Today and tomorrow both should bust MOS like 1-3 F I think.

It's not a huge or even noticeable thing.  Not 'busts' per se.  Just that we are Sep 3 sun equiv, with just about as unadulterated solar as is physically doable on this planet, with the exception of 1,000 miles out amidst the Sahara ...  I doubt these machine numbers have the lowest 500 feet of explosive super adiabats locked down.

It's a fetish of mine to test MOS in April and May

:weenie:  :weenie:

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As an aside, today and tomorrow both should bust MOS like 1-3 F I think.

It's not a huge or even noticeable thing.  Not 'busts' per se.  Just that we are Sep 3 sun equiv, with just about as unadulterated solar as is physically doable on this planet, with the possible exception of say 1,000 miles out amidst the Sahara ...  I doubt these machine numbers have the lowest 500 feet of explosive super adiabats locked down.

It's a fetish of mine to test MOS in April and May

Not sure that’ll happen up here with snow cover and low wetbulbs. Too much albedo today combined with evap/subliminal cooling. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not sure that’ll happen up here with snow cover and low wetbulbs. Too much albedo today combined with evap/subliminal cooling. 

how much did you wind up with ?

I bet with high sun shining on snow, the dry wet-bulb actually ends up being a sublimation hisser.   It'll be evaporating like dry-ice man.   The sun doesn't just 100% bounce off the snow... it will warm the molecules in air-contact interface, to above the DP temp and that's evaporating quickly. Like an "acid layer" eating into it.  

It's less like melting pack and more like going directly to gas at an accelerated rate that way. 

But obviously.. one wouldn't notice this if you have a ton to start

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI like Tuesday for big warmth and that’s about it.

Yeah, I'm also at the same time a little apprehensive about going super warm at any point prior to getting that fucking piece of shit 90/60 negative anomaly scoured out of the Canadian Shield once an for all.

It's not like it's very readily observable as an influence, but it is definitely an influence our our weather, nonetheless. The polar boundary with the exceptional temperature gradients we've been observing along the S periphery of the rough NP-GL-NE/MA regions is because it is up there, perpetually loading dope cold into those regions ( or attempting to); at the same time there's a CC residue/tendency to go above normal where ever and when ever the sun is working on Industrial stained atmosphere underneath it. Historic heat wave in PHX, notwithstanding.

Lot of descriptive prose in there that probably lost the comprehension of about 6 return users ...with a possible 7th, but excluding those razor sharp contributors to the site brain, most people are aware of both the frequency, and rareness, of 34 to 80 across  a mere 200 miles phenomenon recurring this spring so far.   In addition to steepening the gradient ...it also prones our region to BDs and/or failing warm frontal positions in general.   But, you know ... there are two aspects concurrently true, and are observationally competing.  

We are not hugely below normal in temperatures to date - in fact, +3 in March at HFD and ORH!

The pattern is a colder than normal construct.   

That concurrent state is a nuance that I fully personally believe exposes the fact that heat is merely just suppressed, but not absent. And there is a difference there.  Whopping important one, too.

For one, it's confusing... but for another, it's hard to go multi-day safely in a warm sector while all this stuff is in play.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

White rain all afternoon but snowing again now and quickly coated up 

Light/very light SN 3:30-9:15 PM, brief better flakes accum 0.2" by 4:30 but melted by 5.  2nd band dropped 2.0" of 22:1 feathers 9:15-10:45, a dusting came later.  Fake low of 14 this AM, full sun now.

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