Kmlwx Posted June 11 Author Share Posted June 11 The LWX specialty warning size lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 With the line/gust front now over LWX radar, the 0.9 and 1.3 degree velocity scans really tell the tale...considerable wind risk in parts of NOVA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Just now, Kmlwx said: The LWX specialty warning size lol Well with LSRs showing numerous trees downed... its justified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 745 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... South central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... The western City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... West central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The northern City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... The north central City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 800 PM EDT. * At 745 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Centreville, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Centreville, South Riding, Fairfax, Vienna, Oakton, Chantilly, Bull Run, Haymarket, Manassas, Sudley, Manassas Park, Fairfax Station, Gainesville, Clifton, and Catharpin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3880 7763 3892 7763 3891 7727 3876 7737 TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 266DEG 43KT 3883 7742 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Well with LSRs showing numerous trees downed... its justified Yes. I have the scanner up for Frederick County, MD and they have a somewhat steady stream of wires/trees calls coming out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Little bit of an enhanced wind from the Middleburg / IAD/ Herndon area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11 Author Share Posted June 11 Next segment of the area warned now. can see the profile of the storms looking west from Odenton, MD right now. Looks cool! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Just now, Kmlwx said: Next segment of the area warned now. can see the profile of the storms looking west from Odenton, MD right now. Looks cool! Piccccsssss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12 Author Share Posted June 12 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Piccccsssss 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Power flickering here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Had the craziest drive from Braddock to west ox via ffx county parkway. Left right as the shelf was coming overhead and made it home right before the rain wall. Gust front was legit, lots of airborne leaves and whatnot. Even managed to buffet my relatively small crv back and forth some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. I have the scanner up for Frederick County, MD and they have a somewhat steady stream of wires/trees calls coming out. It got windy here for sure especially before the downpour commenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 IAD gusted to 50 mph again. Impressive. Fairfax to DC about to get crushed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12 Author Share Posted June 12 The shape of the velocity signature sort of makes me think there's a slight chance of a little kink or enhanced area that may be prone to spin briefly. But certainly not a strong tornado risk or anything - maybe more like a gustnado if that keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Two straight events in which the cams incorrectly weakened a line approaching our area. Wondering if the lack of shear is causing the models to gust these lines out too quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: IAD gusted to 50 mph again. Impressive. Fairfax to DC about to get crushed. The gust front was solid, definitely in the 40s. We’ll see what the next surge has in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12 Author Share Posted June 12 Just now, high risk said: Two straight events in which the cams incorrectly weakened a line approaching our area. Wondering if the lack of shear is causing the models to gust these lines out too quickly. It's interesting because anecdotally we have seen them bring through robust lines only for relative minimums to occur in swaths of our area. But yeah - this has been an interesting season of modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 37 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The LWX specialty warning size lol 97 mi long? This kind of defeats the entire purpose of polygon *storm-based* warnings. We can do better than one giant "carpet bomb" SVR. There should be a limit to a size of a short-fused polygon warning. A large squall line is not necessarily "one-size fits all." And all that has to happen is one wind damage report anywhere in the polygon and it verifies. We should be fine-tuning and getting more detailed w/ warnings, not the other way around. There is real impact (economic and social) from over-warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Next segment of the area warned now. can see the profile of the storms looking west from Odenton, MD right now. Looks cool! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 1 minute ago, high risk said: Two straight events in which the cams incorrectly weakened a line approaching our area. Wondering if the lack of shear is causing the models to gust these lines out too quickly. Depth of the cold pool and surface inversions after the radiation flip over. I think the model cold pools are too shallow and/or the surface inversions are too deep. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12 Author Share Posted June 12 Just now, vortex95 said: 97 mi long? This kind of defeats the entire purpose of polygon *storm-based* warming. Back in the day, entire counties were warned. We can do better than one giant "carpet bomb" SVR. There should be a limit to a size of a short-fused polygon warning. And all that has to happen is one wind damage report anywhere in the polygon and it verifies. We should be fine-tuning, and getting more details w/ warnings, not the other way around. There is real impact (economic and social) from over-warning. It seems like LWX will warn a huge swath and then if an area of considerable or destructive nature shows itself they will put a warning inside of the warning. I can see it from both sides...I think they do it because of the metro corridor honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12 Author Share Posted June 12 1 minute ago, snowfan said: *snip* Our vantage point looks super similar - I could probably yell our "SNOWFAN" and you might hear it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Just now, high risk said: Two straight events in which the cams incorrectly weakened a line approaching our area. Wondering if the lack of shear is causing the models to gust these lines out too quickly. Two thoughts come to mind: 1.) These are machine learning/AI-influenced CAMS that don't yet have the "database" of events to properly articulate when these events die off. 2.) As we saw with April 2011 and the 2012 Derecho, mature MCS complexes persist longer than meso guidance if the downstream airmass is sufficiently unstable. However, the lack of an EML or good jet streak generally isn't enough to sustain the storms much past sunset. There is an eight part YouTube video from Rich Thompson (SPC met) speaking a Univ of Oklahoma and he talks about this extensively. I cannot find the YouTube series unfortunately. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12 Author Share Posted June 12 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: Depth of the cold pool and surface inversions after the radiation flip over. I think the model cold pools are too shallow and/or the surface inversions are too deep. Any reason that it seems to be more prominent this season than prior ones? Or is that just recency bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 2 minutes ago, vortex95 said: 97 mi long? This kind of defeats the entire purpose of polygon *storm-based* warnings. We can do better than one giant "carpet bomb" SVR. There should be a limit to a size of a short-fused polygon warning. A large squall is not necessarily "one-size fits all." And all that has to happen is one wind damage report anywhere in the polygon and it verifies. We should be fine-tuning, and getting more details w/ warnings, not the other way around. There is real impact (economic and social) from over-warning. Agree 9/10 times. IMO, this is the 1 out of 10 times I'll differ given the numerous 250 Anniversary event from Baltimore to DC. In a situation like this, it's just easier to slap down a big polygon and say "it's coming everyone". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12 Author Share Posted June 12 DCA is going to get rocked in a sec. Wind core almost heading right for the airport/Arlington. I see 70+mph pixels on LWX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Wow healthy 60 kt core just south of DCA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Did LWX lose power? Not getting any updates from them and getting internal server errors on their webpage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12 Author Share Posted June 12 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: DCA is going to get rocked in a sec. Wind core almost heading right for the airport/Arlington. I see 70+mph pixels on LWX Actually even see a 75-76mph pixel on the LWX base reflectivity tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12 Author Share Posted June 12 Just now, yoda said: Did LWX lose power? Not getting any updates from them and getting internal server errors on their webpage I can't imagine their page is hosted onsite - but I may be wrong. Probably just coincidental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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