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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion


Kmlwx
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Quick question for the meteorologists, but after this round initiates will there be back built development? In charge of practice and trying to figure out if I should cancel for the whole day (till 6:15) 

If I was looking at radar and making the call today I’d ax the practice… it’s a taper day before the meet tomorrow anyway. Good luck!
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For Sunday... hmmm

 

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across the lower Great Lakes and
   upper Ohio Valley vicinity through much of the northern Mid Atlantic
   Sunday.

   ...Discussion...
   Downstream of initially amplified mid-level ridging offshore of the
   Pacific coast, models indicate that flow will continue to trend
   cyclonic east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, to the
   south of a broadening vortex centered near southern Hudson Bay. 
   Within this regime, it appears that notable short wave troughing
   will pivot east of the Upper Midwest through the southeastern
   Canadian provinces and Northeast by late Sunday night, accompanied
   by cyclogenesis across the lower Great Lakes through St. Lawrence
   Valley vicinity.  It appears that this may be preceded by the
   remnants of an initially fairly notable mesoscale convective vortex,
   within strengthening westerly flow across the Allegheny/Cumberland
   Plateau through the northern Mid Atlantic by early Sunday evening.

   ...Northeast...
   There remains considerable spread within the latest model output
   concerning the extent of convective potential for this period. 
   Mostly this appears related pre-frontal low-level moisture return
   and destabilization across the upper Ohio Valley into the lee of the
   lower Great Lakes, which could be slowed or impeded by the influence
   of preceding convective outflow.  However, guidance generally
   suggests that destabilization prior to the arrival of the MCV and
   belt of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields (30-40+ kt) will
   be sufficient to support potential for organized severe convection
   east of the Allegheny Mountains through the northern Mid Atlantic by
   late Sunday afternoon.  More substantive strengthening of mid-level
   wind fields and forcing for ascent appear likely to overspread the
   pre-frontal environment across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into
   the lee of the lower Great Lakes region, where it appears increasing
   model output is now suggesting that the evolving warm sector may
   become sufficiently unstable to support a risk for organized severe
   storm development.

   Damaging wind gusts accompanying organizing lines and/or clusters
   appear the primary severe hazard, but there also appears at least
   some potential for a few tornadoes.  It is still possible that
   severe weather probabilities will need to be increased further in
   later outlook updates for this period.

   ..Kerr.. 06/12/2026
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083
NWUS51 KLWX 121825
LSRLWX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
225 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Woolsey            38.84N  77.66W
06/11/2026                   Prince William     VA   Emergency Mngr

            *** 1 Inj *** Thunderstorm wind gust blew person in
            inflatable kayak out into Silver Lake. They were rescued
            in critical condition.


&&

Event Number LWX2606644
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883
NWUS51 KLWX 121642
LSRLWX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1242 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNW Marlton           38.77N  76.79W
06/11/2026  E70 mph          Prince Georges     MD   Broadcast Media

            *** 1 Fatal *** A tree fell onto a person on North
            Marlton Avenue resulting in a fatality. A wind gust was
            estimated to be around 70 mph based on the report of 74
            mph at Andrew Air Force Base about five miles to the
            southeast as well as analysis of the Terminal Doppler
            Radar from Andrews Air Force Base which showed about 70
            mph 375 feet Above Ground Level.


&&

Event Number LWX2606643
  • Sad 1
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601
NWUS51 KLWX 121554
LSRLWX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1152 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Aspen Hill         39.08N  77.06W
06/11/2026                   Montgomery         MD   Emergency Mngr

            *** 1 Fatal *** Tree fell onto a person along the
            Matthew Henson Trail resulting in a fatality.


&&

Event Number LWX2606642
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45 minutes ago, yoda said:
883
NWUS51 KLWX 121642
LSRLWX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1242 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNW Marlton           38.77N  76.79W
06/11/2026  E70 mph          Prince Georges     MD   Broadcast Media

            *** 1 Fatal *** A tree fell onto a person on North
            Marlton Avenue resulting in a fatality. A wind gust was
            estimated to be around 70 mph based on the report of 74
            mph at Andrew Air Force Base about five miles to the
            southeast as well as analysis of the Terminal Doppler
            Radar from Andrews Air Force Base which showed about 70
            mph 375 feet Above Ground Level.


&&

Event Number LWX2606643

Ohh man. I just did work around that area for the utility just this week… there were several hazard trees in that area as well.

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