Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[aldie 22]

Just to clarify...is this an obs thread or an opinion thread?

[mitchnick]

Just now, bncho said:

The NAM has started. Prepare to get demolished.

No need. My guess is there are people in this thread already waiting for a tow truck.

[mappy]

Ughhh

[Herb@MAWS]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

how mt. mclean does this i'm not sure.

Lived in McLean for 8 years a bit south of Great Falls Park. Snow did seem to  accumulate well — and better — there. Always enjoyed drive home from work in DC heading north up GW Pkwy to McLean/Great Falls, enjoyed watching how the snowpack got better the further up the Pkwy I got. DC green, McLean white. 

[lazywxwatcher]

First post.  Long time lurker and previous member of other weather forums.  Writing from Lancaster, PA - right in the middle of the county. 

Tough forecast here but seems NWS has it about correct at 6-12" but could still boom or bust depending on the western edge of the deformation band early Monday.  Our low guidance is about 6" Euro and high is about 16-20" on short range NAM/RAP/HRRR.  The latter three all rotate bands deep into PA as the storm bombs out.  

Hope you DC-Balto folks get your snow.  Seems a broad 3-8" but lots of boom or bust scenarios down that way as well.  

First obs:  31.3 here, dpt29.  Clear skies.  Will prob climb late with some mixing and cloud cover.

[IronTy]

At the house in DC right now it's 44F.  At the house down in Calvert it's already down to 37F.  A good omen, going back down there in the AM to make final preps.  Going out to the cabin at DCL on Thursday, they currently have a WSW for 6-12" so I think I'm gonna get my snow fix no matter what. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Still snowing at 21z on the HRRR lol


.

[Thewiledcard]

1 minute ago, lazywxwatcher said:

First post.  Long time lurker and previous member of other weather forums.  Writing from Lancaster, PA - right in the middle of the county. 

Tough forecast here but seems NWS has it about correct at 6-12" but could still boom or bust depending on the western edge of the deformation band early Monday.  Our low guidance is about 6" Euro and high is about 16-20" on short range NAM/RAP/HRRR.  The latter three all rotate bands deep into PA as the storm bombs out.  

Hope you DC-Balto folks get your snow.  Seems a broad 3-8" but lots of boom or bust scenarios down that way as well.  

First obs:  31.3 here, dpt29.  Clear skies.  Will prob climb late with some mixing and cloud cover.

Howdy neighbor! Just east of you in paradise, pa.

[adelphi_sky]

Quick question. When is the snow supposed to start? Asking for a friend.

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

At the house in DC right now it's 44F.  At the house down in Calvert it's already down to 37F.  A good omen, going back down there in the AM to make final preps.  Going out to the cabin at DCL on Thursday, they currently have a WSW for 6-12" so I think I'm gonna get my snow fix no matter what. 

42.6F here in the District highlands.

[MillvilleWx]

For all you clown map whores, here’s the Model Ratio snow from the HRRR. This is better than Kuchera as it takes into account more variables and verifies better than Kuchera from experience. Nice run for many. 
 

[bridgie04]

Shoutout for bhoncho. Bring it home next gen


.

[bncho]

42 in McLean 

[H2O]

40.3/27.9

 

will be interesting to see what the temp is tomorrow morning

[mappy]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

For all you clown map whores, here’s the Model Ratio snow from the HRRR. This is better than Kuchera as it takes into account more variables and verifies better than Kuchera from experience. Nice run for many. 
 

16 for me  

[aldie 22]

35.8

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

For all you clown map whores, here’s the Model Ratio snow from the HRRR. This is better than Kuchera as it takes into account more variables and verifies better than Kuchera from experience. Nice run for many. 
 

I'd like to request a refund please

[lazywxwatcher]

1 minute ago, Thewiledcard said:

Howdy neighbor! Just east of you in paradise, pa.

Might be a steep gradient through this area.  You are in the best spot in the county for heavy snow - the far eastern part!

[LeesburgWx]

NAM has Low over outer banks at 12

[H2O]

Clown Map Whores would be a good metal band name

[IronTy]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

how mt. mclean does this i'm not sure.

My wife has (had) extended family in Mclean.  When we first built our house in Calvert 20yrs ago they came down to check it out and we were talking about decorating.  He said, and I quote "you don't have to do anything too fancy, it's not like you're in Mclean or anything".  Must be the elevation, they're good at looking down on the rest of us lol. 

Jokes on him now...but that's OT. 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

16 for me  

Yeah. That was insane. Surprisingly, these runs haven’t been on an island. Storm is so massive, so perhaps a nice little surprise? I’d take 70% of what that was and be happy  

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Clown Map Whores would be a good metal band name

Insane Clown Whore Posse? 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

NAM has Low over outer banks at 12

Prior runs had it east of OBX, didn't it?

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

16 for me  

8" - 12" for me  

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

42.6F here in the District highlands.

I just checked the temp out at DCL and it's also 37F out there, same as eastern Calvert.  Not sure what to make of that but I'll take it for Calvert's snowfall potential's sake.  UHI in DC though boooo.

[bncho]

alberta vort phases on the NAM, looks very 18z esque so far

[H2O]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Insane Clown Whore Posse? 

Insane Clown Map Posse

Wooo wooo! We are Mapaloos

[Paleocene]

am I going to believe this NAM 12k panel verbatim?

yes

[IronTy]

Just now, H2O said:

Insane Clown Map Posse

Wooo wooo! We are Mapaloos

Fun fact, when I lived in Michigan, ICP was local and they stored all their music gear in a nearby storage location.  One night somebody broke into it and stole all their shit and it was the big news in the area for like a week.