2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[gunny23]

28 minutes ago, bncho said:

It's PBP time. Depending on how how I do will determine whether I do this again.

Remember that I will likely make mistakes. I will probably overreact and jump to conclusions. And I will probably overexaggerate every minute change. Please bear with me though, as these are the most important 0z runs of the 2020s.

Euro AI running.

We got you l'il dude.  I appreciate your enthusiasm and your PBP.  I am old but when I see your posts vs Randy's, it's like a Spike  Chester thing (IYKYN).  Keep going!

[Nomz]

Anyone got EPS?

[jayyy]

Yep... the GFS has been locked in since Wednesday... until that changes... I do buy any other model

Would be pretty wild to see the GFS hold this all the way thru but I guess crazier things have happened.

Also, that inverted trough throws a huge ? Into this storm. Some area between 15 and 95 will see a rather impressive bonus. I’d HATE to be NWS trying to make a forecast for the area from Winchester to Baltimore down to DC right now.

[jayyy]

PSA - I’m proud to see no LR HRRR or SREF plumes on here. Way to go team.

[CAPE]

Look at the upper levels. A lot going on with the vorticity interplay. Subtle differences aloft impact what happens at the surface- specifically the surface low development and track. Lets look at the latest GFS, CMC , and Euro at h5-Best outcome to worst.

It really comes down to the strength, timing, and the angle of the individual pieces of vorticity and how they phase, which impacts the tilt of the overall trough. One of the above looks a bit different than the other 2. Pretty subtle, but different. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

PSA - I’m proud to see no LR HRRR or SREF plumes on here. Way to go team.

They were deleted.

[SnowDreamer]

8 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Anyone got EPS?

At hour 48 the mean MSLP is East of 18Z run, and looks to be almost exactly where the OP LP is. Backs up the OP

[stormtracker]

Re: Euro : Well…

But anyway, Im in a club literally like this 

[stormtracker]

But on the real, yall really need to get it together. Yall are embarrassing. It’s one run of run model. Wait to see a trend and wait for model support. Euro isn’t the be all end all 

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But on the real, yall really need to get it together. Yall are embarrassing. It’s one run of run model. Wait to see a trend and wait for model support. Euro isn’t the be all end all 

the Euro is trash... It is all about the GFS train.

[MickeyTim6533]

EPS East...Rug pull begins?

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But on the real, yall really need to get it together. Yall are embarrassing. It’s one run of run model. Wait to see a trend and wait for model support. Euro isn’t the be all end all 

The EURO doesnt have the outcome quite right at this juncture, but it will adjust.

[SNOWCREATURE1]

I have the distinct impression that long after AI has solved the mysteries of the universe, dark energy and matter, aliens, and the like - we still won't be able to forecast the accumulation from east coast snow storms. It's the final frontier of science! 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

EPS East

At this point the ens is going to pretty much mirror the op run.

[snowcane33]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

I wasn't here at that time but the P-day blizzard of 79 was epic.

Both of those storms here in Harrington were the worst snow storms I have ever witnessed in my life. That was back in my high school days. Geez I'm getting old...lol

 

[jayyy]

But on the real, yall really need to get it together. Yall are embarrassing. It’s one run of run model. Wait to see a trend and wait for model support. Euro isn’t the be all end all 

You know damn well you’d be shitting your pants if you were home, Randy!

[Amped]

After looking at the Euro further I believe it's coastal low is misplaced. This is not how a typical occluded low looks. There should be a double barrel low with one surface low at the east end of the coma head at the triple point and another one at the west end with a curved band connecting the two.

The Euro has one funny looking low in the middle with a little hat of precip to the north. 

The Gfs and Icon have a much easier to understand solution, the surface low forms right where the 500mb energy hits the coast.

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The EURO doesnt have the outcome quite right at this juncture, but it will adjust.

And the million dollar question is...adjust which way? We shall see...

[jayyy]

But on the real, yall really need to get it together. Yall are embarrassing. It’s one run of run model. Wait to see a trend and wait for model support. Euro isn’t the be all end all 

All jokes aside though— we’d probably all feel much more confident in this if the majority of guidance didn’t put our CWA on the western fringe of the coastal and we had the euro on board. GFS takes a very delicate setup and portrays a near perfect dance between multiple pieces of energy. And it’s been damn impressive to see it stick to its guns. I hope to fucking hell it’s right for once. Crazier things have happened.

The others try and some get very close but don’t quite get there, which is still also a possible outcome. Or something in between. We’re 2 days out. A spread of 4-18+” on models 48 hours out for DC to Baltimore is pretty rough lol. I’d feel MUCH better if I’m CAPE or the Jersey shore to BOS. Still a little shaky in these parts given the setup, especially west of 95. Hopeful the inverted trough pans out and somebody between 15 and 95 gets smacked. Can def understand the anxiety given the possible gradient around these parts - especially for the western crew.

I feel good, Randy. I’d love to feel great.

[jayyy]

Hot off the presses… LWX pushes watches ever so slightly SW to include bay adjacent counties west of the bay and SE Howard. MOCO and DC left out still.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
146 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

MDZ014-017-018-506-211500-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/
Anne Arundel-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast Howard-
146 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 inches
or more are possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Calvert, and
St. Marys Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially Sunday night
into Monday morning. The hazardous conditions could impact the
Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

[Amped]

Also, the gfs has a lot more precip and higher pwat values ahead of the storm over the  Carolinas, Va, and Ohio Valley. That helps lower surface pressures further northwest and favors a northwest track. 

[Roger Smith]

I see tell-tale signs that GFS will win this battle. Moderate snow in Kansas is the signature of the phasing northern stream energy. The storm that tracked through southern UT-CO more or less died out as a dry weak circulation over nw TX and the primary low is developing further east now, around s AR, n/c MS into nw AL. 

If there's any model compromise it will be along the lines of 3:1 GFS:Euro. But it may be even better than that. 

[jayyy]

I see tell-tale signs that GFS will win this battle. Moderate snow in Kansas is the signature of the phasing northern stream energy. The storm that tracked through southern UT-CO more or less died out as a dry weak circulation over nw TX and the primary low is developing further east now, around s AR, n/c MS into nw AL. 
If there's any model compromise it will be along the lines of 3:1 GFS:Euro. But it may be even better than that. 

I haven’t been paying enough attention to the minute details to fully understand what you mean here. The storm in southern UT-CO you’re referring to… what’s the significance of it dying out in NW TX to our storm and it unfolding more like the GFS? (TIA!)

[Roger Smith]

That detail is probably shared by most guidance but the outbreak of moderate snow in KS is the main point, that is a good sign that phasing is underway and the energy is not currently that far behind the new location of the primary. It's a pressure jump situation for the primary but that factor alone is not telling me much because all guidance starts to develop the energy from the Carolinas. 

[jayyy]

That detail is probably shared by most guidance but the outbreak of moderate snow in KS is the main point, that is a good sign that phasing is underway and the energy is not currently that far behind the new location of the primary. It's a pressure jump situation for the primary but that factor alone is not telling me much because all guidance starts to develop the energy from the Carolinas. 

Got it. Appreciate the insight

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z HRRR low stalls off Delmarva, intensifies, and slowly slides East. Showing 9pm and 1am positions. Winds  also a factor 20-50mph on the coast.  Only thing keeping this from a crippling storm is surface temps which stay above freezing until 9-10 pm.  If this is too warm, look out!

 

[Jake Wx]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z HRRR low stalls off Delmarva, intensifies, and slowly slides East. Showing 9pm and 1am positions.

changes over to rain for a couple hours, besides that run would have been very good 

[WxMan1]

Ugh, just woke up after going down just before the GFS ran. Talk about swings. It's like watching a recorded game seeing your team up big at halftime, only to see it slipping away in the second half. 

Not jumping off the bandwagon yet, but gotta hope certain aspects of the ECMWF and AIFS aren't gonna become trends. That's is, um, where did the inverted trough go per the EC camp? 

That and a weaker surface low father offshore? It's like the EC runs of a couple days ago all over again. And I have to tell you, the CMC/GEM wasn't overly inspiring either, with the low farther offshore and much of our area in between the inverted trough band west and mega CCB band over the Eastern Shore.

Lastly, the low over the VA Capes giving way to the new forming low off the NJ will need to be monitored. That can really screw with our totals. Remember a few winters back when Central Park had about 11" when they were supposed to get 2-3 feet (while areas east of them did)? That was the result of a similar quick transfer of energy. Not that 11" would be bad! But it was more than half less than what was anticipated. 

Damn this storm is littered with land mines. BTW 06Z HRRR Kuchera through 06Z Mon. Still snowing..

[Weather Will]

6Z NAMs weaker so far, not as intense.  Ex. WB 6Z 3K NAM 1 pm Sunday compared to 0Z.  Not as intense, not consolidating energy and going negative tilt.

[Jake Wx]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

6Z NAMs weaker so far, not as intense.

makes sense, prior runs were too amped imo