Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS

[Army Mike]

So far it looks like the 6z runs have reduced snow totals compared to prior runs. Heavy returns seem to be staying up north more. I'm don't have the ability to post maps. Still looks like a 8-12 for the metro Philly area and more towards the shore

[ChescoWx]

9 minutes ago, Army Mike said:

So far it looks like the 6z runs have reduced snow totals compared to prior runs. Heavy returns seem to be staying up north more. I'm don't have the ability to post maps. Still looks like a 8-12 for the metro Philly area and more towards the shore

6z not reduced much....

[Joshb32689]

16 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

6z not reduced much....

MQS range between HRRR and NAM is identical to our upgraded winter storm warning of 16-22”. Sounds like a solid call at the moment. Now just gotta pull the trigger on the blizzard warning - make it official. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
256 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...

.A major winter storm is expected to develop today, impacting the region with very heavy, crippling snowfall and areas of blizzard conditions. Precipitation will develop today, changing to all snow this afternoon and evening. The most severe conditions and heaviest snowfall will occur tonight, with snow gradually tapering off during the daytime Monday. Record breaking snowfall totals are possible.

Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery- Including the cities of Oxford, Honey Brook, West Chester, Collegeville, Pottstown, and Kennett Square 256 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 16 and 22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
 

[bringmesnow1]

Blizzard warnings extended inland including I-95.

[The Iceman]

1 minute ago, bringmesnow1 said:

Blizzard warnings extended inland including I-95.

I made sure to screenshot that, the current mt holly map is a thing of beauty 

[The Iceman]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
256 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY...

.A major winter storm is expected to develop today, impacting the
region with very heavy, crippling snowfall and areas of blizzard
conditions. Precipitation will develop today, changing to all snow
this afternoon and evening. The most severe conditions and heaviest
snowfall will occur tonight, with snow gradually tapering off during
the daytime Monday. Record breaking snowfall totals are possible.

PAZ070-071-104>106-222100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1200Z-260223T2300Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/
Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Chalfont, Doylestown, Lansdale,
Philadelphia, Morrisville, Media, Perkasie, and Norristown
256 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  between 16 and 22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Delaware, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, Philadelphia,
  and Upper Bucks Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches and result in isolated
  power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per
  hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts and significant drifting of
  snow possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with
your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

[bringmesnow1]

19 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I made sure to screenshot that, the current mt holly map is a thing of beauty 

We'd better win the fucking gold today for me to be missing this lmao!

[Duca892]

I am kind of real surprised that the winter storm warning for places like Lehigh/Berks has been upped to 10-20in of snow. I think they must real be buying into these short range mesos

[Hurricane Agnes]

Mt. Holly's latest just before 4 am - 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Wanted to start adding some obs since there has been some light liquid precip this morning IMBY.  Currently some intermittent light drizzle (not enough to tip the bucket but walks and streets are wet) and 37, with dp 34.

[Duca892]

Kind of surprised there isn’t more of a concern in this sub about the gradient on the west getting even tighter and shifts east. Unless it’s just more nowcasting than anything

[Newman]

8 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Kind of surprised there isn’t more of a concern in this sub about the gradient on the west getting even tighter and shifts east. Unless it’s just more nowcasting than anything

The ticks east in the NAM, GFS, and HRRR guidance are very noticeable, we may start to be seeing Berks/Lehigh on the western fringe now with significantly less totals IF models are right. I'm still inclined to believe banding reaches further west but we will 100% have to now cast with this

[Duca892]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

The ticks east in the NAM, GFS, and HRRR guidance are very noticeable, we may start to be seeing Berks/Lehigh on the western fringe now with significantly less totals IF models are right. I'm still inclined to believe banding reaches further west but we will 100% have to now cast with this

It’s why I’ve been very confident in 4-8in for Lehigh Valley and Berks. 

[wkd]

5 minutes ago, Newman said:

The ticks east in the NAM, GFS, and HRRR guidance are very noticeable, we may start to be seeing Berks/Lehigh on the western fringe now with significantly less totals IF models are right. I'm still inclined to believe banding reaches further west but we will 100% have to now cast with this

@Newman What map (800, 700mb) would you recommend to see where banding is likely to set up?   I use tropical tidbits.

[Hurricane Agnes]

6z EC running and continues that trend...

[LanghorneSnow]

Didn’t they sample the atmosphere? Am I using the correct terminology? I swear I saw someone mention the Hurricane Hunters were flying into the system to collect data. Who gets that data imported? Do all models use that data, or only some?

[Newman]

7 minutes ago, wkd said:

What map (800, 700mb) would you recommend to see where banding is likely to set up?   I use tropical tidbits.

Tropical tidbits 700mb temp advection/frontogenesis as well as the h700 heights/vorticity map.

You can see on the GFS the 700mb fronto band continuing to trend east pretty clearly. But again, it's now casting time. It'll soon be time to watching observations and mesoanalysis as to where the bands actually set up.

[Hurricane Agnes]

[NJHurricane]

National Park NJ, across the river from PHL

6:30 am
Light rain/drizzle
36f

[Hurricane Agnes]

8 minutes ago, Newman said:

Tropical tidbits 700mb temp advection/frontogenesis as well as the h700 heights/vorticity map.

You can see on the GFS the 700mb fronto band continuing to trend east pretty clearly. But again, it's now casting time. It'll soon be time to watching observations and mesoanalysis as to where the bands actually set up.

6z Euro is sort of showing the same with something setting up along the Jersey coast.

[MickeyTim6533]

[LizardMafia]

30F and some light snow here in Saylorsburg. 

Totals up here have climbed from the 3-7" range on Friday up to over a foot now.  

Was getting so close to see many grass for the first time since early January..  

 

[Voyager]

35 minutes ago, Newman said:

The ticks east in the NAM, GFS, and HRRR guidance are very noticeable, we may start to be seeing Berks/Lehigh on the western fringe now with significantly less totals IF models are right. I'm still inclined to believe banding reaches further west but we will 100% have to now cast with this

You're not the only one thinking this. Blizz, in our CPA sub feels the same way. Still, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about ending up in the screw zone up here in the coal region. It's happened too many times to not think it's a viable scenario.

[Blue Dream]

I’ve seen enough, heading out to get a yardstick.  My ruler won’t do for this storm. 

[coastal front]

Man for us on the coast this may very well become the benchmark storm. 

[Kevin Reilly]

Cloudy 36f humidity 97% dew point 35f

Wet out there was a few showers 0.01”

My snow expectations 10-14” here in Central Delaware County 

[Mikeymac5306]

At the airport. Spitting rain at the terminal. 38 degrees.  Plane on time! 

 

Have a fun day kids! Stay safe!

[Kevin Reilly]

https://radar.weather.gov/station/kdix/standard
 

So is that rain or sleet just south of Dover creeping north?

 

 

[Blue Dream]

1 minute ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

At the airport. Spitting rain at the terminal. 38 degrees.  Plane on time! 

 

Have a fun day kids! Stay safe!

Damn!  Missing this one?  Safe travels, man. 

[Ej257 snow lover]

Light snow in Nazareth, Pa since 7am. Starting to see it stick to the grass