March Madness

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sorry to keep harping this but I'm astounded by 70+ air blowing across fields packed over by snow

what the holy f is going on

My son was pissed about a local disc golf course still being snow covered after all this. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's right....we seem to be running a bit behind my 2018 analog....February SSW was late and so isn't the record heat from February.

I swear my 2018 analog is just running 2-3 weeks behind...Feb 12, 2018 zonal wind reversal/PV split....March 4, 2026 reversal/PV split....Feb 21-22, 2018 record heat-bomb.....March 9-10, 2026 record heat-bomb. Seasonable cold and stormy pattern will follow, but unfortunately the details don't look to work out as favorably as they did that year....those are the breaks....snowfall is pretty similar, though, as January and February were snowier that year. Unfortunately, that 2-3 weeks will ruin our closing act of snowfall.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I swear my 2018 analog is just running 2-3 weeks behind...Feb 12, 2018 zonal wind reversal/PV split....March 4, 2026 reversal/PV split....Feb 21-22, 2018 record heat-bomb.....March 9-10, 2026 record heat-bomb. Seasonable cold and stormy pattern will follow, but unfortunately the details don't look to work out as favorably as they did that year....those are the breaks....snowfall is pretty similar, though, as January and February were snowier that year. Unfortunately, that 2-3 weeks will ruin our closing act of snowfall.

So right order just pushed up, maybe an April snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

So right order just pushed up, maybe an April snow.

Getting the pattern right is hard enough, but also timing it to fit the sequence correctly within these 30 day increments that the calendar is divided into?

Good luck-

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Getting the pattern right is hard enough, but also timing it to fit the sequence correctly within these 30 day increments that the calendar is divided into?

Good luck-

Impressive your call this year.

[CoastalWx]

That’s funny because I’m surprised how quickly I lost this pack. And it had some moisture in it too. But 2015 in my opinion was the most resilient, that thing wouldn’t budge for whatever reason.

[DavisStraight]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That’s funny because I’m surprised how quickly I lost this pack. And it had some moisture in it too. But 2015 in my opinion was the most resilient, that thing wouldn’t budge for whatever reason.

It was packed tight from the wind and weight. Up here i have mud, hoping for freezing nights soon.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Impressive your call this year.

I wrote in this year's piece about how analogs are not mean to be interpreted as precise, absolute reenactments, but rather cast of actors that each have a cameo throughout the course of a film .....some of my big ones have showed up....2014 (+TNH), 2022 (+TNH), Latter January big dog, 2000, early season reversal, 2018, late season SSW followed by record warmth. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s funny because I’m surprised how quickly I lost this pack. And it had some moisture in it too. But 2015 in my opinion was the most resilient, that thing wouldn’t budge for whatever reason.

But it wasn't up against as hostile conditions...March was cold.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But it wasn't up against as hostile conditions...March was cold.

Even when we had rain it barely moved. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Perfect way to develop a composite...come up with a cast of characters, and explain that none of them are intended to be an exact prototype of the coming seasons, and then explain the role that each season will play and when it will appear. This what I love about winter forecasts...such an art form.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Even when we had rain it barely moved. 

Yea, we haven't had much of that...coming later this week. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wrote in this year's piece about how analogs are not mean to be interpreted as precise, absolute reenactments, but rather cast of actors that each have a cameo throughout the course of a film .....some of my big ones have showed up....2014 (+TNH), 2022 (+TNH), Latter January big dog, 2000, early season reversal, 2018, late season SSW followed by record warmth. 

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Perfect way to develop a composite...come up with a cast of characters, and explain that none of them are intended to be an exact prototype of the coming seasons, and then explain the role that each season will play and when it will appear. This what I love about winter forecasts...such an art form.

I also wrote about the value of 2015, despite that it was a warm ENSO....highly anomalously cold several week stretch from +TNH regime January into Feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Very strong -QBO and high solar is a dead-ringer for +TNH....that crap about solar max always being warm is BS....solar max and conspire with certain stratospheric set ups to facilitate some of the most consistently cold regimes possible.

[DavisStraight]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wrote in this year's piece about how analogs are not mean to be interpreted as precise, absolute reenactments, but rather cast of actors that each have a cameo throughout the course of a film .....some of my big ones have showed up....2014 (+TNH), 2022 (+TNH), Latter January big dog, 2000, early season reversal, 2018, late season SSW followed by record warmth. 

I get that Ray that's why I thought it was a good forecast. Not an A+ here but damn good for my first Maine winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

I get that Ray that's why I thought it was a good forecast. Not an A+ here but damn good for my first Maine winter.

Yea, wasn't intended to be a lecture or anything....I just happen to quote your post because we were discussing. Thanks, I appreciate the positive feedback. It was not perfect and I do see room for improvement...will all be discussed in May.

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s so nice out….but it’s mostly useless this time of year since we still have snow pack or soggy ground where wet it just recently melted. You can’t do shit except walk in the street, lol. 
 

Oh well, back to dogshit tomorrow. Too bad next week couldn’t pan out. Cutter, cold, cutter, cold. 

Up here where the flizzard gave us 6” I was able to get some yard work done today. I cleared the “wooded” side of my driveway. Cut down 2 bushes. Ripped out 3 stumps and began the winter limb pile.

[kdxken]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s funny because I’m surprised how quickly I lost this pack. And it had some moisture in it too. But 2015 in my opinion was the most resilient, that thing wouldn’t budge for whatever reason.

It was incredible. I bought a new ATV right before the snow. I was dying to ride it. Kept waiting and waiting and when March arrived I thought I'd give it a go. Buried it after about 10 ft. By the time I shoveled it out it looked like it was down in a pit. I wish I had a picture.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Part of the problem is the first reversal attempt narrowly failed...it succeeded on Feb 12, 2018.

 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

It was incredible. I bought a new ATV right before the snow. I was dying to ride it. Kept waiting and waiting and when March arrived I thought I'd give it a go. Buried it after about 10 ft. By the time I shoveled it out it looked like it was down in a pit. I wish I had a picture.

It was deep still in areas in the woods. Not sure why Ray had to spray is snowpack with the hose. 

[VivaManchVegas]

So we hit 77 at the house.  Thank you. That was good.  I was not around to see it.  In Killington for an epic day.  It was too warm in the early afternoon but it was still worth the visit.  Started the day with 144 trails.  It was my son's first day to a "big" mountain. One he is not going to forget. 

 

 

[KoalaBeer]

We allowed to talk severe wx in here for the heart of the country? Those regional forums are dead.

That is an insane tornado in IL.

The trajectory of that OKC cell is worrisome if it decides to touchdown something meaningful….