2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[WxUSAF]

MCD out with 80% chance of a watch for the northern tier

[H2O]

Like I said.  Congrats Bel Air

[mappy]

Sun out

[dailylurker]

15 minutes ago, H2O said:

Like I said.  Congrats Bel Air

Glad I'm moving way NW this winter. I'm already getting sick of hearing "N&W"  

Almost totally clear now and warming up fast. 

[batmanbrad]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

MCD out with 80% chance of a watch for the northern tier

and watch has been posted - actually covers areas further south than the MD depicted...

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 686
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   125 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Maryland
     Southern New York
     Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
     Northern Virginia
     Eastern West Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and intensify
   this afternoon, with the expectation that fast-moving bands/lines of
   storms will evolve with the potential for wind damage.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
   statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of
   Wilkesbarre PA to 80 miles south southwest of Martinsburg WV. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

[yoda]

Hmm... 20/10 tor probs are higher than I expected tbh 

[Eskimo Joe]

Rather impressive to see the warm sector clear out so much. While surface CAPE is small and likely a narrow profile, there's okay lapse rates and respectable shear, which is probably why the DCAPE is decent. I'd still favor north of Mason-Dixon for any more scattered to widespread severe winds, etc.