2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Some bright sun and blue skies here and off to the west.  I think as long as we can get a good 4 to 6 hours of good heating it will be up to the boundaries and chance as you have stated 

I'm not sure I inherently "trust" any of the CAMs in setups like this. Even looking at all of them and taking an "average" can be off. 

I do think the HRRR (probably due to the fact that it's hourly) does tend to eventually latch onto something close to reality - but even then it can have times where it's sim reflectivity for 2 hours in the future doesn't even match reality. 

But yes - we shall see! Wouldn't be surprised if literally nothing happens locally today - but also wouldn't be surprised if there's a decent swath of 50-65mph wind across a good bit of the area. 

[Kmlwx]

The 13z SPC D1 outlook update still keeps us on the outside looking in. 15% well SW of the metro areas.

[Kmlwx]

The HRRR is pretty much nada now as well.

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The HRRR is pretty much nada now as well.

Historically, we do not have multiple severe weather days in these parts. The radar trends in the Ohio Valley are not encouraging for those east of the Potomac River later today.

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Historically, we do not have multiple severe weather days in these parts. The radar trends in the Ohio Valley are not encouraging for those east of the Potomac River later today.

I'm more watching the N IL complex 

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Historically, we do not have multiple severe weather days in these parts. The radar trends in the Ohio Valley are not encouraging for those east of the Potomac River later today.

Completely agree - the obvious answer here is that as repeated MCS activity rolls through - it pushes the overall boundary a little further south each time. Thus - the "train tracks" are more south vs yesterday. 

I think it CAN happen - usually MCSs on the SAME DAY suffer from this more - but it's definitely a factor even next day. 

I think what to watch for is if something to our SW can REALLY get going - perhaps it can throw off a cold pool just east enough to get some development on the "bookend" NW side. 

[SolidIcewx]

13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Completely agree - the obvious answer here is that as repeated MCS activity rolls through - it pushes the overall boundary a little further south each time. Thus - the "train tracks" are more south vs yesterday. 

I think it CAN happen - usually MCSs on the SAME DAY suffer from this more - but it's definitely a factor even next day. 

I think what to watch for is if something to our SW can REALLY get going - perhaps it can throw off a cold pool just east enough to get some development on the "bookend" NW side. 

Those book ends can mean hella business. I remember one from may 2004. Southern tier of counties in MI got smoked at the 2pm hour. Was a kid at the time but those green skies and golf ball size hail were something else.