March 2026

[PhiEaglesfan712]

32 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Dont you live in Philadelphia? How do you make these declarative statements for a region you're not even part of. 

Closer to the Philly are, but whether it be NYC or PHL, most of the snowstorms that happened after March 15 are in the middle or or immediately following a very cold period. Just look at 1956, 1958, or 2018, for example. This is not the case this year. Most of the area had 70+ highs today. That's not the weather that preceeds a 2nd half of March snowstorm.

This isn't the New England region, where the sun angle as weaker and snow is a more common occurrence after March 15.

[NEG NAO]

7 hours ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Hit 70 F from northern Monmouth southwest to Delaware.

Parts of northern most Middlesex County reached 72 - all depended on how much sunshine you received which varied widely from town to town.

[MJO812]

Models are much flatter with the storms for next week in regards to snow. Just need more amplification. 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models are much flatter with the storms for next week in regards to snow. Just need more amplification. 

that is going to vary model run to model run until we get much closer to the potential - still over 200 hours away - important thing right now is that it is showing up around the same time period on several different OP models and Ensemble Means run after run...

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

that is going to vary model run to model run until we get much closer to the potential - still over 200 hours away - important thing right now is that it is showing up around the same time period on several different OP models and Ensemble Means run after run...

Agree. I like the pna spiking here.

[NEG NAO]

This potential is reminding me of this March storm

Snow storm, March 18, 1994 - Storm Summary

[MJO812]

Euro has nothing for the possible snow event. Onto the models later on.

[TriPol]

Enjoy the warm weather guys. May we reach 80 degrees quickly!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

This potential is reminding me of this March storm

Snow storm, March 18, 1994 - Storm Summary

This is the Central Park in March 1994 leading up to the event:

1994-03-01	38	24	31.0	-7.8	34	0	0.00	0.0	2
1994-03-02	30	26	28.0	-11.0	37	0	0.40	4.0	2
1994-03-03	35	27	31.0	-8.2	34	0	0.62	1.0	7
1994-03-04	48	30	39.0	-0.5	26	0	0.00	0.0	7
1994-03-05	45	34	39.5	-0.2	25	0	0.00	0.0	5
1994-03-06	42	30	36.0	-4.0	29	0	T	T	4
1994-03-07	50	33	41.5	1.3	23	0	0.00	0.0	4
1994-03-08	48	35	41.5	1.0	23	0	0.12	0.0	1
1994-03-09	36	30	33.0	-7.7	32	0	0.29	T	T
1994-03-10	46	32	39.0	-2.0	26	0	1.62	0.0	T
1994-03-11	47	31	39.0	-2.2	26	0	0.00	0.0	T
1994-03-12	46	26	36.0	-5.5	29	0	0.00	0.0	T
1994-03-13	52	33	42.5	0.7	22	0	T	0.0	T
1994-03-14	54	41	47.5	5.4	17	0	0.00	0.0	T
1994-03-15	55	41	48.0	5.7	17	0	0.11	0.0	T
1994-03-16	45	24	34.5	-8.1	30	0	T	T	0
1994-03-17	37	21	29.0	-13.9	36	0	0.02	0.3	T
1994-03-18	33	25	29.0	-14.2	36	0	0.26	2.8	0

Highs were in the 30s, 40s, and 50s in the lead-up to the snowstorm. That is nothing like we have this year. Highs are going to be in the 70s the next few days. Unless you live in New England, you are not getting a snowstorm from here on out. The ground is just too warm and the sun angle is too high.

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

I wonder if we will be saying that about the cold and snow too at some point in the second half of the month - various models are signaling a large east coast storm at some point with polar/arctic air involved

Generally looks like the magnitude of any colder weather during mid to later March will be of a weaker magnitude than the warmth this week. 

 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

Enjoy the warm weather guys. May we reach 80 degrees quickly!

This time of year the temps will usually overshoot guidance-leaves aren’t on the trees yet so less evapotranspiration. When the high is supposed to be 65, expect 70 as long as winds aren’t onshore which is always another question. 

[EastonSN+]

In keeping with the 1970s comparison;

1.) NYC hit 70+ three times in March of 1977:

March 10: 70

March 29: 78

March 30: 75

March 31 close with 69

2.) NYC hit 80+ three times in April 1977:

April 12: 85

April 13: 85

April 22: 83

Can we get as warm as 1977? Would be nice for a change.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This is the Central Park in March 1994 leading up to the event:

1994-03-01	38	24	31.0	-7.8	34	0	0.00	0.0	2
1994-03-02	30	26	28.0	-11.0	37	0	0.40	4.0	2
1994-03-03	35	27	31.0	-8.2	34	0	0.62	1.0	7
1994-03-04	48	30	39.0	-0.5	26	0	0.00	0.0	7
1994-03-05	45	34	39.5	-0.2	25	0	0.00	0.0	5
1994-03-06	42	30	36.0	-4.0	29	0	T	T	4
1994-03-07	50	33	41.5	1.3	23	0	0.00	0.0	4
1994-03-08	48	35	41.5	1.0	23	0	0.12	0.0	1
1994-03-09	36	30	33.0	-7.7	32	0	0.29	T	T
1994-03-10	46	32	39.0	-2.0	26	0	1.62	0.0	T
1994-03-11	47	31	39.0	-2.2	26	0	0.00	0.0	T
1994-03-12	46	26	36.0	-5.5	29	0	0.00	0.0	T
1994-03-13	52	33	42.5	0.7	22	0	T	0.0	T
1994-03-14	54	41	47.5	5.4	17	0	0.00	0.0	T
1994-03-15	55	41	48.0	5.7	17	0	0.11	0.0	T
1994-03-16	45	24	34.5	-8.1	30	0	T	T	0
1994-03-17	37	21	29.0	-13.9	36	0	0.02	0.3	T
1994-03-18	33	25	29.0	-14.2	36	0	0.26	2.8	0

Highs were in the 30s, 40s, and 50s in the lead-up to the snowstorm. That is nothing like we have this year. Highs are going to be in the 70s the next few days. Unless you live in New England, you are not getting a snowstorm from here on out. The ground is just too warm and the sun angle is too high.

February, but in a sea of warmth we had a snowstorm. I mean 60s and 70s and it snowed.

It all has to do with intensity, track and cold air. Basically all the normal ingredients we just lose some light snow during daytime ability.

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This is the Central Park in March 1994 leading up to the event:

1994-03-01	38	24	31.0	-7.8	34	0	0.00	0.0	2
1994-03-02	30	26	28.0	-11.0	37	0	0.40	4.0	2
1994-03-03	35	27	31.0	-8.2	34	0	0.62	1.0	7
1994-03-04	48	30	39.0	-0.5	26	0	0.00	0.0	7
1994-03-05	45	34	39.5	-0.2	25	0	0.00	0.0	5
1994-03-06	42	30	36.0	-4.0	29	0	T	T	4
1994-03-07	50	33	41.5	1.3	23	0	0.00	0.0	4
1994-03-08	48	35	41.5	1.0	23	0	0.12	0.0	1
1994-03-09	36	30	33.0	-7.7	32	0	0.29	T	T
1994-03-10	46	32	39.0	-2.0	26	0	1.62	0.0	T
1994-03-11	47	31	39.0	-2.2	26	0	0.00	0.0	T
1994-03-12	46	26	36.0	-5.5	29	0	0.00	0.0	T
1994-03-13	52	33	42.5	0.7	22	0	T	0.0	T
1994-03-14	54	41	47.5	5.4	17	0	0.00	0.0	T
1994-03-15	55	41	48.0	5.7	17	0	0.11	0.0	T
1994-03-16	45	24	34.5	-8.1	30	0	T	T	0
1994-03-17	37	21	29.0	-13.9	36	0	0.02	0.3	T
1994-03-18	33	25	29.0	-14.2	36	0	0.26	2.8	0

Highs were in the 30s, 40s, and 50s in the lead-up to the snowstorm. That is nothing like we have this year. Highs are going to be in the 70s the next few days. Unless you live in New England, you are not getting a snowstorm from here on out. The ground is just too warm and the sun angle is too high.

Temps leading up to it have no effect - and ground temps adapt fast to any cold air present at the time the precip is falling - we have had accumulations on the ground in October - I think you know this but are just trying to cause confrontations here along with a couple others- but I am going to keep the conversation professional

 

[EastonSN+]

Not saying winter is over. We still have another window. However add another myth debunked to the list:

Debunked:

We no longer see benchmark storm tracks.

Added to the following Debunked myths:

Western pacific ocean temps mean constant MJO 456 phases.

NAO always connecting to the SE ridge.

Ocean temps mean the SE ridge is unstoppable.

Fast flow is now unstoppable.

Clippers are extinct.

 

[Evie3]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Closer to the Philly are, but whether it be NYC or PHL, most of the snowstorms that happened after March 15 are in the middle or or immediately following a very cold period. Just look at 1956, 1958, or 2018, for example. This is not the case this year. Most of the area had 70+ highs today. That's not the weather that preceeds a 2nd half of March snowstorm.

This isn't the New England region, where the sun angle as weaker and snow is a more common occurrence after March 15.

There are exceptions to that reasoning, the most extreme one that came to mind was the blizzard of 1888.  It was unseasonably mild and raining just before that event.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 minutes ago, Evie3 said:

There are exceptions to that reasoning, the most extreme one that came to mind was the blizzard of 1888.  It was unseasonably mild and raining just before that event.

I checked the climate summary, and it looks like it was very cold leading up to the March 1888 snowstorm:

1888-03-01	40	28	34.0	-4.8	31	0	0.00	0.0	M
1888-03-02	33	27	30.0	-9.0	35	0	0.00	0.0	M
1888-03-03	37	15	26.0	-13.2	39	0	0.05	0.0	M
1888-03-04	24	12	18.0	-21.5	47	0	0.00	0.0	M
1888-03-05	22	12	17.0	-22.7	48	0	0.01	0.3	M
1888-03-06	23	10	16.5	-23.5	48	0	0.00	0.0	M
1888-03-07	30	17	23.5	-16.7	41	0	0.00	0.0	M
1888-03-08	31	21	26.0	-14.5	39	0	0.00	0.0	M
1888-03-09	40	23	31.5	-9.2	33	0	0.00	0.0	M
1888-03-10	45	27	36.0	-5.0	29	0	0.00	0.0	M
1888-03-11	42	33	37.5	-3.7	27	0	0.65	0.0	M
1888-03-12	33	8	20.5	-21.0	44	0	1.45	16.5	10
1888-03-13	12	6	9.0	-32.8	56	0	0.00	3.0	M

 

[SACRUS]

42 / 41 and sunshine.  The first mostly sunny day in over a week and 70s for many away from the coast.  Same Tuesday and Wed is a matter of timing the arrival of the front / clouds.  Showers and light rain possible overnight Wed into Thu.  Cooler but drier beyond there and into this coming weekend 13-14-15.  Much chillier next week with the potential late winter storm - likely a north and New England focused one.   A bit back and forth by the 21st and overall near to above avg to close the month.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 82 (2016)
NYC: 77 (2016)
LGA: 75 (2016)
JFK: 67 (1973)


Lows;

EWR: 10 (1996)
NYC: 11 (1996)
LGA: 14 (1996)
JFK: 13 (1996)

 

Historical:

 

1891: From March 9 through the 13th, a blizzard struck southern England and Wales with gale-force winds. 220 people were killed; 65 ships foundered in the English Channel, and 6,000 sheep perished. Countless trees were uprooted, and trains were buried. Up to a foot of snow and snowdrifts of 11.5 feet were reported in Dulwich, London, Torquay, Sidmouth, and Dartmouth.

1922: Dodge City, KS set its all-time 24-hour snowfall record as 17.5 inches fell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1943: The temperature at Lac Frontiere, ME fell to -40°. This is the coldest ever March reading in New England. Further south, Baltimore, MD recorded a high barometer reading of 30.96 inches of mercury (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1948: Blizzard conditions of 9th-10th (and resultant snow cover) whitened much of KS. All-time KS March record cold of -25 °F in Oberlin, Healy and Quinter on the 11th as a result. March records of -15 °F (Dodge City) and -3 °F Wichita) also on 11th. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA)

1956 - A whopping 367 inches of snow was measured on the ground at the Ranier Paradise Ranger Station in Washington. The snow depth was a state record and the second highest total of record for the continental U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1960 - A winter storm produced a narrow band of heavy snow from north central Kentucky into Virginia and the mountains of North Carolina. Snowfall amounts ranged from 12 to 24 inches, with drifts up to eleven feet high in western Virginia. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Gale force winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Some places were 50 degrees colder than the previous day. Northeast winds, gusting to 60 mph, produced 8 to 15 foot waves on Lake Michigan causing more than a million dollars damage along the southeastern shoreline of Wisconsin. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

 

1988 - A cold front brought high winds to the southwestern U.S. Winds in the Las Vegas Valley of Nevada gusted to 70 mph, and one person was injured by a falling tree. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-two cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. In New Mexico, afternoon highs of 72 at Los Alamos, 76 at Ruidoso, and 79 at Quemado, were records for March. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in West Texas. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 71 mph at Lubbock, and golf ball size hail was reported at several other locations. Strong thunderstorm winds injured two persons north of the town of Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2013: A supercell over eastern Oahu in Hawaii produced 4.25" hail NW of Kailua, the largest hailstone ever recorded in Hawaii. The storm also spawned a tornadic waterspout that came ashore and caused EF-0 damage. 

[SACRUS]

Daylight 11:h38M

Gained 2H23M since the lull

Roughly  equivalent to October 3rd

 

Gaining a peak of 2M40+s daily

[SACRUS]

Quickly up to 51 here
 

[Brian5671]

Torching today!  Let's get rid of these filthy snowpiles today

[Poker2015]

Kalshi has NYC over/under 71 today. What side are we on? lol

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not saying winter is over. We still have another window. However add another myth debunked to the list:

Debunked:

We no longer see benchmark storm tracks.

Added to the following Debunked myths:

Western pacific ocean temps mean constant MJO 456 phases.

NAO always connecting to the SE ridge.

Ocean temps mean the SE ridge is unstoppable.

Fast flow is now unstoppable.

Clippers are extinct.

 

How can you debunk statements which were never made in the first place? This was our first winter with benchmark KU events since January 2022. There wasn’t a statement made that we would never see benchmark storm tracks again. What was discussed was how long it would take for them to return and what mechanism would be involved.

All it took was one of the earliest November stratospheric warming events related to the -QBO and record low sea ice. But such events aren’t well forecast much in advance.

Record Western Pacific SSTs mean frequent MJO 4-7 phases but not always constant. This was our first successful MJO 8 event since January 2022.

The NAO has frequently been connecting with the Southeast Ridge but not 100% of the time. In fact, the Southeast Ridge link up back in December with the -NAO worked in our favor with the strong -WPO to prevent suppression and deliver a snowy clipper.

Record warm ocean temps mean the Southeast ridge has been dominant but intervals when it relaxes have occurred from time to time.

Fast flow is an increasing feature as the planet warms. But we saw the first relaxation of this pattern for the blizzard in late February for just long enough for all the pieces to come together in years.

Snowy Clippers were very infrequent prior to December and we finally got two great ones after a long hiatus.

In reality what we have experienced has been a shift to all or nothing snowfall seasons since the 1990s. So our winters either swing for fences like this winter and and get a bunch of home runs or we strike out like the prior 3 winters. The sense of balance like we used to have with frequent 18-29”snowfall seasons prior to the 1990s has been lacking.

So now it’s mostly under 20” or even 15” seasons and over 30”. The challenge with this type of regieme is that we need some exotic device to get the great snowfall outcomes like this winter with one of the earliest SSW in 75 years. 

We have been doing better than a place like State College which hasn’t had a great Miller A east of the APPS track in over 20 years. So they have been missing out with all the Great Lakes cutters west of the APPS and benchmark tracks which favor the coast. 

[EastonSN+]

When will we break this one:

"The earliest in the year that New York City had a high temperature of at least 80 °F is March 13 which happened in 1990."

[SHELEG]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

When will we break this one:

"The earliest in the year that New York City had a high temperature of at least 80 °F is March 13 which happened in 1990."

What about Feb 2018?

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

When will we break this one:

"The earliest in the year that New York City had a high temperature of at least 80 °F is March 13 which happened in 1990."

I would have thought Feb 2018 had an 80 in NYC?

[rclab]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

When will we break this one:

"The earliest in the year that New York City had a high temperature of at least 80 °F is March 13 which happened in 1990."

Good morning ESN+. For us it will probably occur just before a more dramatic redo of the Blizzard of 88. Stay well, as  always …..

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

What about Feb 2018?

 

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I would have thought Feb 2018 had an 80 in NYC?

Close on February 21 2018 it hit 78 (old record was 68 in 1930 which stood for 88 years!!!!)

 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not saying winter is over. We still have another window. However add another myth debunked to the list:

Debunked:

We no longer see benchmark storm tracks.

Added to the following Debunked myths:

Western pacific ocean temps mean constant MJO 456 phases.

NAO always connecting to the SE ridge.

Ocean temps mean the SE ridge is unstoppable.

Fast flow is now unstoppable.

Clippers are extinct.

 

Also add that we need a volcanic eruption for a snowy winter.