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Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, BrianW said:

Someone needs to fire it up. Already mowed 3 times this year and lawn looks spectacular. 

Before somone comments about chemicals/fertilizer. All I use for fertilizer is purely organics lawn fertilizer from New Hampshire that is made with waste brewery grains. I spot spray weeds with tenacity an all natural weed killer. 

Screenshot_20260407_175540_Gallery.thumb.jpg.e06b0328717183c72f9ae57322aebffb.jpg

Tenacity is great stuff.....I don't use the weed stuff anymore, either....tenacity takes care of it.

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 KFIT   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/08/2026  0000 UTC                       
 WED  08| THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| CLIMO  33 55
 X/N  48| 24  59| 35  66| 44  60| 32  60| 44  70| 55  75|

Heh, nothing like being 20 points above climo at both ends of the diurnal range, at 6 days lead time in a MOS product that is pretty heavily weighted toward climatology at that range ... 

I do think next week is kind of 'first test' for this summer - personally - because I feel this year's season has a shot at some historic heat.  The reason primarily being the pan-dimensional dry antecedent continent, with lower persisting soil moisture anomalies, right as we are about to jump into the highest sun angles of the year.  Keep in mind, we are less than 1 month from solar max entry... on or about May 6.  We just need to shed the 90/60 polar vortex and things can turn around and catch civility off-guard.  We still live in a CC-enraged synergistic heat event planetary system and that's not going away...

This seems to be a good candidate year to test if we send the mercury into over-achieving warm results, both relative to pattern... but relative to "when it gets hot".  Again, we need to get the patterns ...so we'll see.  In the meantime, this next Tues/Wed, if that boundary does hull up NW and leaves our region soaked in WSW flow of dry kinetically charged air mass, that's an opportunity to over perform.  Being 20 over climo weighting at D6 isn't trivial

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30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

I suppose if you have 6 days to know it's coming by the time it does, meh.  

When it comes to na na na-na scaling ( haha ), in order of irate the least is that one. 

3  is knowing for days your fucked.  Oh k... gradual acceptance.

2  is surprisingly BD's ... you'd think they'd be #1 but no...  Usually you have some inkling that a BD is possible.  Also, knowing it's BD time of year ...

1   is when it is warm for days in the charts.  Plans are made.  Then, the models pull the rug at that sweet 36 hours ahead deliberate look.   This rendition is the most annoying.   To help qualify this .. imagine a historic blizzard, not like that isolated SE Mass job last Feb... I mean interior VA to Maine, in 2-3 feet of snow, with a stall off Montauk Point across 2 cycles of Lunar tides, for 5 days of guidance.  Nat Guard is on call... APs are preemptively canceling flights.  General states panic as ems light up FEMA web-site graphic.  General state of dopa O.D. awe

--> 36 hours out that first model run with nothing.  umm

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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just get through tomorrow morning and the last vestiges of winter will be behind us.

image.png

As an aside, today and tomorrow both should bust MOS like 1-3 F I think.

It's not a huge or even noticeable thing.  Not 'busts' per se.  Just that we are Sep 3 sun equiv, with just about as unadulterated solar as is physically doable on this planet, with the possible exception of say 1,000 miles out amidst the Sahara ...  I doubt these machine numbers have the lowest 500 feet of explosive super adiabats locked down.

It's a fetish of mine to test MOS in April and May

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Today and tomorrow both should bust MOS like 1-3 F I think.

It's not a huge or even noticeable thing.  Not 'busts' per se.  Just that we are Sep 3 sun equiv, with just about as unadulterated solar as is physically doable on this planet, with the exception of 1,000 miles out amidst the Sahara ...  I doubt these machine numbers have the lowest 500 feet of explosive super adiabats locked down.

It's a fetish of mine to test MOS in April and May

:weenie:  :weenie:

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As an aside, today and tomorrow both should bust MOS like 1-3 F I think.

It's not a huge or even noticeable thing.  Not 'busts' per se.  Just that we are Sep 3 sun equiv, with just about as unadulterated solar as is physically doable on this planet, with the possible exception of say 1,000 miles out amidst the Sahara ...  I doubt these machine numbers have the lowest 500 feet of explosive super adiabats locked down.

It's a fetish of mine to test MOS in April and May

Not sure that’ll happen up here with snow cover and low wetbulbs. Too much albedo today combined with evap/subliminal cooling. 

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