aldie 22 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just to clarify...is this an obs thread or an opinion thread? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, bncho said: The NAM has started. Prepare to get demolished. No need. My guess is there are people in this thread already waiting for a tow truck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Ughhh 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, bncho said: how mt. mclean does this i'm not sure. Lived in McLean for 8 years a bit south of Great Falls Park. Snow did seem to accumulate well — and better — there. Always enjoyed drive home from work in DC heading north up GW Pkwy to McLean/Great Falls, enjoyed watching how the snowpack got better the further up the Pkwy I got. DC green, McLean white. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazywxwatcher Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 First post. Long time lurker and previous member of other weather forums. Writing from Lancaster, PA - right in the middle of the county. Tough forecast here but seems NWS has it about correct at 6-12" but could still boom or bust depending on the western edge of the deformation band early Monday. Our low guidance is about 6" Euro and high is about 16-20" on short range NAM/RAP/HRRR. The latter three all rotate bands deep into PA as the storm bombs out. Hope you DC-Balto folks get your snow. Seems a broad 3-8" but lots of boom or bust scenarios down that way as well. First obs: 31.3 here, dpt29. Clear skies. Will prob climb late with some mixing and cloud cover. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 At the house in DC right now it's 44F. At the house down in Calvert it's already down to 37F. A good omen, going back down there in the AM to make final preps. Going out to the cabin at DCL on Thursday, they currently have a WSW for 6-12" so I think I'm gonna get my snow fix no matter what. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Still snowing at 21z on the HRRR lol . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, lazywxwatcher said: First post. Long time lurker and previous member of other weather forums. Writing from Lancaster, PA - right in the middle of the county. Tough forecast here but seems NWS has it about correct at 6-12" but could still boom or bust depending on the western edge of the deformation band early Monday. Our low guidance is about 6" Euro and high is about 16-20" on short range NAM/RAP/HRRR. The latter three all rotate bands deep into PA as the storm bombs out. Hope you DC-Balto folks get your snow. Seems a broad 3-8" but lots of boom or bust scenarios down that way as well. First obs: 31.3 here, dpt29. Clear skies. Will prob climb late with some mixing and cloud cover. Howdy neighbor! Just east of you in paradise, pa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Quick question. When is the snow supposed to start? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, IronTy said: At the house in DC right now it's 44F. At the house down in Calvert it's already down to 37F. A good omen, going back down there in the AM to make final preps. Going out to the cabin at DCL on Thursday, they currently have a WSW for 6-12" so I think I'm gonna get my snow fix no matter what. 42.6F here in the District highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 For all you clown map whores, here’s the Model Ratio snow from the HRRR. This is better than Kuchera as it takes into account more variables and verifies better than Kuchera from experience. Nice run for many. 3 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridgie04 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Shoutout for bhoncho. Bring it home next gen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 42 in McLean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 40.3/27.9 will be interesting to see what the temp is tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: For all you clown map whores, here’s the Model Ratio snow from the HRRR. This is better than Kuchera as it takes into account more variables and verifies better than Kuchera from experience. Nice run for many. 16 for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 35.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: For all you clown map whores, here’s the Model Ratio snow from the HRRR. This is better than Kuchera as it takes into account more variables and verifies better than Kuchera from experience. Nice run for many. I'd like to request a refund please 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazywxwatcher Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Thewiledcard said: Howdy neighbor! Just east of you in paradise, pa. Might be a steep gradient through this area. You are in the best spot in the county for heavy snow - the far eastern part! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 NAM has Low over outer banks at 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Clown Map Whores would be a good metal band name 2 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 10 minutes ago, bncho said: how mt. mclean does this i'm not sure. My wife has (had) extended family in Mclean. When we first built our house in Calvert 20yrs ago they came down to check it out and we were talking about decorating. He said, and I quote "you don't have to do anything too fancy, it's not like you're in Mclean or anything". Must be the elevation, they're good at looking down on the rest of us lol. Jokes on him now...but that's OT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, mappy said: 16 for me Yeah. That was insane. Surprisingly, these runs haven’t been on an island. Storm is so massive, so perhaps a nice little surprise? I’d take 70% of what that was and be happy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, H2O said: Clown Map Whores would be a good metal band name Insane Clown Whore Posse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: NAM has Low over outer banks at 12 Prior runs had it east of OBX, didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, mappy said: 16 for me 8" - 12" for me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: 42.6F here in the District highlands. I just checked the temp out at DCL and it's also 37F out there, same as eastern Calvert. Not sure what to make of that but I'll take it for Calvert's snowfall potential's sake. UHI in DC though boooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 alberta vort phases on the NAM, looks very 18z esque so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Insane Clown Whore Posse? Insane Clown Map Posse Wooo wooo! We are Mapaloos 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 am I going to believe this NAM 12k panel verbatim? yes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, H2O said: Insane Clown Map Posse Wooo wooo! We are Mapaloos Fun fact, when I lived in Michigan, ICP was local and they stored all their music gear in a nearby storage location. One night somebody broke into it and stole all their shit and it was the big news in the area for like a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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