2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[87storms]

I missed out on the Friday storms in Frederick (was in DC/Harbor), so I'm all in.

[high risk]

2 hours ago, Nomz said:

RRFS simref eye candy. Outlier run, but it's fun to look at.

      In the 00Z suite, although they differ greatly on timing and coverage every CAM other than the NAM Nest has convection in our area at some point during Wednesday afternoon in a modestly favorable environment for severe.    I'd say that the initial Day 2 outlook will at a minimum keep us in a MRGL, and a SLGT isn't out of the question.    The only shot at severe is with the open warm sector storms, as whatever is on the front early Thursday will be weak.

[Nomz]

43 minutes ago, high risk said:

      In the 00Z suite, although they differ greatly on timing and coverage every CAM other than the NAM Nest has convection in our area at some point during Wednesday afternoon in a modestly favorable environment for severe.    I'd say that the initial Day 2 outlook will at a minimum keep us in a MRGL, and a SLGT isn't out of the question.    The only shot at severe is with the open warm sector storms, as whatever is on the front early Thursday will be weak.

I definitely think we go slight at some point. It's a bit of a balancing act with the NAM depiction vs some of the other models (thread the needle...). The NAM has a faster 700mb jet, which leads to a better EML over our area, but leaves subsidence in the exit region of the jet. The other models are much slower with the 700mb flow, so the EML is much weaker (<750 CAPE), but we are in the favorable area of the jet, so we get decent forcing for ascent and actual convection.