March Madness

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

gotta watch this potential 

Watch it go 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had one great event just before Xmas, but other than that it was a nightmare.

how many inches?

[SouthCoastMA]

I don't think one ensemble member or op run is interesting for that timeframe. I'd rather not. That has been locked in like Monday's cutter. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Watch it go 

just had a deja voo and what happens next is this one doesn't work out but we have a major storm after this one can't remember if it was a snow event or not but i swear just had a deja voo

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

how many inches?

I had like 15" over several hours, but some spots had like 2'...insane rates. Ayer, MA had like 8" in an hour. If everything lines up, you can get some crazy dynamics with the amount of moisture available, but the warmth that comes with it is often prohibitive.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had like 15" over several hours, but some spots had like 2'...insane rates. Ayer, MA had like 8" in an hour. If everything lines up, you can get some crazy dynamics with the amount of moisture available, but the warmth that comes with it is often prhbibitive.

oh that's a nice storm! i wish i lived in Traverse City for the next week right now

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I don't think one ensemble member or op run is interesting for that timeframe. I'd rather not. That has been locked in like Monday's cutter. 

I haven't viewed a model since my blog last week....says all you need to know.

[BrianW]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But the drought monitor….

Yeah makes no sense here to be in moderate drought.. Most river and groundwater sensors are much above or extremely above in CT. Closest ground water sensor to me went from like 9ft to 2 the last year.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have managed to score in all of the super El Ninos, except 2015-2016 because that blizzard just missed me to the south.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't viewed a model since my blog last week....says all you need to know.

it's almost over but i just had a deja voo with  with @CoastalWxill be peeking at the models until april 1st

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1997-1998 had some...doesn't matter...too much heat.

The 97-98 super Nino winter actually wasn’t a huge torch. It was just too warm to snow. There were a bunch of coastal storms with temps in the 30’s. The problem was it was extremely east-based, region 1+2 was over +4.0C, a secondary area of convective forcing formed there, which completely displaced the Aleutian Low over Alaska (++EPO) and the EPO floodgates were wide open all winter long with PAC air inundating Canada and the CONUS

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's almost over but i just had a deja voo with  with @CoastalWxill be peeking at the models until april 1st

I can tell by the vibe and feedback from certain posters on here when I need to look.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 97-98 super Nino winter actually wasn’t a huge torch. It was just too warm to snow. There were a bunch of coastal storms with temps in the 30’s. The problem was it was extremely east-based, region 1+2 was over +4.0C, a secondary area of convective forcing formed there, which completely displaced the Aleutian Low over Alaska (++EPO) and the EPO floodgates were wide open all winter long with PAC air inundating Canada and the CONUS

Yea, well...I didn't say it was 90 degrees....but when it's too warm to snow in New England during winter, that is kind of a torch.  I didn't say it the warmest winter ever...

[40/70 Benchmark]

At least we know it will be active next year...welcome change. Yes, we also know temps will be a big issue, but I am done with stein seasons....so positive there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The first thing to watch this summer into the fall is the PDO....I think it will finally flip positive, but can't have that remain negative, or we are going to end up with that pig ridge right over S Canada again, like 2023-2024...... -PDO/strong El Nino is awful. 1972-1973 was another one.

[dendrite]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But the drought monitor….

Dry af up here. Can’t believe I’m saying this, but hopefully we get drenched this spring. This little bit of water from snow melt won’t last long.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's almost over but i just had a deja voo with  with @CoastalWxill be peeking at the models until april 1st

You wild 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Dry af up here. Can’t believe I’m saying this, but hopefully we get drenched this spring. This little bit of water from snow melt won’t last long.

Different story up there. No argument from me.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Dry af up here. Can’t believe I’m saying this, but hopefully we get drenched this spring. This little bit of water from snow melt won’t last long.

I’m sure this will be the summer where it rains every other day up there screwing up lake time while it’s stein and 94/74 here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure this will be the summer where it rains every other day up there screwing up lake time while it’s stein and 94/74 here. 

I'm not a summer-seasonal guy, but I've heard it probably won't be that hot...

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not a summer-seasonal guy, but I've heard it probably won't be that hot...

Yep many have said that 

[weatherwiz]

In about 15 or 16 days the CMC will get into May 

[WeatherGeek2025]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The first thing to watch this summer into the fall is the PDO....I think it will finally flip positive, but can't have that remain negative, or we are going to end up with that pig ridge right over S Canada again, like 2023-2024...... -PDO/strong El Nino is awful. 1972-1973 was another one.

you think we have a warm and humid summer? I sure hope not

[WeatherGeek2025]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You wild 

you too right? 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you think we have a warm and humid summer? I sure hope not

Technically as we are a continental climate type, our summers are defined as being warm and humid, so yes it will be a warm and humid summer

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not a summer-seasonal guy, but I've heard it probably won't be that hot...

Wet/ humid seems to be consensus . Lots of storms 

[jbenedet]

Normal temps behind the “cold” front 

 

noice.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dry af up here. Can’t believe I’m saying this, but hopefully we get drenched this spring. This little bit of water from snow melt won’t last long.

There may be a 4 or hr period of heavy rains with embedded/elevated thunder ... Sunday overnight.  

It's been in the all the guidance for days really.   Mainly, I've suspended much thought because I've seen that "warm sector dent" many times in the past then flatten out in short range. There's a stalwart persistence in this case, also being shared among multi guidance. So maybe it has legs.

Mild wet warm sector on Monday.   Euro QPF illustration with what looks like isolated quasi SCs that afternoon.  heh

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

There may be a 4 or hr period of heavy rains with embedded/elevated thunder ... Sunday overnight.  

It's been in the all the guidance for days really.   Mainly, I've suspended much thought because I've seen that "warm sector dent" many times in the past then flatten out in short range. There's a stalwart persistence in this case, also being shared among multi guidance. So maybe it has legs.

Mild wet warm sector on Monday.   Euro QPF illustration with what looks like isolated quasi SCs that afternoon.  heh

We'd probably see a marginal risk if not for the crappy timing

[Brian5671]

at least no one will stress about their snowpack not surviving the cutter....lol